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Jet financiers worry as Iran war increases fuel and borrowing costs

Fuel and borrowing costs are now the top concern of jet financiers. This is a significant shift from years of disruption caused by supply.

Recent market turmoil has confirmed the shift in mood. This includes?airBaltic?s bankruptcy, an increase in oil prices tied to the advances of?Yemen?s Houthis?in the Middle East War, and a rise in U.S. Treasury Yields.

I feel that the market is changing. Thomas Baker, CEO of Aviation Capital Group and host of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading's (ISTAT) event, said that he believes winter will be more cold (financially speaking) than people anticipate.

Analysts have warned that fuel prices could increase in the next few months, putting pressure on smaller airlines.

AVIATION WAVE COULD 'STALL OR CRASH'

Speakers at ISTAT in Florida, which started 43 years ago as an informal gathering of second hand aircraft dealers, spoke about the shortages of engines and aircraft that drove up prices and lease rates.

While manufacturing bottlenecks still exist, many executives see them as a buffer to a possible slowdown in the demand, rather than the main challenge for their industry.

Bertrand Dehouck told delegates that it was "pretty shocking" how fast things had changed.

He added that "the wave of aviation, which has been going on for quite a while, could crash or stall pretty dramatically in the winter, when (typically) the difficulties in the market come to light, especially in Europe."

Andy Cronin is the CEO of Avolon aircraft leasing. He said that concerns over interest rates have risen quickly, even though some supply chain pressures are easing.

He said: "You have a sharp decline in engine and parts shortages, and a rapid rise in concern about interest rates."

Cost of borrowing is a critical factor for aircraft lessors. They control half of the world's airline fleet, and heavily rely on debt financing.

Investing in the wrong airline can be detrimental for many years. Cronin says that misjudging liability can "kill your business very fast".

OIL OVER 100 A BARREL A Pain Point

Some delegates said that rising fuel prices had cooled the activity on the second-hand market. They noted that some lease rates were falling by 5% to 10%.

"I believe this will bite pretty fast. Ted O'Byrne is the CEO of Saudi lessor AviLease. He said that at $100 per barrel, "mid-life business models (for aircraft) have to hurt."

Executives said that they are debating, for the first year in years, what could trigger a return of overcapacity. However, plane?and part shortages will not be eased anytime soon.

Baker said: "I believe it is a intermediate bump."

New investors have not been deterred from entering aviation finance. This is a positive development for the industry, but it can be a source for competition among lessors who are pursuing the same aircraft assets.

Mounir Kuzebari, the co-CEO at Novus Aviation Capital, said: "The pie just isn't big enough for everyone, particularly on the leasing front."

Executives said that there was no immediate sign that the higher fuel costs and increased borrowing costs were responsible for a significant decline in travel demand.

Paul Sheridan is the CEO of Aergo Capital which specializes in mid-life jets.

Some executives believe that the next crisis could be outside of aviation. They cite crises such as the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX jets for safety reasons and the idling hundreds of Airbus A320neo planes due to engine bottlenecks.

"I would not be surprised if an exogenous event breaks this cycle." Baker told the delegates that it could be geopolitical or the bond market, but the cause of the break will be unknown.

(source: Reuters)