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Brazil's corn harvest is a challenge for the export season

Analysts say that Brazil's corn will face new challenges as the shipping season begins, with logistical issues possible, China buying less and the United States expected to be a strong competitor.

They said that corn exports will increase in volume for 2024/25, but they could also face bottlenecks, as they would have to compete with each other for space in the ports, if China's continued demand for Brazil’s record soybean harvest in 2025.

According to government projections the corn production in Brazil is expected to reach 128.3 millions metric tons this season, a 11% increase from last season's cycle.

StoneX, a consultancy, estimates Brazilian exports to be 42 million tonnes, an increase from last season's 38 million tons.

Raphael Bulascoschi of StoneX, an analyst, noted that China, which is a major buyer of Brazilian corn for 2022 and 2023 needs less imports following a bumper crop. The United States, too, could have a record harvest, competing with Brazil on external markets.

Bulascoschi stated, "We will need to find buyers for our export surplus."

Francisco Queiroz, an analyst at Itau BBA, said that Brazil's exports will be dependent on countries such as Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam. He said, however, they don't have the same capacity as China. (Reporting and writing by Roberto Samora, Fabio Teixeira and Mark Porter; editing by Mark Porter).

(source: Reuters)