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Storms, drone strikes and record oil exports put pressure on Russian port Novorossiisk

Three market sources reported that the Black Sea port in Russia, Novorossiisk, has reached its export capacity limit. This leaves traders scrambling to find a new route for crude oil, which it is unable to refine at home and can only produce because of increased OPEC+ quotas. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have been easing up on output restrictions.

In addition, Russia's refining facilities carried out record amounts of maintenance in August, and September. This was partly due to damage caused by Ukrainian drones. As a result, its ability to process crude oil domestically has been reduced, and it now exports more.

RECORD EXPORTS & REFINERY OUTAGES

Refinery failures pushed Russia's monthly exports to a new record of 2.5 million barrels. Sources and estimates claim that the exports of Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light crude through Transneft’s pipeline system reached 0.8m bpd, the highest in at least five-years. According to market sources, the preliminary plan for October indicates that crude shipments will be at least 0,73 million bpd through Novorossiisk.

The Transneft System has virtually no spare capacity, according to a source from a Russian oil firm who spoke under condition of anonymity as he wasn't authorized to speak in public.

Transneft, the Russian pipeline monopoly, declined to comment.

Export plans may be revised upwards if drone attacks cause damage. In 2025, drones and unmanned boats have repeatedly disrupted Russia's oil infrastructure. Transneft, the trunk pipeline system of Transneft, as well as several refineries, have all been targeted.

In the months to come, there is a greater risk of disruption as storms frequently occur in Novorossiisk, which can cause delays and impede loading, while the Turkish Straits can also be a problem. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022 Russia has lost several buyers for pipeline-delivered oil, including Germany and Poland. This has increased its dependence on seaborne products.

Other options for Russia to export crude oil by sea are Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Kozmino in the Pacific, but diverting away from the Black Sea oil hub, Novorossiisk can be technically difficult. Barbara Lewis (Reporting and editing)

(source: Reuters)