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What occurs when Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine stops?

Ukraine will not extend its gas transit arrangement with Russia after it expires after Dec. 31 2024, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal informed Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Here is what occurs if gas is switched off and who will be impacted most.

HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?

Russian gas products to Europe by means of Ukraine are reasonably small. Russia delivered about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas by means of Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe by means of different routes in 2018-2019.

Russia invested half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.

Moscow lost its share to competitors such as Norway, the United States and Qatar because the intrusion of Ukraine in 2022, triggering the EU to cut its reliance on Russian gas.

EU gas rates rallied in 2022 to tape highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally will not be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of clients for the staying volumes, according to EU officials and traders.

UKRAINIAN ROUTE

The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia through the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.

In Slovakia, the gas pipeline divides into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.

Austria still receives most of its gas through Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.

Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy huge Gazprom each year, also about two-thirds of its needs.

Czech Republic practically entirely cut gas imports from the east in 2015, but has actually begun taking gas from Russia in 2024.

The majority of other Russian gas paths to Europe are shut consisting of Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.

The only other functional Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the Black Sea. Turkey sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe consisting of to Hungary.

WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?

While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are little, the problem stays a problem for the EU. Numerous EU members such as France and Germany have actually stated they would not purchase Russian gas any longer however the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common method.

The nations, who still get Russian gas, argue it is the most financial fuel and likewise blame neighbouring EU nations for imposing high transit fees for alternative products.

Ukraine still makes $0.8-$ 1 billion in transit costs from Russian gas transit. Russia makes over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on a typical gas cost of $200 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to Reuters estimations.

Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a. bottom line of $7 billion in 2023, its very first yearly loss given that. 1999, since of the loss EU's gas markets.

Russia has stated it would be ready to extend the transit deal. however Kyiv has consistently said it will not do it.

Another alternative is for Gazprom to provide some of the gas by means of. another route, for example through TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or. Hungary. However, capacity through these paths is restricted.

The EU and Ukraine have actually likewise asked Azerbaijan to assist in. conversations with Russia concerning the gas transit deal, an Azeri. presidential consultant told Reuters, who declined to offer further. information.

(source: Reuters)