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Exclusive: Canada's Trans Mountain Pipeline lowers its forecasts of the amount of oil that it will ship
Documents filed by Trans Mountain Oil Pipeline's operator reveal that the company has revised its forecasts of how much oil will flow through the system in the next three-year period, due to the fact that the pipeline is being used less than anticipated. Trans Mountain's lower forecasts filed with Canada Energy Regulator by Trans Mountain last month were not previously reported. Analysts said that the lower forecasts show oil companies' unwillingness to pay the higher tolls Trans Mountain, owned by the government, has charged customers to transport oil via the newly expanded pipeline. The pipeline is not using 20% of its capacity, reserved for spot shipments, because the shipping costs are much higher than those on the Enbridge Mainline, North America's largest crude pipeline, which transports oil from Western Canada to Eastern Canada and U.S. Midwest markets. These lower estimates raise doubts about the Trans Mountain Pipeline's ability generate revenue and attract private sector buyers. Ottawa has stated that it will eventually sell the pipeline. The lower expected usage is also a sign of the difficulty in diversifying Canadian oil imports from the U.S. which purchases 90% of Canadian crude. Trans Mountain is Canada’s only east-west operating pipeline, and its only outlet for Asia and markets outside the U.S. Analysts and Trans Mountain themselves have stated that business could quickly improve if U.S. president Donald Trump slaps a tariff on Canadian oil. In May 2024, the expanded pipeline of 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), which runs from Alberta up to Canada's Pacific Coast coast, will begin service. Trans Mountain predicted that the pipeline would be used 96% of the time in 2025, which is its first year of operation, and this was as recent as November. The latest documents don't show the pickup the pipeline operator anticipated. Trans Mountain shipped only 18,500 barrels per day (bpd) of spot cargoes in its first eight-month period, as opposed to the forecast 30,600. Total utilization for 2024 was 77%, far below the forecasted 83%. According to the new forecasts, pipelines will be 84% full by this year, 88% in 2026, and 92% in 2027. It is now expected that the pipeline will not reach 96% utilization before 2028. Trans Mountain's spokesperson told an email sent to Tuesday that spot shipments are dependent on factors such as Canadian crude production, differentials in crude oil prices at global hub markets, and rates for marine freight. Analysts pointed to massive budget overruns in construction and the fact that Trans Mountain raised its tolls for customers last spring. The total construction cost was C$34 billion. This is nearly five times the 2017 estimate. Trans Mountain will bear approximately 70% of the cost overruns, but the remaining third - more than $9 billion - is considered to be "uncapped costs", which increases tolls according to a formula that was agreed upon by shippers and approved more than 10 years ago by the Canada Energy Regulator. Trans Mountain estimated that contracted shippers would pay more than twice as much in 2017. Spot shippers are charged even higher toll rates. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Cenovus Energy, two of the largest contracted shippers, have resisted. This year, a regulatory hearing will be held to determine if the toll increases are fair. 'PROBLEM with Pipelines' Trans Mountain's main competitor, Enbridge Mainline, which transports crude oil to the U.S. Midwest, and eastern Canada offers 100% spot-capacity. The tolls on this line are about half of Trans Mountain's. In an email sent on Tuesday, Enbridge's spokesperson stated that the demand for space along the Mainline from shippers has been greater than the supply "for the majority of months" since Trans Mountain opened. Rory Johnston is an energy analyst who founded the Commodity Context Newsletter. He said that Trans Mountain's revised estimates show that shipping via the pipeline has become "too costly" for certain oil producers. Johnston stated that "this is the fundamental issue with pipelines and why it is so hard to get private actors into this space any more." Richard Masson is a former CEO of Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and executive fellow at University of Calgary School of Public Policy. Uncertainty remained about whether oil would be included as part of President Donald Trump’s announcements on tariffs, expected to take place Wednesday. Masson stated that Trans Mountain volumes could change at a moment's notice if conditions in the U.S. change. Trans Mountain has also reduced its revenue forecasts for the next three year as a result. Trans Mountain's revenue forecasts for 2025 have been reduced from an earlier estimate of $3.0 Billion to $2.7 Billion, $2.9 Billion from an estimate of $3.1Billion for 2026 and $3.0Billion for 2027. (Reporting and editing by Caroline Stauffer, David Gregorio, and Amanda Stephenson)
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US regulator suspends Colonial Pipeline’s proposed changes in fuel shipping terms
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has issued an order suspending Colonial Pipeline's proposed fuel shipping terms changes for seven months. Colonial Pipeline requested FERC approval last month in order to stop shipping gasoline of different grades at the same rate and reduce the number of grades that it transports on the pipeline. A filing shows that the regulator accepted and suspended for seven months the revised tariff record to reflect modifications proposed. The regulator will conduct a paper-based hearing to examine the concerns raised by Colonial Pipeline, fuel shippers and other stakeholders. Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp, as well as BP Plc, filed protests with the regulator. They cited potential harm to consumers and shippers in order to increase Colonial profits. Colonial dismissed the arguments and said they were driven by protesting shippers who focused on their own economy. It claimed that the proposed changes would allow it to ship an additional 10,000 barrels of gasoline per day on its main pipeline which is almost always full. This will benefit both shippers as well as consumers. Colonial Pipeline has not responded to the request for comment. Reporting by Nicole Jao, New York
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Denmark's Maersk buys Panama Canal Railway Company
Canadian Pacific Kansas City announced on Wednesday that it and U.S. based Lanco Group sold the Panama Canal Railway Company, to a Danish unit of Maersk, one of world's largest container shippers. The Canadian Railway Company did not disclose the terms of the agreement, but said that it would allow them to focus on their core assets in Canada and the U.S. Keith Svendsen said that the acquisition was "an attractive infrastructure investment for our core services, intermodal container movements" in the region. The Panama Railway Company, a joint-venture between Canadian Pacific and Lanco Group units, provides rail-based passenger and freight services along the canal. Last year, it posted revenue of $77 millions. The deal is made at a moment when the administration of U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to seize the canal, which was built by the United States in 1999 and returned to Panama. This threat stems from allegations that foreign influence, particularly China, is increasing. Hong Kong's CK Hutchison agreed last month to sell key port near the Panama Canal, to a group headed by BlackRock. This had helped ease some of Trump's pressure. The deal that was originally scheduled to be signed by this week is now expected be delayed due to China's criticism. Reporting by Aishwarya Jain, Bengaluru. Editing by Leroy Leo
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Kuwait cuts power as demand exceeds capacity
Kuwait, an oil-rich country, cut off electricity temporarily in certain industrial and agricultural zones on Wednesday due to a surge in demand caused by the hot weather. This was outstripping power plant generating capacity which had been limited because of maintenance. Kuwait, which is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), resorted last summer to load-shedding, for the first time since years, due to an increase in demand, urbanization and delays with plant maintenance. According to posts on X by the Ministry of Electricity, Wednesday's power outages lasted for less than two hours. The temperature has risen about 10 degrees in the last week, reaching a maximum of 38 degrees Celsius (100,4degF) Wednesday. The summer temperatures in the Gulf often exceed 50 degrees Celsius. The ministry has asked residents to reduce electricity consumption in general, and particularly between 11:00 am and 05:00 pm (0800 and 1440 GMT). Last summer, Kuwait imported electricity from Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (GCCIA), a grid interconnected between Gulf countries. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and QatarEnergy signed a contract in August to import 3,000,000 tons of liquefied gas per year to meet the rising demand for electricity generation. As part of its efforts to avoid an even longer-term power shortage, the country signed a framework with China last week to develop renewable energy with a total capacity of 3,500 megawatts. (Reporting and editing by Yousef Sabah and Joe Bavier; Reporting by Ahmed Hagagy)
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TotalEnergies divests Finnish wind farm and acquires Canadian renewables
By America Hernandez PARIS, 2 April - French oil giant TotalEnergies signed agreements on Wednesday with RES, world's biggest independent renewables company, to purchase nearly one gigawatt of their wind and solar project in Canada. This includes the recently-commissioned 184 megawatts (MW) Big Sky Solar Project in Alberta, plus more than 800 MW of solar and wind farms in development in the Canadian Province. Total wants to expand its renewables business by 2025. It aims to increase the capacity of its installed power from 26 GW currently, and reach 35 GW. The company is focusing on growing liberalised markets, where it can both produce the electricity but also sell or trade the energy. The remaining electricity will be sold on the open-market. TotalEnergies also plans to sell the carbon credits produced by the site as part of Alberta's regulated emission program. Total announced that it has reached financial closure on the acquisitions of German renewable developer VSB with an 18 GW pipeline of projects, and SN Power which holds interests in African hydropower project of 791 MW. The French company has said that its interest in African renewables projects was a result of a desire to provide clean electricity to the populations of countries where they are also building large oil-and-gas projects for export. This includes Uganda's East African Crude Oil Pipeline, which is worth $5 billion. Total's primary interest in VSB is access to future renewables in Germany. It has described Germany as a market of priority for future growth. The company announced on Wednesday that it will now sell a VSB developed wind and solar project, the 440 MW Puutionsaari in Finland. Reporting by America Hernandez and Alban Kach in Gdansk. Editing by Louise Heavens and Alexandra Hudson.
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Norway's FSA claims that a firm issued fake insurance to Russian oil tankers.
According to Norwegian authorities, the insurance documents issued by a small Norwegian firm to cover up the forgeries were bogus. The documents were used to circumvent international sanctions and hide the age of the oil tankers. Romarine AS, a Norwegian-registered company, claimed to be an insurer. Their website listed dozens of tanks believed to be a part of Russia’s shadow fleet. This included vessels that were under Western sanctions. The FSA stated that the company is not registered by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (FSA) as an insurer. Western nations have sanctioned hundreds of ships that they suspect Russia uses to circumvent price caps on crude oil exports and other cargos. These vessels are not covered or regulated by the conventional Western insurance companies, which poses the risk of unreliable tankers and environmental damages in the event that a shipwreck occurs. The fact that Romarine made an effort in order to prove the tankers' insurance coverage by Western insurers, should they sink or be polluted, is what makes this case stand out. Jo Gjedrem is an official with the FSA. She said, "It is an unusual case." The FSA warned Romarine about its failure to comply with the warning in January. It then issued an order to stop operations on 4 March. Romarine, in response to an email question from, said that it was aware of FSA's order of March 4, and had responded "with some delays through our lawyers". Romarine stated that they operated within the applicable regulations but had decided to cease taking on new business until "positive feedback" from the authorities. Romaine has not responded to the FSA, according to the FSA. According to the Norwegian commercial database, Proff, Andrey Mochalin is the sole owner of Romarine AS. He is a Russian national and a former employee at Norwegian insurer Hydor AS. Johan Gjernes is the former chairman of Romarine and chief business officer at Hydor AS. He told us via email that Romarine had been sold to Mochalin, who now owns it. Gjernes left Romarine in 2023 and Mochalin took over as chairman one year later. This is according to the official Norwegian company registry. According to Norid AS (Norway's government-run registry for domain names), Romarine's site is located in Russia. Two commercial IP-locating websites pointed to an address in St Petersburg. Mochalin has not returned any of the requests sent via email, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, or telephone. SHIPS SUBJECT TO SANCTIONS Romarine's site, as of early march, listed at least 30 oil tanksers that were subject to U.S. sanctions, EU sanctions or UK sanctions. These included the Captain Kostichev oil tanker and Ionia oil tanker, which appeared on certificates of insurance submitted to Russian port authorities. Since then, some names have been removed. The certificate of insurance issued by the Gabon flagged tanker Ionia on February 2, and dated January 9, listed Romarine, as its insurer. A second document, dated 24 March and presented by Captain Kostichev of Panama to the port authorities at De Kastri (Russia's Far East), listed Romarine as their insurer. The vessel, although the certificate stated that it was valid through April 24, has been removed from Romarine's site while the Ionia still remains. LSEG data indicates that the Captain Kostichev's operator is Stream Ship Management based in United Arab Emirates. Narus Maritime Corporation, based in Seychelles, owns and operates the Ionia. I was unable to contact either company for a comment. Romarine responded that they had accidentally listed vessels subject to Western Sanctions on their website due to a glitch in the technical system. The company replied in an email to a question received on 12 March. "We implemented our new automatic system a few weeks ago, and we are working to figure out what went wrong." Gjedrem stated that the FSA was concerned about Romarine when it received an email inquiry from overseas last September asking about a letterhead document certifying Romarine as a ship's insurance. Gjedrem: "We instantly saw that it was fake." The letterhead could have been copied and pasted onto the fake document. It quoted non-existent Norwegian laws. The person who signed the document never worked for Finanstilsynet, and the stamp on it was fake." On March 25, the FSA posted an alert on its website about using Romarine's services. Oslo Police has also opened an investigation into Romarine’s business activities following a complaint by the FSA. Police said they were investigating 4 people, two Norwegians, one Bulgarian and one Russian. They are suspected of falsifying documents and performing insurance mediated activities without a license. The police said that a search was conducted on the home of one of the suspected in late March. The Norwegian public broadcaster NRK reported the police investigation first. Romaine did not respond to a question about the police investigation. The Russian Ministry of Transport and the Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport have not responded to requests for comments about the Norwegian investigation of Romarine, or the Norwegian order to stop operations. Reporting by Gleb Stolyarov in Oslo, Nerijus Adomiaitis and reporters in Moscow. Additional reporting by Nidhi verma in New Delhi. Editing by Nina Chestney & Jason Neely.
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Maguire: US natural gas prices prepare for the impact of tariff crossfire on US prices
The U.S. Natural Gas prices have already risen by 80% in the last year, but they are about to get a new jolt due to the knock-on effect of the most recent round of tariffs levied by the U.S. Government on goods entering the nation. The U.S. Gas Market will be affected regardless of when and how the new tariffs come into effect. Exports of LNG in the form or gas are likely to become a bartering chip for any subsequent trade negotiations. Commitments to increase purchases of U.S. LNG can be a quick way to rebalance the trade ledger to the U.S. for nations that are looking to reduce their trade surplus or avoid future tariffs. As a possible form of reprisal, some countries that are impacted by the new tariffs and who already buy U.S. LNG regularly may also threaten to reduce their purchases. Gas exporters, utilities and households will all be affected by the changes in the gas trade volume and price. BIG STAKES According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. exported nearly 12 billion cubic foot of LNG every day in 2024. This cemented its position as the world's top LNG exporter for the second consecutive year. The LNG shipments generated more than $30 billion in revenue, which was significant for both the companies that shipped the gas as well as the U.S. Treasury. According to Kpler ship tracking data, the Netherlands was the largest market for U.S. LNG in 2024, accounting for 11% of all volumes. France, Japan and South Korea were the next biggest buyers of U.S. LNG. China, Turkey, Spain, and the United Kingdom also made a notable purchase. Tipping the Balance The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods that these countries sell to the U.S., as the U.S. is running up large trade deficits. All of these countries already buy a lot of U.S. LNG. It is likely they will increase their purchases in order to ease relations with the Trump Administration. As part of the tariff negotiations, other countries with large trade surpluses, such as Vietnam, may also consider increasing U.S. LNG exports. Plan B LNG will also be a part of any countermeasures that nations take to retaliate against the U.S. after they raised tariffs. China and a number of European nations, including Germany, have pledged to respond to planned tariff increases. They are likely to see LNG as a way to cause revenue damage to the U.S. while avoiding self-harm. Qatar, Australia, and Malaysia also provide LNG to global clients, so they will be able quickly replace any U.S. LNG volumes lost, while U.S. LNG suppliers may find it difficult to quickly find alternative buyers. GAS FLOW AFFECTS The domestic gas market will be affected by the new tariffs in the United States, regardless of how the LNG export volume trends. The increase in LNG imports will result in a higher demand for gas at LNG export terminals, and a tighter supply of gas for other gas consumers. This will put pressure on U.S. utility companies that rely on gas to produce approximately 40% of their electricity. In response to higher gas prices in the US, several utilities have already reduced their gas usage in favor of increasing coal-fired electricity generation. Gas prices could rise further due to the renewed strength of LNG exports. This would lead to a surge in U.S. electricity emissions, which could accelerate climate changes. If, on the other hand most trade partners choose to reduce U.S. purchases of LNG as part of tariff retaliation, then demand for LNG export terminals may drop, which could result in more gas being available domestically and lower gas costs. It is likely that there will be mixed reactions among trading partners, as some countries may reduce their LNG purchases, while others might increase them. These volume swings may eventually balance each other out, resulting in a total LNG volume that is largely unchanged by the end the year. In the short term, however, the sudden changes in LNG order flows could trigger wild swings on the gas market. Gas market participants will need to be able to take advantage of any price movements that are favorable and to avoid volatile market conditions. These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.
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Ukraine's grain exports to Romania through Constanta in January-February drop by 226,000 tons
The port authority reported on Wednesday that Ukraine had shipped 226,000 tons of grain to the Romanian Black Sea Port of Constanta during the first two months this year. This is a sharp drop from the 1.33 million tons it shipped in the same time period last year. The decline reflects Kyiv’s reliance on own ports, despite Russian attacks against infrastructure and shipping. However, Constanta remains Ukraine’s main alternative route for grain exports since Russia launched their full-scale invasion on February 20, 2022. The total grain exports via Constanta for the period January-February amounted at 2.55 million tonnes. Constanta is also the main grain importer from neighbouring countries such as Serbia, Hungary, and Moldova. The port data, which excludes volumes handled by smaller Romanian ports, and direct exports via rail and road, revealed that Ukrainian grain shipments to Constanta totaled 6.23 millions metric tons in the year 2024. Since February 2022, Romania has assisted in the export of almost 29 millions tons of Ukrainian grain via Constanta. Reporting by Luiza Illie, Editing by David Goodman
What might happen to the Russian energy market if sanctions were lifted?
One of the topics on the agenda is a possible relief in the sanctions against Russia, which includes its vast energy sector.
The oil and gas sector is a major source of revenue for Moscow. It has been under Western sanctions since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. These sanctions were tightened considerably after Russia invaded Ukraine 2022. Washington announced its most severe round of sanctions in January 2010.
Here are some implications of a possible reversal.
RUSSIA TRADE with US and EU
Before the war, Russia was the biggest supplier of fuel oil in the United States. It exported up to one million metric tonnes (240,000 barrels of fuel per day) per month.
The United States imported crude oil, mainly from Russia's Far East. If sanctions are lifted, these flows could resume.
Before the war, Europe was the largest buyer of Russian gas and oil. The European Union has imposed several rounds of sanctions, the most recent package being extended until September. This and efforts to reduce the bloc's dependence on Moscow have dramatically reduced these figures.
Eurostat reports that the volume of "petroleum" oil imported from Russia during the fourth quarter of 2024 is 10% less than it was in the first three months of 2021.
The EU is not expected to change its imports of Russian gas and oil until it reviews the current sanctions.
Even if sanctions were lifted, a return to the energy supply of pre-war is unlikely. Damage to infrastructure such as the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia and Germany, of which three were blown up by 2022, will also limit future flow.
PAYMENTS
The impact of the easing financial sanctions by the United States on Russian energy revenues and exports would be greater.
The U.S. sanctions and EU sanctions have forced Russian exporters to switch to alternative payment methods and increased fees. The easing of U.S. sanction could allow Russian companies to conduct transactions in dollars.
Russian and Chinese banks have found a way to shorten the payment period, but problems persist.
The cost of payments in currencies other that the U.S. Dollar is high, as Russian oil suppliers have to convert their currency several times.
The U.S. imposed sanctions on January 10, which included Gazprom Neft, and Surgutneftegaz. These two companies, the third- and fourth-largest Russian oil producers by production, had to depend more on intermediaries.
In November, United States also imposed sanction on Russia's Gazprombank which was used to pay Gazprom's European gas customers.
Washington has issued temporary waivers for Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey to facilitate payment through the bank.
Prices are listed below.
The U.S. and its allies, including the EU, capped Russian oil prices at $60 per barrel. Western shippers and insurers are prohibited from facilitating any trade above this level due to sanctions. Russian exporters could find that more maritime service providers are willing to work with Russian exporters if the U.S. ceases to enforce the cap.
The price of Russia's Urals crude, its flagship, collapsed early in 2022 after European refiners, which were the main buyers, stopped importing.
Urals is now valued at around $10 a barrel less than the Brent crude benchmark, compared to pre-war levels that were around $1 to $2 per barrel.
Urals may increase if U.S. Sanctions are eased, but they are unlikely to return back to their historical levels until European sanctions are lifted.
Russia will continue selling most of its crude oil to India and China until then. These countries became the largest buyers when European refiners stopped purchasing.
Shipping
Since 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions against hundreds of vessels that are involved in Russian oil and gas shipments. It also imposed sanctions upon dozens of shipping companies and several Russian insurance firms.
Many vessels suspended operations due to the sanctions. Some traders have called the docking of sanctioned ships off Russian ports "tanker graveyards".
Should such sanctions be lifted, Moscow will pay less to ship its crude oil and thus increase its revenue from crude sales.
No sanctions are in place on the import of Russian pipeline natural gas. However, most countries have stopped buying it since Russia invaded Ukraine. This makes Gazprom, the Russian gas export monopoly, the biggest corporate victim of the conflict.
U.S. sanctions included companies that supported the Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia. The development of Russian LNG plant could be accelerated if the sanctions are lifted. Nina Chestney and Simon Webb edited the report.
(source: Reuters)