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The Houthi's advance in Yemen has put the U.S. into a new situation

The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have launched a lightning-fast offensive that has placed them in a position to control an important Middle East waterway. This is a new and major problem for U.S. president Donald Trump while his war against Iran continues in its seventh month.

Houthi fighters are advancing south along Yemen's coastline, increasing their 'ability' to choke off Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the "Gate of Tears", at the mouth of 'Red Sea, giving Tehran the potential to gain leverage over both of region's major oil-shipping routes.

On Friday, militants reached Perim island in the middle strait connecting Yemen with Africa. This is bad news to Saudi Arabia. The country has been shipping most of its oil through Red Sea ports, since the war closed the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of Arabian Peninsula.

This comes at a particularly difficult time for Trump who is already struggling with record low approval ratings, and looking for a solution to the conflict. Most recently, he announced an economic pressure campaign aimed at forcing concessions from Iran’s government.

The conflict has led to high gasoline prices in the United States, which have weakened the Republican Party's chances at keeping control of Congress during the midterm elections of November. Iran is 'defiant' despite its economic and military losses.

Stephen Wertheim is a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He said that Trump had adopted a strategy to squeeze Iran's economic system while maintaining military conflict levels at a level too low for it to affect American economies. The Houthis have destroyed?Trump’s plan.

Joining the fight is dangerous

The U.S. government can't afford for the Houthis to close the Strait, which would drive up energy prices and disrupt global trade.

It would be a dangerous mission to send the U.S. military, already overstretched by the war in Iran, into a battle with a foe who has resisted previous attacks from Saudi Arabia and the U.S.

Three sources say that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the de facto ruler in Saudi Arabia, called Trump on Thursday to ask for U.S. military assistance against the Houthis. The sources say that he was told Washington wouldn't intervene directly at this time but would provide intelligence.

Trump confirmed Saturday that he spoke to the crown prince and claimed the Houthis also called his administration to ask Washington to refrain from getting directly involved in this conflict.

Senior Trump?administration officials declined to answer specific questions but stated that the U.S.?is focusing on national security concerns such as ensuring the freedom of navigation in Red Sea, "while empowering regional partners to manage and resolve regional security challenges".

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Houthis all declined to comment on a request. Iran's Foreign Ministry said in a Thursday statement that the Yemen conflict cannot be resolved by a blockade or a military action against Houthis. It called for dialogue without addressing Irans role.

A SECOND KEY STRAIN

Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. attacks and Israeli attacks that took place earlier this year. This was the outlet into the Gulf, through which a fifth of the world's oil supply flowed prior to the war.

The Houthis closing Bab el-Mandeb would be another economic blow. It would constrain 7% more of the global petroleum supply and 12% more of the global trade.

David Schenker is a Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near East affairs during Trump's initial term.

The Iranians have a huge amount of leverage in their hands.

Analysts and ex-officials say that Trump now faces a difficult choice. He can either devote U.S. troops and limited air defense munitions towards pushing back the Houthis or leave Saudi Arabia, its allies and the Yemeni government in the south to face them alone.

Houthis have seized Yemen's Capital for 12 years, and a Saudi-led intervention has not been able to remove them.

By taking on the Houthis, Trump would be putting an end to a deal he made last year whereby the U.S. agreed to stop bombing them in exchange for a suspension of strikes against Red Sea shipping. This would expose U.S. troops to possible missile attacks from Yemen.

A STRETCHED U.S. MILITARY

The U.S. military would have to shoulder an additional burden.

U.S. officials claim that a battle with the Houthis would require significant naval, aerial and intelligence resources. This is because the U.S. needs to identify Houthi positions which have changed from last year.

It could be a bad thing for the stockpiles of U.S. air defense interceptors and munitions if U.S. Navy aircraft and vessels have to begin shooting down Houthi missiles and drones.

Senior administration officials denied that the U.S. is concerned about its resources. The official stated that the United States Military had more than enough ammunition, munitions and stockpiles in order to meet the strategic goals of the Commander-in Chief.

Tim Lenderking is a principal of Squire Patton Boggs and former U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen under Joe Biden. He said that since Trump has indicated he does not want to directly engage in a military campaign against the Houthis the U.S. should do more to provide intelligence to the Saudis to support their air campaign, and to increase diplomatic and material assistance to Yemen's internationally recognised government.

Lenderking stated during a Washington webcast sponsored the Middle East Institute think tank that "this administration asked the question, What can Yemen do for me?" "Well, Yemen could ruin our day."

(source: Reuters)