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Executives say that Trump's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on ocean shipping increases the risk of chaos.

The ocean shipping industry is on edge after President Donald Trump announced his new tariff plan. He has stoked a trade conflict that will stifle transport demand and force companies to scramble to manage the fallout.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration will announce "reciprocal duties" against nations that impose duties on U.S. products. The move comes after the Trump administration imposed new import duties on products from Mexico and Canada, as well as steel and automobiles.

Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk are among the major global container shipping companies that transport the towering piles filled with colorful boxes of goods to U.S. clients like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.

They are titans of the ocean shipping industry, which handles 80% or so of all global trade. The industry is worth about $14 trillion per year. Trump's on-and off tariffs are also whipsawing companies. Blake Harden is the vice president for international trade at Retail Industry Leaders Association. "The implementation has caused confusion," he said. The companies haven't had the time, certainty and guidance that they needed to comply with these changes.

During his second term, Trump invoked emergency powers in order to quickly add tariffs, which he sometimes retracted and then reinstated.

Kit Johnson, Director of Import Compliance at John S. James Co. - a U.S. Customs Broker and Freight Forwarder with customers such as automakers, producers of chemicals, machines, medical devices, and textiles - said that importers do not know their duty costs from week to week.

Johnson has seen a rise in the number of customers who choose to ship their autos by air, rather than shipping them by sea. This is a way for customers to avoid new tariffs.

Container imports to the U.S. have also risen to record levels over the past few months, as companies rush in toys, bedding, furniture, machinery, and parts from China. The U.S. imports of containers from China, the world's No. 1 exporter have also surged to record levels in recent months as companies rushed in toys, furniture and bedding from China.

Other vessel types and planes were called in to assist U.S. companies stockpile cars and other goods from Europe, the Far East and Ireland.

According to data provided by freight pricing platform Xeneta, the average spot rate for a 40-foot shipping container on the important Far East-U.S. West Coast was $2,844 Tuesday. This represents a gain of nearly 16% in just one day. This rate is lower than it was one year ago when Houthi attacks were a relatively new threat and traders did not try to avoid tariffs.

TARIFFS TAKE BITE

Front-loading is a quick fix, but it's only temporary. Tariffs in retaliation could spark trade wars and suffocate the demand.

Tariff tiffs are occurring as ocean shipping is put at greater risk by a separate Trump proposal to impose large U.S. Port Call Fees on ships that have links to China.

Those who oppose this proposal claim that it will decimate the domestic energy and agriculture exporters Trump promised to help. The critics also say that it could rekindle pandemic chaos in ports, as vessel operators would be tempted to avoid paying fees by flooding some ports while starving other ports.

The addition of this tax to tariffs has paralyzed the decision making process for how to sell, source and move goods.

Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, said: "You can't make important decisions about your supply chain if the rules keep changing."

A Greek container shipping executive who asked to remain anonymous for fear of public comments negatively affecting business said that customers did not load cargo out of fear that they might be charged a high levy at the end a long ocean voyage.

We are waiting and watching.

Experts have started counting the damage caused by Trump's tariffs.

According to the Institute for Supply Management's survey, the fear of levies has already slowed down the turnaround of the U.S. Manufacturing sector. This sector relies heavily on imports and exported goods and is a major driver for transportation.

S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts that the volume of U.S. Ocean Container Freight Imports will drop by 0.7% in 2025.

S&P stated that "While there was still strong growth in first quarter 2025, this is expected reverse in the second as tariffs bite."

U.S. Customs and Border Protection, meanwhile, is scrambling around to reprogram and test the systems required to calculate and collect tariffs. In February, the Trump administration delayed its plan to collect duties from retailers such as Temu and Shein for direct sales of low value goods. This was after packages began piling up at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport.

Johnson, a customs broker, said that the more tariffs there are, the harder it will be to keep up. Reporting by Lisa Baertlein, Victoria Waldersee, Rene Maltezou, and David Lawder, in Washington. Editing by Jamie Freed.

(source: Reuters)