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Maguire: Early heatwave in Asia signals potential summer pressure on coal and gas

The temperatures in many Asian cities are above normal, prompting the use of air conditioners that consume a lot of energy. This is weeks ahead of the usual peak of summer temperatures across the region.

Data compiled by LSEG show that temperatures in China, Japan and India,?South Korea, and Southeast Asia are well above long-term averages and will remain so for several weeks.

This prolonged period of hot weather is likely to cause a surge in the use of air conditioners, which will put a 'extra strain' on power generators who are responsible for supplying electricity.

In order to ensure that power is available around the clock, utilities in Asia will have to increase their use of coal- and gas-fired plants. This will cause a drawdown of coal and natural gas stocks, which will then need to be replenished when summer arrives.

The increased competition between Asian utilities for fuels that generate electricity could spark a new strength on the global coal and natural gas markets. These markets have been already roiled due to the U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran, and the resulting disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

HEATING UP

Even though the northern hemisphere's official summer begins on June 1, millions of households in Asia already experience temperatures that are well above normal.

LSEG data show that since the middle of May the average temperature readings for Seoul, South Korea have been around 13% higher than the long-term mean. This has prompted "extreme heat alerts" by the Korea Meteorological Administration.

These warnings are activated when the maximum daily perceived temperature exceeds 38 degrees Celsius (100,4 degrees Fahrenheit).

Since mid-May, the temperatures in Shanghai have been around 12% higher than normal. In Tokyo, readings are around 10% higher on average.

In India, extreme heat has also been recorded in several towns. These readings have prompted people to seek refuge in air-conditioned buildings and homes.

Under Pressure

Power firms are already under pressure as they struggle to meet the increased demand for electricity.

The air-conditioning system is notoriously energy-intensive. However, it has become more popular in South and Southeast Asia due to rising temperatures and high levels of humidity.

According to the International Energy Agency, global air conditioning systems are expected to increase from 36% by 2022 to 60% in 2050. This is due to rapid?building-out' of living spaces across the hottest areas of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

The surge in space cooling demand is likely to place an even greater strain on global power grids than the data centre boom. This is because the data centers are concentrated in regions that have more developed power systems and can accommodate more demand.

Power firms in Asia are struggling to meet demand for homes and businesses due to the current heatwave. Authorities in Vietnam, India, and the Philippines have all issued recent warnings about power output.

If the hot, humid weather continues into peak summer period, we can expect to hear more warnings about power outages and requests for a reduction in power usage.

COAL-HEAVY POWER FOUNDATIONS

Over half of Asia's power is still generated by fossil fuel plants, despite the rapid growth in solar and wind farm generation in recent years.

In 2025, coal-fired power plants will generate around 52% Asia's electricity supplied by utilities and will "remain the backbone" of the region's energy system for the near future.

Around 10% of Asia's power is generated by natural gas plants. This share was expected to grow in the future, particularly in wealthy economies where coal plants will be shut down.

The volatility of natural gas prices and the supply of liquefied gas (LNG), in recent years, has caused a slowdown in the development of gas-fired power plants. This means that coal will continue to?bear the brunt' of Asia's energy needs, at least in the short term.

This means that a rise in coal imports from Asian utilities is to be expected as we approach the summer peak months. This should increase coal prices and further pressure global and regional energy costs.

In Asia, there will also be an increase in demand for LNG and natural gas, particularly where there are few alternatives to power and where the power consumption is expected to continue to rise due to temperatures above average.

This means that the hot spells expected in Asia this summer could further tighten the global coal and gas market, and intensify the energy shocks caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)