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Maguire: UK gas traders must be aware of the weather this winter.

Wind speeds in the UK this autumn and winter could have a major impact on the UK gas market, and even the gas and power markets of Europe.

If the wind farm output continues to be below normal, it could lead to a sharp increase in gas consumption by UK power companies heading into winter. Gas supplies will likely become tighter and gas prices higher.

The UK could export more gas and electricity during Europe's peak gas period in winter if wind power production increases.

SUB-PAR 2025 WIND... SUB-PAR 2025 FOR WIND...

Ember data shows that the monthly UK wind electricity production fell below the output total of the previous year during six of first eight months 2025.

The total wind power output in the first six months of this year is just under 48 terawatt-hours (TWh). This is 8.3%, or 4.3 TWh, less than what was produced during the same period in 2024.

Wind farms accounted for the lowest percentage of electricity generated in the UK since 2022.

In the UK, wind farms produced 31.9% (or about 35% of utility-scale) electricity from January to August. This compares to almost 35% in the same period in 2024.

GAS OFFSET

Gas-fired electricity generation in the UK increased by 17.5% compared to the same period last year and reached its highest level in two years.

The UK's final coal-fired plant was shut down in September last year. This helped to boost gas-fired production this year. It also resulted in the highest total power generation ever recorded from UK diesel-fired stations.

Gas-fired electricity accounted for a 33% share of UK utility electric generation. This is an increase from 29% during the same period 2024.

Gas will continue to be the main source of power dispatchable in the UK, particularly during times when wind farm output is intermittent and falls short of expectations.

LSEG data shows that gas will be the main source of heating for the UK power sector during the upcoming cold spells. Temperatures are expected to continue trending lower, but remain above the long-term norm in the next month.

Seasonal Upwings

As we move into the last months of the calendar year, both wind and gas tend to increase.

The wind speed at the turbines increases with the change in season, which has historically led to a dramatic increase in the production of wind electricity.

Ember data show that between 2019 and 2024 the UK's wind electricity production during the last three months of the calendar year increased by an average of 66% compared to its average during the quarter from July to September.

The share of wind power in the UK's generation mix has also traditionally increased as the year progressed, from an annual average of 30% to close to 40% by the winter peak months. UK fossil fuel power plant generation also increases from mid-year to winter.

The total amount of fossil fuel electricity generated between 2019 and 2024 is expected to be 18% higher than during the summer months, as the demand for heating increases in winter.

In the past, gas and coal-fired plants have been cranked to produce more power, but now that the UK coal plants are closed, gas plants will be doing the bulk of the heavy lifting in the winter.

TIGHT STOCKS

The volume of gas available during sudden cold snaps that trigger an increase in demand will be a major constraint to the UK's gas generation capacity during the winter.

The UK relies on its pipeline system to supply its gas, both from its own fields and exporter nations. It does not keep a lot of inventory in its domestic storage tanks.

The UK power system will likely consume more gas during peak demand times, due to the absence of backup coal plants after 2024.

This will put pressure on the existing gas supply network during unexpected spikes in demand, and cause a regular reduction of existing stocks.

The stock drawdown has already been apparent this year. Average inventories between January 1 and September 15 were 41% lower than the same period in 2020, the lowest since the 2021.

Gas traders traditionally stock up in September and October before the winter rush. This year, you still have plenty of time to do so.

During cold, windy days, power companies can rely on the increased power supply from wind farms to help meet any additional demand.

Some power providers may worry that UK wind output will remain below the year-earlier level for the remainder of 2025 and that more gas generation may be required to balance the system.

Gas traders could see a consistent increase in gas demand throughout the year. They may also experience periods of higher gas demand when power demand spikes due to cold snaps.

Gas traders need to be more aware of the impact that wind farms will have on gas consumption.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)