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Why a Canadian freight rail stop would roil North American supply chains

Canada's two main freight rail business are set to lock out around 10,000 of their Canadian unionized workers on Thursday at 12:01 a.m. ET (0401. GMT), starting an unprecedented synchronised work interruption that. would grind practically all railway freight movement in the nation. to a halt.

HOW INTEGRATED ARE THE RAIL NETWORKS THROUGHOUT NORTH AMERICA?

Canadian National Train Co and Canadian Pacific. Kansas City have said their rail networks south of the. border will continue to run, however market groups fear that a. work stoppage would have far-reaching impacts on the motion of. goods and commodities across The United States and Canada.

CN and CPKC's coast-to-coast rail networks in Canada connect. south of the border and act as crucial supply chain links to. trade corridors and ports throughout North America.

The networks intersect with those of U.S. rail operators. such as BNSF Railway, Union Pacific, Norfolk. Southern and CSX, helping with the motion of. billions of dollars' worth of products and products through. ports and storage facilities throughout the continent.

CN's network stretches south to New Orleans. CPKC's network. links to the U.S. ports of Corpus Christi, New Orleans and. Gulfport, and it extends more south to the ports of Tampico. and Lázaro Cárdenas on the east and west coasts of Mexico.

HOW WOULD A CANADIAN RAIL STOPPAGE AFFECT THE UNITED STATES?

Around a third of the traffic moved by the two Canadian rail. business crosses the border with the United States.

Lots of U.S. business and manufacturers, particularly those in the. Midwest, use Canadian ports for imports and exports, as Montreal. can be faster for deliveries to and from Europe, while Vancouver. can be much faster for ocean service to and from Asia.

Union Pacific, the No. 2 U.S. railroad operator, has cautioned. that a simultaneous interruption would have destructive effects. for the U.S. and Canadian economies.

Ratings agency Moody's said the blockage could cost over. C$ 341 million ($ 251.14 million) daily.

Dozens of groups representing miners, farmers, exporters,. and fertilizer manufacturers, to name a few, have warned that their. sectors face crippling supply-chain hold-ups, increased costs,. cash-flow constraints and potential shutdowns in a drawn-out. stoppage.

HOW WOULD THE U.S. AND CANADIAN FARM SECTORS BE IMPACTED?

An interruption would strike the motion of everything from wheat. to ethanol, potash fertilizer and meat.

In specific, it would crimp deliveries of U.S. spring wheat. from Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota to the Pacific. Northwest for export. An interruption would also hit Canadian potash. and grain exports.

The U.S. exported $28.3 billion of farming products to. Canada in 2023, making it the third-largest location for U.S. agricultural exports behind China and Mexico. The U.S. imported. $ 40.1 billion of Canadian agricultural items last year,. making Canada the second-largest source of U.S. farming. imports.

Ethanol, potash, corn, cereals, food grains, cooking oils,. and meat are amongst the agricultural items traded in between the. two nations.

WILL TRADE WITH MEXICO BE AFFLICTED TOO?

Mexico is Canada's third-largest single-country product. trading partner behind the U.S. and China, while Canada was. Mexico's fourth-largest product trading partner in 2023.

Mexico exports trucks, automobiles and lorry parts to Canada,. along with mangoes and avocados. Canada exports wheat, meat,. aluminum, vehicles and parts to Mexico.

Two-way trade in between the 2 nations, much of which moves. by means of the rails, was nearly C$ 55 billion in 2023.

CAN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY ENTER THE BREACH?

Truckers state they are facing a rise in demand which roadway. freight rates are increasing for shippers in Canada. Nevertheless,. market insiders say that while the trucking sector can manage. a few of the need, it can not replace rail circulation. In some. cases, the industry does not have the equipment, nor the. capacity, to handle bulk commodity cargoes such as potash, food. grains, or coal.

(source: Reuters)