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Shanghai copper prices surge on the back of dwindling stock

Reports citing four traders indicate that copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will continue to fall this week. This would be a continuation of the steep drop, and could trigger a price spike.

Traders said that the surge in prices for ShFE copper, an important metal used by China's massive manufacturing sector, would attract more metal into the exchange warehouses. This will make a complete depletion of the stock unlikely.

Yangshan copper premium is already tightening up. It is a measure of China's appetite to import copper. On Monday, it was at $93 per ton, its highest level since December 2023. It has also increased by more than 40% from January 2.

Copper inventories in the ShFE Last week, metal prices fell 32%, to 116.753 tons, the steepest decline in percentage ever recorded. This was due to local buyers taking delivery of metal they had purchased earlier in the month during a slump.

A trader said that ShFE copper stock could drop another 10,000 tons if warehouse stocks are released two days earlier on Wednesday than normal due to public holidays in China between May 1 and May 5.

Copper was diverted to the U.S. by traders in response to a tariff threat on U.S. imported copper. This led to a decline in ShFE stock and a rise in COMEX prices.

COMEX stock grew to 137 759 tons of metric tons. On Tuesday, the stock market was up 45% from January 2, and their highest level since December 2018.

COMEX inventories increased as a result of the tariff threat against U.S. imports, and the anticipation of higher COMEX prices.

Due to U.S.-China tensions over trade, consumers are finding it difficult to get supplies on a crowded Chinese market. This is because the United States has been cut off as a major scrap metal source, causing inventories to drop.

Copper prices are usually higher on the ShFE than the COMEX because of differences in demand and supply in China and in the U.S., as well as other factors such freight and taxes.

Since mid-March the COMEX copper price has been higher because of the buying frenzy due to import tariffs.

The traders expect that the price-relationship will return to normality as the Chinese inventory replenishment takes priority.

A trader stated that the prospect of higher ShFE prices could also attract metal stored in Shanghai’s bonded storage warehouses .

On April 24, stocks were 75,500 tonnes. This was a 5% drop from the previous week but still nearly five times higher than January 16's record low of 15,200 tones. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy; Violet Li, Lewis Jackson)

(source: Reuters)