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Andy Home: LME storage capacity drops as politics disrupt metal flows

London Metal Exchange (LME)'s global warehousing capability shrank by 4.25 percent in the first half 2025, despite opening new delivery locations at Hong Kong and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.

The total registered storage space is at its lowest since the Exchange began publishing quarterly updates in 2016: 3.2 million sq. m.

The shrinkage can be attributed to a sliding exchange inventory. The total stocks, including the off-warranty stocks, dropped by 541,000 tons in the first half 2025. They closed June at 1.62 million tonnes, a 20-month-low.

Geopolitical turmoil has distorted the signal of low stocks, which should be a positive sign for base metals prices.

DIFFERENT METAL

The LME has been a major player in the warehousing industry for many decades. The 65 million tons of global production is much larger than the other LME Metals. Smelters are also slow to react to changes in demand due to the high costs associated with idle capacity.

In the past, surplus metal was sold on the last-resort market. As recently as 2021, there were more than three million tons in LME storage. The combined on- and non-warrant stock totals just 717,000 tonnes.

Is this an indication of a market with a supply deficit? The market is left without one of its largest physical liquidity providers because of the April 2024 ban of new deliveries of Russian Metal.

In response to U.S. sanctions, UK and European ones are increasing the flow of Russian metal to China. China's aluminium imports from Russia increased by 80% on an annual basis to 1.1 millions tons between January and June.

The increase in U.S. tariffs on imports this year has further disrupted the global flow of light metals, leaving very little space for LME warehouses despite lucrative deals.

The fact that ISTIM UK Ltd., the LME Warehouse operator in Port Klang at the heart of many big aluminium stocks plays, has reduced its presence from 22 to just 13 units in the city over the past year is telling.

Port Klang's total storage capacity has declined 15% in the first half of the year despite other operators filling the gap.

COPPER CLEAR OUT

The LME stock raids in the second quarter were a big deal for copper bulls. However, the nearly depleted exchange inventory has nothing to do about demand but everything to do the U.S. president Donald Trump.

Trump's announcement in February that he would launch an investigation on copper imports for national security reasons opened the door to an unprecedented arbitrage. The U.S. duty paid price traded on CME was different from the international price in London.

LME warehouses have been stripped of inventory as it is shipped to the United States. U.S. copper imports surged from March to June to 724,000 tonnes, which is 80% of last year's demand.

CME copper stock is at its highest level in 21 years, with 247,210 tonnes, while LME inventories of 155,000 tons are still 43% lower than the beginning of 2025, despite some replenishment by Chinese smelters.

The threat of tariffs was unfounded, but it caused a massive redistribution in inventory without much impact on the global stock exchange picture.

SINGAPORE CHURN

The LME zinc stock has also been cleared over the past couple of months. The registered tonnage is down 72% from the beginning of the year, and now stands at 65 525 tons. This is the lowest since May 2023.

The time spreads are still surprisingly relaxed. The benchmark cash to three-month period is still trading at a small contango.

Singapore's recent history of shifting zinc stocks is reflected in the market's apparent lack concern. It is the city that has been the main hub for LME deliveries for both zinc and for lead, and it currently represents 99% and 97% respectively of all inventories.

No surprise then that LME warehouse operators opened more units in Singapore over the past 12 months than anywhere else. The number of warehouses listed in Singapore has risen from eight to 38. This is more than the eight listings in Hong Kong or the four listings in Jeddah, after the ports were opened for LME trade in January and respectively in July. According to the recent cancellations of last week, the lead is still present, but the zinc is missing. As of now, the increasing number of LME storage facilities in Singapore indicates that warehouse operators believe there is still plenty of zinc available for possible LME deliveries.

WAITING FOR METAL

The combination of tariffs and sanctions has led to a reduction in metal flows at the LME, with a trickle-down effect on the physical storage function.

Good news for LME storage companies: disruptions can create new opportunities. Hong Kong warehouses began receiving copper almost immediately after they opened, thanks to Chinese smelters who delivered metal into a tight market following the CME Arbitrage Trade.

It is less than good news that Russia, as a major producer of aluminium, zinc, and copper, is increasingly looking to the Chinese market.

Even if sanctions were lifted, it is unlikely that the growing trade between these two countries would be reversed.

LME storage capacity is down by more than a quarter compared to the beginning of the decade when four million tons were stored.

Stocks and storage are unlikely to return to their former levels anytime soon, as politics could further fragment what was once an extremely globalised metals market.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)