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Which bullish 2026 equity investments don't need AI euphoria to be successful? : Helen Jewell

Equity investors looking for a smooth ride through 2026 may want to consider increasing their exposure beyond the artificial intelligence euphoria. Opportunities could be hidden in plain sight.

Investors should be cautious. The valuations of U.S. equity are stretched. The Shiller price-earnings for the S&P 500 is above 40, which is very close to the levels during the dot-com boom in the 1990s.

Markets have become 'highly concentrated. Goldman Sachs analysis shows that the five largest U.S. tech companies, Nvidia Apple Alphabet Microsoft and Amazon, have a combined value greater than?the Euro STOXX?50. This includes Britain, India Japan and Canada stock markets. The CBOE Volatility index has been spiking in recent months, which raises doubts about the AI-fueled rally this year.

Many regions and sectors outside the U.S. technology sector generated steady returns last year - and many will be able to do so again next.

Beyond the U.S.

The U.S. was not the only region that had equity in 2025.

At the beginning of December, the world's largest market was ranked 20th for the year-to date performance by country. This is based on the local currency returns. South Korea and Spain led the pack.

It was not necessary to be in the U.S. for double-digit returns. Goldman Sachs reports that 84% of stock markets in all countries have seen a rise greater than 10% over the last 12 months.

There are many reasons why international stocks could continue to perform better next year. European stocks could benefit from an increase in economic activity. The loan growth rate is rising and the composite purchasing managers' (PMI), which measures economic expansion, is above 50. The German fiscal stimulus program and European defence spending could turbocharge this cyclical growth in 2026.

This should help cyclical European businesses, like those that make trucks and mining equipment. This is especially true if the euro/dollar rate stabilizes in 2019. In Japan, the combination of healthy inflation with corporate transformation (many companies are seeking to streamline and focus on core businesses) could continue driving higher profits and shareholder returns by 2026. The government's lower chamber just passed a $117billion supplementary budget, to "fund massive fiscal stimuli" that should support the economy. Japan is the only major economy that we expect to see interest rates rise in 2026. However, this should boost banks and not be a drag on growth.

Earnings in emerging markets may be supported through a weaker US dollar, lower interest rates globally, and an influx of money and investments as global supply chain realignment occurs to accommodate trade tensions and geopolitical conflict. My home market, the UK, which outperformed the U.S. without any help from high-profile AI-winners, has the potential to provide steady, stable returns. This is especially true given that valuations are currently among the lowest of all developed markets. Investors must identify British companies with the potential to overcome the negative perceptions still surrounding the country.

Beyond Technology

The story is similar for all sectors. It's not just about U.S. technology.

In local currency terms, European banks outperformed "Magnificent 7" by 40 percentages points over the past five years. There is no mention of a bubble. The valuations remain below the long-term averages. Our analysis shows that European Banks as a whole will return 24% of their market capitalization to shareholders in the next three year via dividends and share buybacks.

In recent years, healthcare stocks have been less successful than the overall market. This traditionally defensive sector, where demand is independent of economic cycles, has consistently shown strong earnings growth even in times of market stress.

According to our analysis, healthcare stocks trade at a discount of 28% to global equity - a level only seen twice in the last 30 years. In both cases, the sector gained more than 20% in the next 12 months.

There are many ways to get exposure in the AI field without having to pay a fortune. AI power demand highlights the need for investment in grid infrastructure and clean energy, including utility companies that power data centres.

Both clean energy stocks as well as listed infrastructure companies trade at a discount compared to the market. AI does not have to be costly. AI could continue to grow in 2026, especially if efficiency gains begin to be more evident. High valuations could keep the markets on edge. Investors who want to reduce their risk exposure have many options.

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(source: Reuters)