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India's fuel consumption outlook is affected by price increases and slowing industrial activity

India is expected to have less growth this year in its gasoline and diesel consumption after a series?of price hikes last week that reflected?higher fuel costs caused by the Iran War,?"with 'early signs stress in the trucking industry already evident.

Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum have implemented four rounds of increases in prices since mid-May. Earlier they had held off due to the elections. The price of gasoline is now 7.8% more expensive, while diesel prices are 8.6% higher.

Analysts believe that there may be further price increases, which will likely dampen the demand even more. Retailers are still selling fuels below market rates. They are losing an average of 5.5 billion rupees (57 million dollars) per day.

India's slowing fuel sales growth, as the world's largest importer and consumer of fuel, will dampen global demand, now that China has reached its peak in transportation fuel consumption.

Dylan Sim, analyst at FGE NexantECA, said: "We expect India's gas demand growth to fall to between 3.5-3.7% by 2026 due to reduced discretionary driving."

This compares to an earlier estimate that 4% growth. The consultancy also reduced its forecast growth in diesel demand from 2.5% to 2%.

Moody's Indian Rating Arm ICRA has revised its forecast of gasoline demand growth to 3%-4% for the current financial year, down from 5%-6% in the period before war. Diesel demand is expected to remain flat or even shrink, compared to an earlier forecast of 2%-3% growth.

Prashant Vashisth said that diesel and gasoline prices could increase inflation, which could harm end-user demand.

He said that the Middle East conflict could also lead to increased logistics and shipping costs. This would have a negative impact on diesel demand.

LESS INDUSTRIAL EXPLOITATION AFFECTS TRUCKERS

Since the war, oil prices in the world have risen by 40% and are now trading at around $100 a barrel. Before the conflict, a fifth of all oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the trucking industry, there are signs of a?lower demand for diesel due to?slower industrial activity.

SP Singh, senior Fellow at the Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training, stated that freight prices had fallen between 13% and 15 % on three quarters of the key long-haul routes, despite an increase in fuel prices.

Singh noted that drivers have to wait longer before returning from trips.

"Truckers do not get return tonnages. He said there is a 3-5 day delay because the manufacturing process has slowed. This is impacting their revenue, as their "round trips per months have been reduced."

According to preliminary data, Indian gasoline retailers saw their sales rise 2.8% in May compared to a year ago. Gasoil sales also increased 0.9%. This compares to April's figures, which showed a 6.8% rise in gasoline sales and a 0.8% growth for gasoil.

(source: Reuters)