Latest News

Oil pipeline capacity to spare Canadian exports from looming rail disagreement

A looming labor disagreement at Canada's two main railroads is unlikely to significantly decrease oil exports to the United States due to excess capability on Trans Mountain and other pipelines, people near to the matter said.

North American carriers such as fertilizer supplier Nutrien and U.S. logistics firm C.H. Robinson are bracing for simultaneous stoppages at the Canadian operations of Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) that might cost the country's economy billions of dollars.

A strike or lockout could start on Thursday.

But oil exports may be mainly unscathed. U.S. rail imports of Canadian crude have fallen greatly in recent years, balancing around 55,000 barrels daily in May, U.S. Energy Info Administration data revealed, the lowest since the pandemic price crash in 2020. The U.S. imports about 4.2 million bpd from Canada, mostly by pipeline.

Any person getting crude by rail right now is determining what alternatives they have, whether it's an alternative grade that can be replaced on the pipeline, or if a purchaser is happy to take something else, stated Elliot Apland at MarbleRock Advisors, which helps work out rail supply-chain contracts.

Rates of Canada's Western Canadian Select crude normally fall during export logjams. Nevertheless, Trans Mountain's expansion in May and offered capacity on other pipelines should restrict deep marking down, industry specialists and analysts stated.

Crude-by-rail is not as essential to the Canadian market as it was prior to the Trans Mountain expansion, said Jeremy Irwin, a senior oil markets analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects.

Trans Mountain's expansion nearly tripled the circulation of crude from landlocked Alberta to the Pacific coast, to 890,000 bpd.

Maintenance at U.S. Midwest refineries, which buy and procedure Canadian crude, will also free pipeline space for additional barrels, Irwin included.

WCS for September shipment in Hardisty, Alberta, picked Friday at $12.25 a barrel below U.S. West Texas intermediate crude, according to brokerage CalRock, compared to an average $ 18.65 discount rate in 2023. The reasonably small discount rate indicates little market concern about moving Canadian crude.

We're closely monitoring the circumstance and putting strategies in location to mitigate any effects if a strike or lockout were to occur, a representative at manufacturer Cenovus Energy said.

ConocoPhillips Canada stated it ships fine-tuned item on CPKC and other rail carriers, however has flexibility to manage a. sustained strike. The company does not anticipate any effect to its. Surmont oil-sands production.

IMPROVED PRODUCTS

Canadian propane relies mainly on rail to reach domestic and. export markets. Any interruption might substantially minimize. deliveries for fuel and chemical manufacturing.

AltaGas' Ridley Island Gas Export Terminal in. British Columbia has stockpiled on propane, Energy Aspects'. Irwin kept in mind.

Some companies that utilize generators for electrical power on job. websites have been stockpiling diesel, Irwin stated, including that a. rail blockage longer than two weeks could strand some diesel at. Alberta refineries.

Those refineries include Imperial Oil's Strathcona,. Suncor Energy's Edmonton, Shell's Scotford. Complex, North West Redwater's Sturgeon refinery and Cenovus'. Lloydminster refinery.

Canada's gasoline markets tend to be localized and. production stays in the area. Lots of significant gasoline markets are. linked straight to refineries by pipelines, while trains. and trucks likewise disperse gas in other areas.

Everyone is trying to get the inventories to a point where. they might free rail logistics for 2 week and still be OK, stated. a senior industry executive who declined to be recognized.

(source: Reuters)