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Oil prices increase as the market considers Russia's supply risk and US rate decision
Oil prices rose Tuesday, as markets considered a possible disruption in supplies from Russia as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks against its ports and refineries. They also weighed the possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut. Brent crude futures rose 53 cents or 0.8% to $67.97 per barrel at 1221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $63.93, an increase of 63 cents or 1%. Brent crude settled at $67.44 on Monday, up 45 cents, and WTI closed 61 cents higher, at $63.30. Three industry sources reported on Tuesday that the Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft warned its producers they might have to reduce production following Ukraine's drone strikes on key export ports and refineries. Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia's infrastructure to undermine Moscow's military capabilities as the talks to end the conflict have stagnated. Analysts at JP Morgan said that an attack on a terminal such as Primorsk would have a greater impact on Russia's ability sell oil overseas, and thus affect export markets. They said that "More important, the attack indicates a growing willingness of international oil markets to be disrupted, which could add upward pressure on oil price." Goldman Sachs estimates the Ukrainian attacks has taken out approximately 300,000 barrels of Russian refining capability per day in August and this month. The bank stated that "while the uncertainty surrounding secondary tariffs and other sanctions remains high, it is only reasonable to assume a modestly lower Russian output as Asian buyers continue signaling their willingness to import Russian oil." U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the government will not impose any additional tariffs on Chinese products to encourage China's halting of purchases of Russian crude oil, unless European countries impose their own duties on China and India, which are the largest buyers of Russian crude. Investors are also watching the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, where the bank is expected to reduce interest rates. Analysts were cautious about the state of the U.S. overall economy, despite the fact that lower borrowing costs usually boost fuel demand. The markets also factored in the possibility of a decline in crude inventories in the U.S. during the last week. Official data is expected to be released on Wednesday, 1430 GMT. In a note to clients, Macquarie Group's energy strategist Walt Chancellor said that U.S. crude stocks likely dropped by 6.4 million barrels in the week ending September 12 after a build of 3.9 million a week before. According to a poll conducted on Monday, analysts predicted that U.S. crude and gasoline inventories would have decreased last week while distillate stocks were likely to rise. (Anjana Anil contributed additional reporting from Bengaluru, and Trixie Yap contributed editing in Singapore. Alex Richardson and Joe Bavier edited the article.
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Sources say that Russia is close to reducing oil production due to drone attacks
Three industry sources reported on Tuesday that the Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft warned its producers that they might have to reduce production following Ukraine's drone strikes on key export ports and refineries. Since August, Kyiv has intensified its attacks on Russian energy assets in an effort to hinder Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine and to reduce the Kremlin revenues. This is because attempts to end the conflict by means of peace talks have failed. Over the last decade, oil and gas revenues accounted for a third to half of the total budget revenue of the Russian federal government. This makes the sector the most important source for financing the government. Ukrainian officials and Russian sources claim that drones from Ukraine have damaged Russia's two most important Baltic Sea ports, Ust-Luga & Primorsk. This has reduced Russia's refinery capacity by nearly a fifth. The Russian authorities have not commented publicly on the extent of damage or the impact on production or exports. Two industry sources from Russian oil companies said that Transneft has recently restricted the ability of oil firms to store oil on its pipeline system. Transneft warned that it might have to accept less crude if its infrastructure suffers more damage, according to the two sources. Two sources familiar with oil pumping operations and a third who is also aware of the attacks said that they could eventually force Russia to cut its output. Russia accounts for 9% global oil production. Three sources requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject. Transneft has not responded to requests for comment. What are the fastest working sanctions for drone strikes? The West has been imposing successive waves of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. They have focused heavily on the oil and gas industry. Moscow has rerouted most of its oil exports into Asia, where India & China are the main buyers. The first time that the war started in 2022, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest oil port, Primorsk, forcing the temporary shutdown of operations. Primorsk can export up to 1 million barrels per day of oil, which is more than 10% the total Russian oil production. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that the strikes caused significant damage, and called the attacks on Russian oil pipelines "the sanctions which work the fastest". Could not verify the extent to which the strikes caused damage. Russia, unlike the leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia does not have a significant capacity to store oil. Primorsk resumed partial operations on Saturday. However, it is unclear how long the repairs will take. According to industry sources, Russian oil exports have already been affected by another drone attack on the Ust-Luga Oil Terminal in the Baltic Sea that occurred in August. Since April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia – a group that is known as OPEC+ – have increased production after years of cutting back to support the oil market. According to the latest OPEC+ deal, Russia's oil output quota will rise to 9,449 million barrels of oil per day in September from 9,344 million bpd last month. J.P. Morgan, a U.S.-based bank, said that limited storage capacity was threatening Russia's ability for it to increase oil production. Goldman Sachs said that refinery outages will have a negative impact on production because of the congestion in crude storage caused by lower refinery runs. Both banks stated that production would only decline modestly, as Asian buyers were still interested in Russian crude. (Reporting and Editing by Joe Bavier).
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Serbia charges 13 people for the roof collapse of a railway station that killed 16.
The Serbian prosecutor indicted on Tuesday 13 people including a former Minister for their roles in the collapse of a railway station's roof last year, which killed 16 people. This incident sparked months of anti-government demonstrations across Serbia. The prosecutor's offices in Novi Sad and Novi Sad announced that the former construction, infrastructure, and transport minister Goranvesic, along with 12 others including his aide, and the head of the railway company, had been indicted for public safety offenses. Indictment included "using the station building even though construction was in progress and no permit had been issued (to keep it in use)," the statement stated. The charges include "failure of maintenance of the structure of station building and criminal offenses during the design phase and execution of the renovation of Novi Sad Railway Station Building." A court must verify the indictment. The protests in Serbia, which followed the collapse of the roof, and the university closures, have shaken the government of President Aleksandar Vucic. A former ultranationalist, Vucic converted to the cause for EU membership in 2008. They demand that Vucic, and his party, be removed from power within 13 years. They accuse Vucic, and his allies, of having ties with organised crime and violence against rivals. Vucic denies these accusations. (Reporting and editing by Ivana Skularac)
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Maguire: UK gas traders must be aware of the weather this winter.
Wind speeds in the UK this autumn and winter could have a major impact on the UK gas market, and even the gas and power markets of Europe. If the wind farm output continues to be below normal, it could lead to a sharp increase in gas consumption by UK power companies heading into winter. Gas supplies will likely become tighter and gas prices higher. The UK could export more gas and electricity during Europe's peak gas period in winter if wind power production increases. SUB-PAR FOR WIND 2025... SUB-PAR 2025 FOR WIND... Ember data shows that the monthly UK wind electricity production fell below the output total of the previous year during six of first eight months 2025. The total wind power output in the first six months of this year is just under 48 terawatt-hours (TWh). This is 8.3%, or 4.3 TWh, less than what was produced during the same period in 2024. Wind farms accounted for the lowest percentage of electricity generated in the UK since 2022. In the UK, wind farms produced 31.9% (or about 35% of utility-scale) electricity from January to August. This compares to almost 35% in the same period in 2024. GAS OFFSET Gas-fired electricity generation in the UK increased by 17.5% compared to the same period last year and reached its highest level in two years. The UK's final coal-fired plant was shut down in September last year. This helped to boost gas-fired production this year. It also resulted in the highest total power generation ever recorded from UK diesel-fired stations. Gas-fired electricity accounted for 33% in the UK, up from 29% during the same period of 2024. Gas will continue to be the main source of power dispatchable in the UK, particularly during times when wind farm output is intermittent and falls short of expectations. LSEG data shows that gas will be the main source of heating for the UK power sector during the upcoming cold spells. Temperatures are expected to continue trending lower, but remain above the long-term norm in the next month. Seasonal Upwings As we move into the last months of the calendar year, both wind and gas tend to increase. The wind speed at the turbines increases with the change in season, which has historically led to a dramatic increase in the production of wind electricity. Ember data show that between 2019 and 2024 the UK's wind electricity production during the last three months of the calendar year increased by 65% on average compared to what was produced during the quarter from July to September. The share of wind power in the UK's generation mix has also traditionally increased as the year progresses. It went from an average of 30% per month at the beginning of the year, to close to 40% by the end of winter. UK fossil fuel power plant generation also increases from mid-year to winter. The total amount of fossil fuel electricity generated between 2019 and 2024 is expected to be 18% higher than during the summer months, due to the increased demand for heating during winter. In the past, gas and coal-fired plants have been cranked to produce more power, but now that the UK coal plants are closed, gas plants will be doing the bulk of the heavy lifting in the winter. TIGHT STOCKS The volume of gas available during sudden cold snaps that trigger an increase in demand will be a major constraint to the UK's gas generation capacity during the winter. The UK relies on its own pipeline network and exporter nations to supply its gas. It does not keep a lot of inventory in its domestic storage tanks. The UK power system will likely consume more gas during peak demand times, due to the absence of backup coal plants after 2024. This will put pressure on the existing gas supply network during unexpected spikes in demand, and cause a regular reduction of existing stocks. The stock drawdown has already been apparent this year. Average inventories between January 1 and September 15 were 41% lower than the same period in 2020, the lowest since the 2021. Gas traders traditionally stock up in September and October before the winter rush. This year, you still have plenty of time to do so. And power companies can rely on wind farms for a greater supply of power to meet any additional load requirement during cold, breezy days. Some power providers may worry that UK wind output will remain below the year-earlier level for the remainder of 2025 and that more gas generation may be required to balance system requirements. Gas traders could see a consistent increase in gas demand throughout the year. They may also experience periods of higher gas demand when power demand spikes due to cold snaps. Gas traders need to be more aware of the impact that wind farms will have on gas consumption. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. 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Kuwait Petroleum Corp tries to revive a pipeline lease-leaseback agreement
Kuwait's national oil company announced on Tuesday that it is looking to revive the project of leasing out its crude oil pipelines and then leasing them back. Kuwait joins Gulf counterparts like Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates who are leveraging private capital to acquire strategic energy assets. Media reports last week citing sources familiar with the situation said that the company was considering leasing a part of its network to fund an investment plan covering everything from upstream and petrochemicals. Kuwait Petroleum Corp, at a forum in Kuwait on Tuesday, did not disclose figures. This move is similar to the lease-and-leaseback deals made in recent years by Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, as well as Bahrain's Bapco Energies. These deals offer upfront cash for the payment of tariffs over time. Kuwait's official news agency reported earlier this month that BlackRock will open a Kuwait office and have appointed Ali AlQadhi as the head of operations. BlackRock's involvement in the potential KPC deal was not immediately apparent. BlackRock did no respond immediately to a comment request. Kuwait Petroleum Corp announced in late 2023 that it would spend $410 billion between 2023 and 2040 to implement a strategy aimed at increasing production to 4 million barrels of oil per day. Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KPC), a KPC-owned subsidiary that operates in the Neutral Zone, shared with Saudi Arabia has made significant progress in the Dorra Gas Field Project in partnership with Saudi Aramco. Initial engineering designs have been completed, KPC said at the forum. Kuwait also wants to implement a program to drill offshore oil explorations wells as part of an overall push to increase reserves and production capability. Reporting by Ahmed Hegagy. Writing by Tala RAMAdan and Sarah El Safty. Editing by Kirby Donovan and Ros Russel.
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Sources say that Mercuria intends to remove large quantities of aluminum from LME storage.
Three sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that Mercuria plans to remove almost 100,000 metric tonnes of aluminum from the London Metal Exchange's warehouses. This could result in a reduction in the dominant position held by the commodity trader. Since May, Mercuria, a Swiss company, has held over 90% of all aluminium warrants (title documents conferring ownership) 0#LMEWHL>. LME data shows that as of September 4, LME's holdings of aluminium on or available warrant totaled more than 426,000 tonnes . Aluminium is not illegal in the United States. Mercuria announced on September 5 and 8 that it would cancel nearly 100,000 tonnes of aluminium for delivery to LME registered warehouses at Port Klang in Malaysia. The sources claimed. Mercuria declined comment. The backwardation or premium for the cash aluminum contract is around $5 per ton. Sources in the industry say that cancellations of warrants in a backwardated market are rare, as the premiums would normally encourage deliveries to the LME. The LME (owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing) has not made public statements regarding Mercuria's aluminium cancellations or holdings. The LME did not respond directly to questions regarding Mercuria's aluminium holdings. The LME stated that it has several arrangements in place for preventing any influence from large or dominant positions. The report added that "the LME Special Committee has at times directed market participants to take certain actions in order to reduce large positions on the exchange relative to current stock levels." Globally, the aluminium market appears to be roughly in balance. According to the consensus of analysts in their latest quarterly survey, there will be a small surplus this year of 200,000 tonnes and 281,500 tonnes next year. The global primary aluminium supply is estimated to be around 74 millions tons this year.
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Investors in the Gulf are awaiting US Fed decision
Gulf equities had a mixed start to trading on Tuesday, as higher oil prices provided some support. However, investors remained cautious ahead of the highly anticipated monetary policies verdict from the U.S. Federal Reserve scheduled for Wednesday. Investors are closely monitoring the updated "dotplot" of policymakers and Jerome Powell's guidance. The Fed's position has a lot of weight in the Gulf region, where the majority of currencies are pegged with the U.S. Dollar, thereby anchoring the regional monetary policies. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index rose 0.1% after bouncing from a two-year low in the previous session. Consumer discretionary shares and utilities stocks led to this improvement. Crude, a major driver for Gulf economies, rose to $67.52 per barrel at 0632 GMT. This was largely due to disruption risks from Ukrainian attacks against Russian energy facilities. Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair & Co soared 10%, extending the gains from the previous day, after the company named a new chairperson. Dubai's main stock index was flat during choppy trading as a slump of more than 3% in the telecom monopoly Emirates Integrated Telecommunications (also known as "du") tempered gains made by real estate and industrial shares. Mamoura Diversified Global Holding sold its 7.55% stake to du for 3,15 billion dirhams (858 million dollars) in a secondary stock sale. Emaar Properties, the real estate giant, increased by 0.7%. Salik, the toll operator, added 0.6%. Deyaar Development's stock fell 1% after the appointment of its new chief financial officer. ADNOC Drilling, which has risen by nearly 1%, is the main driver of Abu Dhabi's benchmark index, rising 0.3%. Space42, the U.S.-based Viasat and a joint venture to enable global Direct-to Device (D2D), have announced their plans to create Equatys. Qatar's stock market index rose 0.4% with all sectors showing positive returns. This was boosted by the 0.5% rise in Qatar National Bank (the region's biggest lender). The "QCD Money Market Fund" is the first tokenized money-market fund in the Dubai International Financial Centre. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman in Bengaluru, with Amna Mariyam from Bengaluru)
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Nigerian FOB levies on imports are suspended after industry protest
Nigeria's Finance Ministry has ordered an immediate suspension of the levy on imported goods. Companies had claimed that the levy would increase the cost of doing businesses and hamper economic recovery. In a late-Monday directive, Finance Minister Wale Edun stated that the Nigeria Customs Service's (NCS) 4 percent Free on Board (FOB), introduced last month, would be suspended in order to address concerns raised by business. Edun stated in a press release that "Following consultations with stakeholders from the industry, trade experts and relevant government officials it became clear that the implementation 4% FOB charges poses significant challenges for Nigerian trade facilitation and the business environment as well as economic stability." Importers, business groups and others had warned against the tax, claiming that it would raise the price of goods, cause inflation and harm Nigeria's competitiveness in the trade market at a time the country is trying to reduce currency volatility and slow growth. The ministry stated that the suspension would allow for an in-depth review of the framework of the tax and its wider economic implications. It added that it would be working with the Customs Service and other stakeholders to create a "more equitable and efficient revenue structure". Nigeria, Africa's biggest economy, is trying to increase non-oil revenue amid falling crude production and increasing fiscal pressures. Businesses have protested against what they consider arbitrary taxes that increase costs and complicate trade. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones.)
Tiny Chain Bridge is leading banker to Trump, Republican campaigns
When Republican projects want a. banker, they don't go to New york city or San Francisco, however to. downtown McLean, Virginia about a 20 minute drive from the. White House, where a onebranch bank next to an automobile service center. has actually beaten bigger monetary competitors to end up being a musthave partner. for political work.
Chain Bridge Bank, independently owned and with some 70. workers, has worked with the project of every Republican politician. Party governmental candidate because John McCain in 2008, consisting of. Donald Trump.
For nearly 20 years the bank established by former Republican. U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald has quietly developed its position by. dealing with politics, where large amounts shift at short notice and. bankers are constantly on call. Its company design, and the group it. serves, could deal with more examination after the bank stated in May it. was thinking about going public.
In the U.S., federal politics is a $20 billion dollar. industry and a number of financial institutions have appealed. and marketed themselves to these entities, said Daniel Weiner,. a director at the Brennan Center for Justice.
Part of it is that the environment is a little Wild West. but part of it is that it is a rather insular neighborhood, people. work by word of mouth.
examined project files filed with the Federal. Election Commission going back to 2007 and spoke to Chain. Bridge's management and customers before its preliminary public. using strategies were announced, to find out how it came to control. the market for Republican political campaigns.
As just recently as 2016, leading Republican governmental. contenders Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio banked at BB&T - a sprawling. North Carolina-based lending institution that was combined into Truist. Financial.
However in the 2024 election cycle, where Republican politicians have. currently raised over $1 billion, every major Republican. presidential candidate, consisting of former South Carolina Governor. Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, was a Chain. Bridge consumer.
The Republican National Committee, the celebration's primary. coordinating body, has been a customer because 2008, although it. likewise has accounts with Truist Financial.
The bank has been so effective due to the fact that it meets the oddball. requirements of political projects in such a way no competitor does,. according to Bradley Cage, treasurer for Trump's 2024 and 2020. campaigns and head of political consultancy Red Curve Solutions.
We don't have time to wait on people's lunch breaks, he. told . If there's an issue at a big bank, I'm not. going to have the ability to call the head of the bank to figure it out.
New accounts at Chain Bridge take minutes to open, even at. short notification. Dog crate, who has opened more than 1,200 accounts at. the bank for clients, as soon as established new accounts in 15 minutes on. a Sunday.
All huge depositors are designated a representative and Cage. has called his as late as 11:00 pm. If that does not work, he. likewise has the chairman's number.
The bank has actually likewise lent cash to projects. During Mitt. Romney's 2012 campaign the bank made a loan against contributions. which had actually been available in but could not be spent up until after the. Republican Politician National Convention, when Romney officially became. the party's candidate, according to Crate.
Projects hurrying to spend for last-minute advertisements or. events can rely on the bank processing transfers right up till. the Federal Reserve stops accepting requests at 6:45 pm.
When larger banks close their wire at 3:00 pm and someone. contacts us at 4:30 pm and they need payment for an occasion. tomorrow, we need to FedEx a check, which is silly, Cage stated.
Chain Bridge's political consumers extend beyond Republican politician. circles. The pro-Israel United Democracy Job super PAC. ( political action committee) and tobacco company Altria's. business PAC are customers, electoral filings reveal. The United States. Chamber of Commerce PAC is too.
The 2024 election project for Republican Mike Johnson added. Chain Bridge Bank to its documentation for the first time within. 3 weeks of his election as House speaker on Oct 25.
We're like Tesla, Fitzgerald, who is likewise Chain Bridge's. chairman, stated in an interview with in January,. referencing the electric vehicle maker that for many years eschewed. traditional marketing.
We have a marketing budget plan that's basically no and. we have actually grown by word of mouth.
GOOD FRIENDS WITH MCCAIN
Fitzgerald's own background in politics was essential to the. bank's development. A Republican politician from Illinois, he released the bank. in 2007, after retiring from the U.S. Senate 2 years previously. His seat was won by previous U.S. President Barack Obama.
Fitzgerald states Senator John McCain, who he called a close. good friend, became the bank's first significant political customer in 2008. when his campaign required a new bank after pulling money from. Wachovia, which was hit hard by the 2008 banking crisis.
They were really worried, Fitzgerald said. They switched to. us due to the fact that we had the cleanest balance sheet.
Electoral filings reveal Chain Bridge joined the McCain. project in April 2008 as one of 4 banks, including Wachovia.
Money has actually poured into politics since then, in large part due. to the 2010 Supreme Court People United decision which relaxed. rules around campaign finance.
Republican prospects for president and Congress raised $2.6. billion in 2020, according to the Federal Election Commission, a. two-thirds jump from 2016. Those figures do not include cash. raised by 3rd party groups like incredibly PACs.
Today, Chain Bridge wins a substantial portion of. political campaign work, according to Fitzgerald, although it is. no monopoly. Electoral filings show the Charles Koch-backed. Americans for Prosperity PAC, which backed Haley's project,. banked with Truist Financial.
Lobbying committees for oil giant Exxon Mobil and. Pfizer bank with Citibank and Bank of America,. respectively, while Google chooses Wells Fargo, according to. electoral filings.
Democrats also have a favored bank. Biden's campaign banks. with the partially union-owned and publicly-listed Amalgamated Bank. , as did Obama and 2016 governmental candidate Hillary. Clinton before him.
ROLLER COASTER BALANCE SHEET
Chain Bridge's balance sheet transfers to a political rhythm. Deposits rise through the election project duration and after that. crater as political leaders invest furiously in the ending up stretch. Deposits fell 21% after the November 2020 election. After the. mid terms in 2022 they dropped 25%.
Confronted with the equivalent of a little bank run every 2. years, Chain Bridge is a conservative lender. It has actually had no. non-performing loans in twelve years, according to its annual. report. Roughly 3 quarters of its $1.2 billion in possessions at. the end of 2023 were investment grade securities or money.
While it stays to be seen what sort of welcome the bank. will receive from the stock market, consumers will keep coming as. long as it preserves its client service culture, states Crate.
We have actually banked at larger banks - Bank of America, JP Morgan,. things of that nature - and we simply don't get the very same. experience, he said. It makes it actually difficult to go anywhere. else.
(source: Reuters)