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China's LNG imports set to slow: Kemp

China appears to have taken advantage of low costs in the area market so far in 2024 to increase the quantity of gas in storage, absorbing some of the extra fuel that would otherwise have been sent out to Europe.

But as storage centers fill and spot rates increase, the consumption is likely to taper over the summer, rerouting more melted natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Europe and speeding up the fill rate at the other end of Eurasia.

To the disappointment of foreign experts, China does not publish data on gas, oil or coal stocks, which are thought about commercially delicate and a matter of nationwide security.

But the country taken in a record 55 million metric tons of gas from overland pipelines and sea-borne LNG in the very first five months of 2024, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

The intake increased from 47 million loads in the first five months of 2023 and 46 million in the exact same duration of 2022, when Russia's intrusion of Ukraine sent out spot gas rates skyrocketing.

It conveniently surpassed the pre-invasion record of 50 million tons embeded in the very first 5 months of 2021.

LNG imports ran above prior-year levels on a monthly basis in between January and May, and pipeline imports were also above prior-year levels in monthly other than April.

Chartbook: China gas imports

At the very same time, domestic production rose to a record 76 million heaps in the very first five months of 2024 from 72 million loads in 2023, 68 million lots in 2022 and 64 million heaps in 2021.

Output from Sichuan, easily the largest gas-producing province, has doubled since 2016, as the federal government has prioritised expansion of domestic fields to reduce dependence on imports.

As a result, the total quantity of gas available from domestic production and imports hit a record 130 million tons in the initially five months of 2024, up from 118 million in 2023 and 114 million in 2021.

China continues to connect more urban families to the gas network to minimize coal burning and enhance air quality.

However the huge increase in the amount taken in up until now this year far outstrips extra demand from homes and industry.

Much of the extra imported gas has actually likely been used to top up domestic storage after stocks were allowed to deplete in 2023 and 2022.

ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

China has a long tradition of actively using government-run inventories to stabilise product rates, which has been seen as a core function of the state.

In imperial China, the government's ever-normal granaries acquired surplus grain when materials were plentiful and sold when products were low to stabilise prices at a moderate level.

In the last few years, the exact same active approach has been extended to oil, copper, aluminium and other products. Now there are signs it is being used to gas via changes in LNG imports.

China's importers have contracted big volumes of LNG from Qatar, Australia, Malaysia and a host of other smaller exporters, but sometimes they have actually had the ability to insist on versatility to resell to 3rd nations.

The outcome is that China can adjust LNG imports and stocks in reaction to changes in area market value.

In 2022/23, flexibility was utilized to cut LNG imports and run down inventories in response to surging spot market prices. In 2024, the versatility has actually been employed in reverse to take in more cheap gas and fill up storage.

But area market prices for gas provided to Northeast Asia have actually climbed to an average of more than $12 per million British thermal units up until now in June, up from less than $9 in February and March.

Costs are no longer especially low-cost compared to prior years. China is most likely to lower discretionary purchases and slow the rate of stock accumulation.

As it retreats from the area market, more LNG will be sent to Europe in addition to price-sensitive customers in south and southeast Asia

Related columns:

- Europe's gas surplus narrows as LNG redirected to Asia. ( June 11, 2024)

- Europe fills gas storage at record rate as Asia's purchasers step aside (May 17, 2022)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy

(source: Reuters)