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Kumba's improved rail performance allows South Africa to haul more iron ore into port
Kumba Iron Ore, South Africa, reported on Tuesday a 12% rise in mineral shipped to ports in the third quarter of the year on the backs of improved freight rail performance. This led to a 7% increase in quarterly sales. Anglo American delivered 10,2 million metric tonnes to Saldanha Port in the third quarter. This compares to 9,1 million metric tonnage during the same time period last year. Kumba's sales totaled 9.6 million tons during the third quarter. This is up from 9 million tons. Kumba, Africa’s largest iron ore mining company, stated in a recent production update that improvements to the freight rail network are mainly attributed to the ongoing cooperation between bulk mineral producers, and the state-owned logistics firm Transnet, to restore the ore shipping corridor. Kumba's iron ore on-mine stockpiles decreased to 5.5 millions metric tonnes from 6.4million metric tons in the month of June due to improved rail performance. Stockpiles at the port increased from 1 million to 1.8 millions metric tonnes at the end September. Transnet's problems, blamed for under-investment, cable theft, and vandalism, forced Kumba, a miner, to reduce their production in order to match Transnet's reduced capacity. Transnet reported an increase of 5% in its freight volume after moving 160 millions metric tons during the year ending March 2025. It aims to haul 180 million metric tonnes in the current financial period. Kumba's annual sales are expected to be at the higher end of its unchanged forecast for sales and production between 35 and 37 million tons. (Reporting and editing by Conor Humphries; Nelson Banya)
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Royal Caribbean forecasts quarterly profit below estimates
Royal Caribbean's current quarter profit was below expectations Tuesday due to higher fuel prices and economic uncertainty. In premarket trading, shares of the company that also predicted an annual profit below expectations were down around 8%. After a boom in demand following the pandemic, the company struggles with customers who are reluctant to spend on expensive cruises due to persistent inflation in the U.S. and uncertainty caused by tariffs. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the company expects a profit per share adjusted for fiscal 2025 of between $15.58 and $15.63. This is higher than its previous forecast of between $15.41 and $15.55 but still falls short of analyst estimates of $15.68, according to LSEG. Analysts' average estimates of $2.89 for the fourth quarter of adjusted profit per share are expected to fall between $2.74 and $2.79.
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Maguire, R.O., "China's changing primary energy mix by 2060"
China is the largest producer of goods and raw materials in the world. It is also the largest consumer of electricity and power worldwide. But aggressive policies aimed at boosting clean energy production and reducing emission will lead to a radical retooling in China's energy mix over the next decades. It will go from being largely fossil fuel based to mostly clean powered by mid-century. Six charts show how China's primary mix of energy - including the use by its power sector, industries and households - will evolve from now until 2060 based on DNV's data. CLEAN POWER DRIVE China has led the world in clean energy growth for over a decade. It is expected to double its output of clean energy within the next 25-30 years. DNV's projections show that clean power sources will provide close to 75% China's energy by 2060. By 2060, China is expected to increase its output of solar power, wind energy and nuclear energy by over 450%. China will drastically reduce its coal dependence over the same period. China currently uses coal to generate 55% of its primary energy. By 2060, this will drop to less than 10%. FOSSIL-CLEAN FLIP BY LATE 2040'S By 2046, China will switch from being mainly fossil fuel dependent to being primarily clean energy based, thanks to the combination of a surge in clean generation and the steep reductions to coal production. Even if the switch is made over several decades, it will still be an extreme move. Fossil fuels account for around 85% (or more) of China's primary energy supply. Electric vehicles are already outselling combustion engines, and China is electrifying its homes, offices, and factories at an unprecedented rate. China's energy transformation efforts will accelerate in the 2030s and 2020s as it continues to shutter outdated fossil fuel power stations, while scaling up clean generation sources across the country. NUCLEAR RISE Nuclear power is expected to be the fastest growing source of clean energy in China from now until 2040. Nuclear generation will increase by an average of 56% by 2040. This is from 4,775 petajoules to almost 18,000 petajoules. This growth rate is higher than the projected growth of solar power (53%), and wind energy (50%) over the same time period. COAL CUTS As China's energy system increases its clean energy supply, it is expected that China will continue to reduce the fossil fuel production system. Data from DNV shows that coal is expected to have the greatest total decline in generation by 2060. It will go from 101,000 petajoules around 2025 down to 13,000 petajoules around 2060. The energy generated by crude oil and gas will also be on a steep decline by 2060 as more vehicles are electrified, and power systems rely on nuclear reactors, renewables, and batteries. Global Share Impact China is the largest producer and consumer of energy in the world. The projected changes to China’s primary energy production mix will have far-reaching implications, particularly for energy products exporters. China is the world's largest coal producer, consumer, and importer. It currently generates around 60% of primary energy from coal. Indonesia, for example, will find it difficult to find new markets as the country reduces its coal dependence in the next two decades. Data from DNV shows that global coal consumption will not disappear by 2060. Even China, which currently accounts for 40% of global coal usage, is expected to continue doing so. China's share in global crude oil and natural gas energy consumption is also expected to decrease from current levels by the year 2060. The country's overall fossil energy share for primary energy will be reduced from 30% to 15%. China's share in global solar and wind energy generation will decline as these technologies are more widely deployed. As China builds up its nuclear fleet, it is expected that China's share in global nuclear power generation will more than double from 16% to 36%. China will continue to lead the world in clean energy production through 2060 and its share will increase from 21% to 26%. China's energy mix is expected to change dramatically in the next few years, and so will its footprint. According to DNV data, China is expected to emit around 13,2 gigatons CO2 in 2025. This is about 34% of the global fossil fuel emission. China's fossil-fuel emissions will be around 2,5 gigatons by 2060. This is 17% of global total. It shows that China's power mix change in the future will have an impact on global pollution trends as well as the energy producers within the country. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and analysis. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on You can find us on LinkedIn.
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UPS forecasts fourth-quarter revenue above estimates, shares surge
United Parcel Service on Tuesday forecast revenue for the fourth quarter above Wall Street estimates, relying on price increases to offset a soft demand from business-to-business in the U.S. The company estimated revenue at about $24 billion. According to LSEG data, analysts' average quarterly revenue was $23.8 billion. In premarket trading, shares of the company rose 12%. The largest parcel delivery company in the world reported a net profit of $1.48billion, or 1.74 cents per share for the three-month period ended September 30. This compares to $1.50billion, or 1.76 cents per share a year ago. UPS and FedEx have seen their volumes fall due to the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on a wide range of Chinese goods, and also because of the removal of duty-free treatments on low-value online purchases made from China-linked retailers such as Temu and Shein.
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Iraq signss agreement with Excelerate Energy for floating natural-gas platform
The Prime Minister's Office announced in a Tuesday statement that Iraq had signed an agreement with U.S. company Excelerate Energy for a floating gas platform. Baghdad is seeking to attract more American investments into its energy industry. Two Iraqi energy officials familiar with the deal said that Excelerate Energy would provide Iraq with the first floating storage regasification units capable of receiving, storing, and regasifying Liquefied Natural Gas. Officials said that the LNG terminal would be located at the port of Khor al-Zubair, on the Gulf. Gas will then be piped to Iraq's electricity grid. Washington is pressuring Iraq to diversify energy sources and to limit its energy ties to Iran. This is because U.S. sanctions have caused gas exports from Iran to Iraq to be repeatedly disrupted. Ahmed Rasheed (Reporting, Ahmed Elimam, Ahmed Rasheed and Jan Harvey)
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Hue and Hoi An, two of Vietnam's most popular tourist destinations, are hit by heavy flooding
In a report released on Tuesday, the Vietnamese government reported that heavy rains in the past few days caused flooding throughout central Vietnam, including in the top tourist destinations of Hue and Hoi An. According to the disaster management agency of the Vietnamese government, rain fell in many parts of Hue (the former imperial city listed by UNESCO) and Hoi An (the ancient town), in the 24 hours ending late Monday. Vietnam is susceptible to violent storms, which can be deadly. Flooding and storms are also common in Vietnam. This causes widespread damage to property. Images circulated on state media showing that Hoi An had been inundated with floodwater, and several houses were submerged to the roofs. Authorities deployed boats to evacuate tourists. According to the report of the agency, flood waters of up to 1-2 meters deep had hit 32 of Hue's 40 communes. According to the government, flood levels in Hue are at record highs. Authorities in central Vietnam have evacuated thousands of people who were trapped by flooding and without power or transportation. According to reports in the media, heavy flooding has also forced the state-run Vietnam Railways Corp. to suspend service between the capital Hanoi (Hanoi) and the business hub Ho Chi Minh City. In a separate government report, the government stated that over 306,000 households and business in Hue and Quang Tri Provinces suffered from blackouts. The weather agency of the Vietnamese government said that the water levels in central Vietnam's main rivers were at their highest point and heavy flooding was expected to continue in the coming days. Landslides would also be a risk, it added. According to official statistics, natural disasters in Vietnam caused property damages worth $611 million and killed 187 people in the first nine month of this year.
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India signss pact with sanctioned Russian company to build civil aircraft
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, the state-owned Indian warplane manufacturer, announced on Tuesday that it had signed a preliminary agreement with a Russian aerospace company subject to Western sanctions to build civil commuter planes. The United Aircraft Corporation agreement marks the first step in producing passenger aircrafts in India, but it could also stoke tensions between India and Western countries who are trying to punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Sources in the industry told us earlier this month that Indian refiners are poised to drastically reduce imports of Russian crude oil, as New Delhi tries to repair its relationship with Washington and convince it to lower import tariffs on Indian goods. UAC is subject to U.S. sanctions, as are the European Union and British. The U.S. Treasury describes UAC as a major enterprise within Russia's military industrial complex. India said that it did not support unilateral sanctions, and criticized the targeting of its relations with Moscow for being unjustified and unfair. It also accused the West of using double standards since the EU and U.S. continue to buy Russian goods worth millions of dollars. HAL, according to a memorandum signed in Moscow will produce UAC’s SJ-100 narrow-body twin-engine aircraft, which can seat up to 100 passengers. HAL and UAC have been partners for many years, with HAL building the Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter aircraft under license for the Indian Air Force. HAL stated in a press release that "this collaboration between HAL & UAC is a result of mutual confidence between the organizations." It's a big step in fulfilling the dream of "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" (self-reliant India), especially in the civil aviation industry. According to the company, the Indian aviation industry will require over 200 jets to provide regional connectivity in the next 10 to 15 years. An additional 350 jets are needed to service nearby international tourist destinations. Amit Malviya is the head of the Information Technology Department in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling party led by Prime Minister NarendraModi. He said that the pact would help India achieve its goal to become a manufacturing hub around the world. In a blog post, Malviya stated that India is now a part of the global civil aviation industry, which has been dominated for years by Airbus and Boeing. Reporting by Shivam Patel, New Delhi Editing Mark Potter
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Maguire, R.O., "China's changing primary energy mix by 2060"
China is the largest producer of goods and raw materials in the world. It is also the largest consumer of electricity and power worldwide. But aggressive policies aimed at boosting clean energy production and reducing emission will lead to a radical retooling in China's energy mix over the next decades. It will go from being mainly fossil fuel-based, to mostly clean-powered, by mid-century. Six charts show how China's primary mix of energy - including the use by its power sector, industries and households - will evolve from now until 2060 based on DNV's data. CLEAN POWER DRIVE China has led the world in clean energy growth for over a decade. It is expected to double its output of clean energy within the next 25-30 years. DNV's projections show that clean power sources will provide close to 75% China's energy by 2060. By 2060, China is expected to increase its output of solar power, wind energy and nuclear energy by over 450%. China will drastically reduce its coal dependence over the same period. China currently uses coal to generate 55% of its primary energy. By 2060, this will drop to less than 10%. FOSSIL-CLEAN FLIP BY LATE 2040'S By 2046, China will switch from being primarily dependent on fossil fuels to a clean energy-based energy mix. Even if the switch is made over several decades, it will still be an extreme move. Fossil fuels account for around 85% (or more) of China's primary energy supply. Electric vehicles are already outselling combustion engines, and China is electrifying its homes, offices, and factories at an unprecedented rate. China's energy transformation efforts will accelerate in the 2030s and 2020s as it continues to shutter outdated fossil fuel power stations, while scaling up clean generation sources across the country. NUCLEAR RISE Nuclear power is expected to be the fastest growing source of clean energy in China from now until 2040. Nuclear generation will increase by an average of 56% by 2040. This is from 4,775 petajoules to almost 18,000 petajoules. This growth rate is higher than the projected growth of solar power (53%), and wind energy (50%) over the same time period. COAL CUTS As China's energy system increases its clean energy supply, it is expected that China will continue to reduce the fossil fuel production system. Data from DNV shows that coal is expected to have the greatest total decline in generation by 2060. It will go from 101,000 petajoules around 2025 down to 13,000 petajoules around 2060. The energy generated by crude oil and gas will also be on a steep decline by 2060 as more vehicles are electrified, and power systems are primarily powered by renewables, batteries, and nuclear reactors. Global Share Impact China is the largest producer and consumer of energy in the world. The projected changes to China’s primary energy production mix will have far-reaching implications, particularly for energy products exporters. China is the world's largest coal producer, consumer, and importer. It currently generates around 60% of primary energy from coal. Indonesia, for example, will find it difficult to find new markets as the country reduces its coal dependence in the next two decades. Data from DNV shows that global coal consumption will not disappear by 2060. Even China, which currently accounts for 40% of global coal usage, is expected to continue doing so. China's share in global crude oil and natural gas energy consumption is also expected to decrease from current levels by the year 2060. The country's overall fossil energy share for primary energy will be reduced from 30% to 15%. China's share in global solar and wind energy generation will decline as these technologies are more widely deployed. As China builds up its nuclear fleet, it is expected that China's share in global nuclear power generation will more than double from 16% to 36%. China will continue to lead the world in clean energy production through 2060 and its share will increase from 21% to 26%. China's energy emissions footprint will also change dramatically in the next few years, as its energy mix changes. According to DNV data, China is expected to emit around 13,2 gigatons CO2 in 2025. This is about 34% of the global fossil fuel emission. China's fossil-fuel emissions will be around 2,5 gigatons by 2060. This is 17% of global total. It shows that China's impending shift in power mix will have an impact not only on the country's producers, but global pollution trends as well. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and analysis. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on You can find us on LinkedIn.
China's LNG imports set to slow: Kemp
China appears to have taken advantage of low costs in the area market so far in 2024 to increase the quantity of gas in storage, absorbing some of the extra fuel that would otherwise have been sent out to Europe.
But as storage centers fill and spot rates increase, the consumption is likely to taper over the summer, rerouting more melted natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Europe and speeding up the fill rate at the other end of Eurasia.
To the disappointment of foreign experts, China does not publish data on gas, oil or coal stocks, which are thought about commercially delicate and a matter of nationwide security.
But the country taken in a record 55 million metric tons of gas from overland pipelines and sea-borne LNG in the very first five months of 2024, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
The intake increased from 47 million loads in the first five months of 2023 and 46 million in the exact same duration of 2022, when Russia's intrusion of Ukraine sent out spot gas rates skyrocketing.
It conveniently surpassed the pre-invasion record of 50 million tons embeded in the very first 5 months of 2021.
LNG imports ran above prior-year levels on a monthly basis in between January and May, and pipeline imports were also above prior-year levels in monthly other than April.
Chartbook: China gas imports
At the very same time, domestic production rose to a record 76 million heaps in the very first five months of 2024 from 72 million loads in 2023, 68 million lots in 2022 and 64 million heaps in 2021.
Output from Sichuan, easily the largest gas-producing province, has doubled since 2016, as the federal government has prioritised expansion of domestic fields to reduce dependence on imports.
As a result, the total quantity of gas available from domestic production and imports hit a record 130 million tons in the initially five months of 2024, up from 118 million in 2023 and 114 million in 2021.
China continues to connect more urban families to the gas network to minimize coal burning and enhance air quality.
However the huge increase in the amount taken in up until now this year far outstrips extra demand from homes and industry.
Much of the extra imported gas has actually likely been used to top up domestic storage after stocks were allowed to deplete in 2023 and 2022.
ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
China has a long tradition of actively using government-run inventories to stabilise product rates, which has been seen as a core function of the state.
In imperial China, the government's ever-normal granaries acquired surplus grain when materials were plentiful and sold when products were low to stabilise prices at a moderate level.
In the last few years, the exact same active approach has been extended to oil, copper, aluminium and other products. Now there are signs it is being used to gas via changes in LNG imports.
China's importers have contracted big volumes of LNG from Qatar, Australia, Malaysia and a host of other smaller exporters, but sometimes they have actually had the ability to insist on versatility to resell to 3rd nations.
The outcome is that China can adjust LNG imports and stocks in reaction to changes in area market value.
In 2022/23, flexibility was utilized to cut LNG imports and run down inventories in response to surging spot market prices. In 2024, the versatility has actually been employed in reverse to take in more cheap gas and fill up storage.
But area market prices for gas provided to Northeast Asia have actually climbed to an average of more than $12 per million British thermal units up until now in June, up from less than $9 in February and March.
Costs are no longer especially low-cost compared to prior years. China is most likely to lower discretionary purchases and slow the rate of stock accumulation.
As it retreats from the area market, more LNG will be sent to Europe in addition to price-sensitive customers in south and southeast Asia
Related columns:
- Europe's gas surplus narrows as LNG redirected to Asia. ( June 11, 2024)
- Europe fills gas storage at record rate as Asia's purchasers step aside (May 17, 2022)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy
(source: Reuters)