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India's weak demand for Urals oil leads to a widening of discounts on the oil
Sources say that the differentials between Russian Urals crude and other grades are under pressure due to the weakening value of the grade in India's ports. Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. PLATTS WINDOW There were no bids or offers reported on the Platts Window for Urals CPC Blend, or Azeri BTC on Wednesday. Five sources have confirmed that U.S. sanctions will dismantle what is left of Litasco. Litasco was once Russia's largest oil trader, and a competitor to Swiss oil giants and top Swiss houses. (Reporting from ;)
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CMA CGM, the shipping giant, resumes Russia trade by bringing in food cargo
The company, CMA CGM of France, which is the third largest container shipping line in the world, said that it has resumed limited service to Russia. This includes transporting food. It did so three years after the company had withdrawn from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. CMA CGM, like other Western companies, ceased its activities in Russia. It stopped its shipping services, and divested its stakes in port terminals. CMA CGM stated in an email that the CNC subsidiary of the group has re-launched shipping foodstuffs to Russia, such as coffee and citrus fruits to meet customer demand. It said that the activity was very limited and strictly conducted in compliance with the sanctions regime. The French newspaper Ouest France reported that CMA CGM did not use its own fleet, but booked space on other vessels to transport its containers. CMA CGM has joined its Swiss rival MSC to ship cargo to Russia. MSC continued to ship humanitarian, medical and food items during the conflict in Ukraine.
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Chinese cruise ships avoid Japan amid diplomatic dispute
Sources and cruise schedules reviewed indicate that Chinese cruise operators are avoiding Japanese ports due to a diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo. This is expected to boost tourism to South Korea. The tensions sparked by the recent events have been cited by tour and port agents. You can also read our blog posts. Japan's new premier could lead to Chinese tourists being redirected from Japan to South Korea. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's new prime minister, told Japanese legislators earlier this month that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could lead to a military response. Adora Magic City is a Chinese cruise liner that visits the touristy island of Jeju in South Korea as well as Japan. According to an announcement posted on the website of South Korea’s Jeju Province, the ship has altered its December schedule to avoid the Japanese ports Fukuoka Sasebo, and Nagasaki, as originally planned. The notice stated that the cruise ship would spend between 31 and 57 hours at Jeju instead of its usual nine-hour schedule. Unofficially, a Jeju official said that the cruise operator asked for a schedule change without giving any reason. The official declined to identify himself as he wasn't authorised to talk to the media. It seems that they are working on a Plan B." Adora Cruises has not responded to a comment request. Japan is counting the costs of the diplomatic conflict. Tokyo-based East Japan International Travel Service said this week that it had lost 80% its bookings for remainder of year. Lee Yong Gun, CEO of South Korean port agent Eastern Shipping told reporters that other Chinese cruise ships were also in discussions to reroute. Lee stated that "if the China-Japan relations further deteriorate and China excludes Japan’s products, culture, and tourism, then I expect Korea to benefit from this." He said that the operator of the "Dream", which departs the Chinese city Tianjin wanted to avoid Japan by rerouting to a South Korean Port in Incheon, or Busan, over the next two weeks, but there wasn't enough time to do so, citing an earlier discussion with the operator. Tianjin Orient International Cruise Line which operates the ship did not reply to a comment request. Details about cruise ships skipping Japan to stay longer in Korea, or even considering it due to diplomatic disputes, have never been reported. According to Qunar, an online travel agency, South Korea was the most popular destination among Chinese tourists in terms of bookings of international flights over the weekend between November 15-16. Many Chinese airlines are offering refunds for routes to Japan. This is expected to increase air travel in South Korea. Jeju Air's executive said that the South Korean budget airline is expecting an increase in Chinese tourism, even though there has been no immediate impact. The chief executive of the South Korean tour agency that caters to Chinese tourists said on Wednesday he just received a request from a Chinese client who asked if an event originally scheduled for Japan in early next year could be relocated to South Korea. He said that "South Korea is clearly going to benefit from this dispute." He said that for the moment, they were in a waiting-and-seeing mode. South Korea welcomed more than half as many Chinese tourists in 2013 due to the territorial dispute between Beijing, Japan and some islands. The Chinese advisory against traveling to Japan has caused South Korean shares in travel-related companies this week to soar. Travel agency Yellow Balloon Tour has seen a 24% increase, and Shinsegae, a department store operator, has seen a 6% gain on the hope that Chinese tourists will switch to South Korea. Travel industry experts said that it may take some time for Chinese tourists to increase in South Korea. Kim Seol Yeong, a tour operator based in Jeju for Chinese cruise tourists, said that the diplomatic dispute had only occurred a few days earlier. It might take some time before we see an increase of Chinese tourists visiting Korea. Luna Wang, 34, from Hangzhou, China, had considered returning to Japan this year, but she may opt for South Korea now. "Now, it seems that Japan is no longer safe for Chinese to travel." She said, "I guess the only option that is good for me to travel to Korea is to go to Japan." The founder of Moment Travel, a Chinese company in Chengdu, noted a dramatic shift in perceptions regarding travel to Japan. Su Shu, the founder of Moment Travel in Chengdu, said that there is now a feeling that anyone who travels to Japan is a traitor. Reporting by Ju-Min Park in Seoul; Casey Hall in Shanghai; and Sophie Yu, in Beijing. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree, Thomas Derpinghaus, and Anne Marie Roantree.
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Lithuania Railway Company stops Lukoil shipments from Russia's Kaliningrad
Due to U.S. Sanctions, the Lithuanian state-owned railway group LTG announced on Friday that it would stop shipments of oil cargoes from Russia's Lukoil into the Russian exclave Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad, located on the Baltic Sea Coast, receives most of its supplies via rail transit via NATO member Lithuania. It can also receive direct shipments via ocean from its own nation. Last month, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Lukoil over the conflict in Ukraine. The OFAC also warned that foreign companies who do business with this Russian group would face consequences if they continued to do so after the November 21 deadline. LTG Group announced in a Friday statement that "cargoes of Lukoil or related companies, oil or petroleum products, will no longer be shipped by rail from Russia to Kaliningrad". The Kremlin said that Lukoil’s international interests must be respected. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Andrius Sytas)
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Since August, the US sanctions have hit India, Russian Urals prices in India have tripled.
Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. Last month, the United States imposed their toughest sanctions to date on Russia's oil sector. They targeted Lukoil & Rosneft. The deadline for companies is Friday to end all business with the two oil producers. Urals crude is a staple feedstock for Indian refiners, since 2023 when Moscow diverted flows to Asia following the European Union's ban on Russian energy. Traders said that supplies to India will fall dramatically as most refiners stop buying. Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner and India’s largest refinery, has stopped importing Russian crude to its Jamnagar facility in Gujarat as of November 20, according to a spokesperson for the company. RUSSIA OIL IMPORTS FROM WESTERN POINTS ARE NEAR OPTIMAL LEVELS Despite sanctions, Russia’s oil exports to western ports are still near their peak, thanks to OPEC+ production allowances, and refinery shutdowns caused by drone strikes in Ukraine. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. Prices for Russian oil delivered into Indian ports are usually set on a "delivered-ex-ship" basis. This means that the price does not include transport costs or other charges paid by the seller. Traders said that the price of Urals crude on board at Russian ports depends on the cargo and supplier. It is estimated to be around $20 per barrel. The majority of shipments are handled on "shadow fleets" linked to Russia, which allows Moscow to keep a portion of the differential in price. The freight rates are stable despite the sanctions against vessels. Aframax tankers carrying 700,000 barrels to Baltic ports cost around $7.5 million per one-way trip, while Suezmax trips are between $8 and $8.5 million, traders reported. They added that Russian oil shipments are still expensive but manageable, as there are enough ships available and Urals is trading below the EU's $60 barrel price limit. Conor Humphries (Reporting and Editing)
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Asia spot prices slightly rise amid high inventories and muted demand
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas rose slightly last week but remained in the $11 range due to well-stocked inventories. Average LNG price for delivery to North-East Asia in January Industry sources estimate that the price per million British thermal unit was $11.66 this week, up from $11.10/mmBtu in the previous week. Toby Copson is chairman of Davenport Energy Partners. He said, "The APAC Market remains largely flat or bearish. This is due to (a) a later start to the winter and unseasonably warm temperatures, which are muting seasonal heating demand." He added that "Geopolitical risks premiums have been mostly priced in. So, unless there are any new supply bottlenecks it will trade within this range until we see an extreme and prolonged drop in temperature." The premium of Asian spot gas to European prices at the TTF hub has been increasing for months. This is mainly due to an increase in charter rates, which meant that bringing cargos from Europe to Asia would be more expensive. Alex Froley said, Senior LNG analyst at ICIS. The wholesale gas prices in Europe fell on Friday morning, as the demand for gas was curtailed by warmer temperatures and expectations of a stronger wind output. Prices increased earlier this week due to a cold snap that drove up heating demand. Froley stated that the spot gas prices at TTF hub have remained fairly stable, and the first cold snap of winter has not caused them to significantly increase. Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Energy. She said that while Europe's storage inventories have decreased, they are still lower than in previous years. On the back of a strong demand for gas to generate electricity, LNG demand is continuing to grow in the East Mediterranean, including Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. Blakeway explained that this, combined with Egypt's rapid procurement of some cargoes, forced sellers to hold back their offers in order to compete for these premium markets. S&P Global Energy's daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in January, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $9.994/mmBtu as of November 20. This represents a $0.49/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF hub. Spark Commodities set the price for December at $10.60/mmBtu. Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, noted that the number of hedge funds trading TTF derivatives reached a record high of over 450 in the past week. This shows the popularity of the EU market for commodity investments. He added that funds bought more TTF-short positions during the week ended November 14, bringing their net position to near zero. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, the U.S. arbitrage for the front-month to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope points to Europe while the Panama Canal arbitrage is open strongly to Asia. The Atlantic LNG rates have risen to their highest level since December 20, 23 at $130,750/day. Pacific rates reached their highest level since August 20,24 at $78,750/day. Marwa Rashad is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources: US threatens to cut off intel and weapons to force Ukraine into peace agreement
Two people with knowledge of the situation said that the United States had threatened to reduce intelligence sharing and arms supplies to Ukraine in order to pressure it to agree to the framework for a U.S. mediated peace deal. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that Washington was exerting greater pressure than in previous peace talks, and that it wanted Ukraine to sign the framework of the agreement by next Thursday. One source said, "They want the war to end and they want Ukraine to pay for the price." Washington presented Ukraine with a plan of 28 points, which endorsed some of Russia's main demands during the war. These included that Kyiv cede more territory, reduce the size of its army, and be banned from joining NATO. A senior U.S. delegation met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday in Kyiv to discuss the path to peace. The U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and the Army Public Affairs chief traveling with the delegation described it as a successful meeting and said Washington was seeking an "aggressive deadline" for signing a document between U.S.A. and Ukraine. (Reporting and writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Philippa Fetcher and Peter Graff).
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Freeport LNG Texas's export plant will take in more natural gases on Friday, according to data.
LSEG data, as well as regulatory filings, show that the U.S. liquefied gas company Freeport LNG was on schedule to receive more natural gas in Texas on Friday. This is a sign of one of three liquefaction train's return to service following its Thursday shutdown. Freeport has been one of the most closely monitored U.S. LNG plants in the world because its changes in operations have caused price fluctuations in global gas markets. Gas prices in the U.S. typically fall when flows to Freeport decrease due to a reduced demand for fuels from the export facility. Prices in Europe usually rise due to the drop in LNG supply available on global markets. The Freeport outage contributed to a 2% decline in futures prices on Thursday in the U.S. Freeport is not responsible for the drop in prices that occurred in Europe. Freeport informed Texas environmental regulators on Friday that Train 1 was shut down Thursday because of a problem with the compressor system. Freeport officials had no comment to make on the incident, but did note that the plant has loaded its 1,000th shipment this week. LSEG reported that gas flow to Freeport was on track to increase to 1.9 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd), up from 1.3 bcfd Thursday. This compares to an average of 1.9 billion cubic feet per day over the previous seven days. Three liquefaction plants at Freeport can convert about 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of gas to LNG. A billion cubic feet of natural gas can supply five million U.S. households for one day. Reporting by Scott DiSavino. (Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
Considering showdown with Hezbollah, Israel presses watch project in Syria
Israel has heightened hidden strikes in Syria versus weapons websites, supply routes and Iranianlinked commanders, seven local authorities and diplomats said, ahead of a threatened fullscale attack on Tehran's essential ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
A June 2 air raid that eliminated 18 individuals, including an consultant with Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, targeted a. private, prepared weapons site near Aleppo, three of the. sources said. In May, an air campaign hit a convoy of trucks. headed to Lebanon bring rocket parts and another raid killed. Hezbollah operatives, 4 said.
Israel has for years struck militant groups backed by. arch-foe Iran in Syria and in other places, in a low-level project. that burst into open conflict after Israel and Palestinian. group Hamas - another Iranian ally - went to war in Gaza on Oct. 7.
Israel has actually given that eliminated dozens of Revolutionary Guards. ( IRGC) and Hezbollah officers in Syria, from just 2 last year. before the Oct. 7 attack, according to a tally by the Washington. Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.
The fight struck fever pitch in April when Israel bombed the. Iranian consulate in Damascus, eliminating the top IRGC leader. for operations in the Levant. In retaliation, Iran fired some. 300 rockets and drones at Israel, practically all of which were shot. down. Israel then assaulted Iranian area with drones.
This direct confrontation, a very first for the two nations,. stopped there. Israel also briefly lowered the variety of strikes. it was performing versus Iranian proxies, said Selin Uysal, a. French diplomat seconded to the Washington Institute, pointing out the. tally, which counted publicly-known attacks in the weeks. right away before and after.
There was a downturn after the face-off in April, she. said.
But they are getting once again due to the fact that of thought Iranian. weapons transfers to Lebanon. There is a kinetic effort in Syria. and Lebanon to interrupt the supply chain between Iran and. Hezbollah.
spoke with 3 Syrian authorities, an Israeli. federal government authorities and three Western diplomats about Israel's. Syria project. The authorities asked not to be called to talk. easily about sensitive matters.
The Syrian officials provided formerly unreported details of. the targets of Israeli strikes around the cities of Aleppo and. Homs in recent months, including the June 2 attack.
All those interviewed stated Israel's relocations recommended it was. getting ready for a full-scale war versus Hezbollah in Lebanon,. which borders Syria, that might start when Israel dials down its. campaign in Gaza.
The statements of our leaders have actually been clear that. escalation might be imminent in Lebanon, the Israeli federal government. authorities said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated last week. that his nation was gotten ready for extremely strong action at its. frontier with Lebanon, where it has actually been battling a so-far. minimal battle with Hezbollah considering that Oct. 8.
War in Lebanon is not inevitable. Israel has actually likewise indicated. openness to diplomatic efforts being brokered by Washington and. France. The Israeli federal government authorities stated the project in. Syria was also targeted at deteriorating Hezbollah and thus. preventing it from a war with Israel.
The Israeli federal government and armed force did not react to. concerns for this post. Israel hardly ever openly acknowledges. targeted killings overseas and has actually not commented on the recent. strikes in Syria. A senior Israeli official stated last year. Israel was figured out to avoid Syria entering into a brand-new. front.
The IRGC and a Syrian government spokesperson did not. respond. Hezbollah declined to comment.
KILLING COMMANDERS, STRIKING SUPPLIES
Syria, a longtime Iranian ally, ended up being the key channel for. Tehran's arms supplies to Hezbollah after Iran deployed military. workers and countless allied paramilitaries from around. 2013 to assist President Bashar al-Assad throughout his country's. continuous civil war.
Some weapons parts are smuggled into Syria while others are. assembled there, the 3 Syrian officials stated.
Israel's Syria project intends to ensure Hezbollah, Iran's. most faithful ally and the linchpin of Tehran's projection of. local power through militant proxies, is as weak as possible. before any type of battle begins, the Syrian officials and. Israeli official stated.
The June 2 killing of Saeed Abyar, described by Iranian. state media as an IRGC consultant, revealed Israel's reach in taking. out key personnel and targeting equipment even when Iran has. attempted brand-new methods of securing weapons and parts bound for. Hezbollah, the Syrian authorities said, consisting of moving the. manufacture of weapons to more concealed or prepared locations.
Abyar was checking out a factory for missiles for. Hezbollah that was concealed inside a stone quarry east of the city. of Aleppo when he was hit, the Syrian authorities said. The. facility remained in a location developed to be difficult to discover and hard to. hit, said one of the officials, an intelligence officer.
Iran blamed Sunday's strike on Israel and the head of the. IRGC has sworn to retaliate.
The authorities said the strike killed 17 other individuals,. including Iran-aligned militiamen. It was the first targeting of. an IRGC authorities since Israel bombed the Iranian consulate, they. said.
But it is not the only attack it has carried out ever since.
An air strike near the Syrian city of Homs on May 29. targeted a lorry carrying parts for directed rockets from Syria. to Lebanon, the Syrian intelligence officer stated. Another strike. on May 20 targeted members of Hezbollah, the officer said.
Before the Iran consulate attack, a series of air strikes in. late March around Aleppo struck discount store high explosives. for missile warheads, the officer stated.
Other attacks have actually targeted Syrian air defence systems that. had in recent years offered Hezbollah and Iranian military. personnel some security to operate, including Russian-made. Pantsir air defence systems, mobile missile launchers that the. Syrian military uses, a Syrian military authorities stated. Other. strikes had actually targeted early-warning radar systems, the official. stated.
Sometimes Israel is hitting even before we install our. equipment, the authorities said.
The Israeli federal government authorities said Israel's targets were. advanced anti-aircraft weapons, heavy rockets and. precision-guidance systems for rockets.
ISRAEL TIPPING THE BALANCE?
The variety of Israeli attacks in Syria leapt drastically. after Oct. 7, when Israel and Hamas fought.
The frequency has doubled, said the Washington Institute's. Uysal.
Israel carried out 50 air campaign in Syria in the 6 months. after the Gaza war started, she said. These consisted of attacks on. Aleppo airport, the Nairab military airport, Damascus airport,. and the Mezzeh military airport, which are key in weapon. transfers. Weapons caches were likewise among the targets.
The strikes have consisted of the killing of some 20 IRGC. authorities and more than 30 Hezbollah commanders, Uysal said. In Between January and October of 2023, 2 IRGC authorities and no. Hezbollah leaders were killed by Israeli strikes in Syria,. Uysal stated.
The attacks in Syria definitely stop arms and ammunition. deliveries and damage the capability of Hezbollah or Iran to. organise, said Lior Akerman of Reichman University, a previous. Brigadier-General in Israel's domestic security service.
Iran sends restricted varieties of consultants to Syria, such as the. senior IRGC authorities killed in the consulate battle. Hezbollah. has released thousands of fighters there.
Hezbollah main Nawaf Musawi informed the Iran-aligned Al . Mayadeen TV channel in March that the group was opening new. ammo depots and getting more precision rockets and. better quality weapons by land, sea and air.
Farzan Sabet, a senior researcher at the Geneva Graduate. Institute who specialises in Iranian foreign policy, said. attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Iran's allies in Iraq and. Yemen during the Gaza war had taken a toll on Israel.
However it has actually eliminated much more Hezbollah operatives and senior. figures consisting of IRGC workers in Syria, so on balance it's a. bigger loss for Iran's allies, Sabet stated.
(source: Reuters)