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China closes the gap with US to become Germany's largest trading partner

The German Statistics Office released preliminary data showing that China was close to surpassing the United States in the first half 2025 as Germany's biggest trading partner. German exports to America were declining amid increased tariffs.

Calculations show that German exports and imports to the U.S. amounted to 125 billion euro ($145 billion) between January and June. Trade with China was 122.8 billion euro.

Vincent Stamer is an economist at Commerzbank. He said that although the U.S. managed to maintain its status as Germany's top trading partner, it was only a razor-thin lead in German trade with China.

In 2024, the U.S. overtook China as Germany's number one trading partner. This ended an eight-year streak of China. Germany was trying to reduce its dependence on China. Berlin blamed political differences with Beijing and accused Beijing of unfair business practices.

In 2025, the trade dynamics will shift again with Donald Trump returning to the White House, and new tariffs. In July, the EU-U.S. trade agreement set tariffs of 15% on most products.

Juergen Matthews, director of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research's international economic policy, said that the losses in German exports will continue to grow and may even increase as the year progresses.

German exports to America fell by 3.9% in the first six months of the year, to 77.6 Billion Euros.

Commerzbank predicts that new U.S. Tariffs will slow Germany's Exports to the U.S. between 20% and 25% in the next two Years.

Stamer stated that "China is likely to return to the top of Germany's trading partners by the end of the year."

CHINESE IMPORTS SURGE

In the first half of 2018, imports from China increased 10.7% compared to last year, and reached 81.4 billion euro.

Stamer stated that German consumers and companies find it difficult, "to replace Chinese products"

Carsten Brzeski is global head of macro at ING. He believes that the rise could be a sign that China is redirecting its trade from the U.S. into Europe and flooding the German market with cheaper goods. Matthes, of Cologne Institute, says that a significant undervaluation in the yuan compared to the euro makes Chinese imports more affordable.

Exporters struggled amid increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers.

A sharp drop in exports to China combined with a surge in imports has resulted in a record-breaking trade deficit of over 40 billion euros. This is only second to the one set by 2022.

Matthes stated that "all these developments harm the German economy, and worsen the industrial crisis."

(source: Reuters)