Latest News

Global freight rises however shows indications of weak point in United States: Kemp

International production activity and freight are revealing indications of a recovery, after a. recession took hold in the 2nd half of 2022 and lasted for. the majority of 2023, which could support petroleum usage and. rates later in 2024.

But signs from the United States have been more mixed. and producers there might have a hard time until the reserve bank. starts to cut rates of interest to stimulate usage of. expensive durable products.

Worldwide industrial output was up by 1.6% in the three months. in between February and April 2024 compared to the very same duration a. year previously, according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic. Policy Analysis (CPB).

Commercial activity has actually been increasing relatively slowly. however gradually because the fourth quarter of 2023 steadying. product prices ( World trade screen, CPB, June 25, 2024).

Worldwide freight has likewise started to increase with volumes up by. 0.9% in between February and April 2024 compared with the exact same. duration a year earlier.

Freight volumes are increasing at the fastest rate given that the. onset of the slump in late 2022, though growth is weak. compared to the previous three years.

Chartbook: Global freight cycle

In Asia, freight has increased more highly. Containers handled. through the port of Singapore reached a record 16.9 million. twenty-foot comparable units between January and May 2024 from. 15.7 million TEUs a year previously.

South Korea's KOSPI-100 equity index, which is greatly. weighted towards export-oriented production services, has. risen to 30-month highs as the trade cycle turns upward.

Even in Japan, Narita International Airport reported. seasonal air freight increased in April for the first time in more. than 2 years.

At the other end of Eurasia, London's Heathrow Airport. dealt with a record 0.62 million tonnes of air freight in the very first. five months of the year, the greatest because before the pandemic. in 2019.

The image in the United States is much more mixed, with. strong growth in container freight through ports, however softness. in internal freight by rail and roadway.

The top nine U.S. container ports handled nearly 11 million. TEUs in the first four months of the year up from less than 10. million TEUs a year ago.

The number of shipping containers hauled by the major. railroads has actually grown at around 10% from prior-year levels however. there are signs the rebound has stalled given that the start of 2024.

By contrast, roadway freight has actually continued to decline albeit. more slowly than in 2023. The continued recession in trucking. likely describes why intake of diesel has actually been remarkably. weak in late 2023 and early 2024.

The strength of the dollar against other significant currencies is. most likely encouraging imports while high interest rates moisten. need for pricey long lasting products made at home.

Both U.S. manufacturing production and new orders for. non-defence capital goods excluding volatile transportation. items, a proxy for organization financial investment, have actually been flat over the. in 2015.

The healing is showing much slower and more patchy than. expected at the start of the year, weighing on diesel. intake and oil prices.

Related columns:

- U.S. manufacturing output has flat-lined, moistening diesel. usage (June 21, 2024)

- U.S. makers in halting recovery but diesel usage. lukewarm (June 7, 2024)

- Worldwide freight velocity will lift fuel costs (March. 27, 2024)

- U.S. producers struggle to grow once again without interest. rate cuts (March 5, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)