Latest News

Key international natural gas prices set to keep increasing into 2025: Maguire

Gas prices in Asia, Europe and North America have climbed by around 30% to 50% so far in 2024, and look set to keep increasing over the coming months as forecasts for cold weather trigger greater heating up need in key consumer centers.

Active restocking of rapidly-declining gas inventories in Europe and Asia need to also stimulate strong gas demand, even if temperature levels turn moderate once again in those locations.

That ought to ensure gas market sentiment remains broadly bullish till the upcoming winter is over, which prices may have little scope to pull back till well into 2025.

High and rising gas costs in turn look set to raise power costs throughout essential international markets, jeopardising fragile financial growth in China, Europe and in other places and raising fresh concerns about inflation.

Rapidly climbing gas-fired generation costs likewise raise the likelihood of greater generation by coal-fired power plants, which are currently less expensive to run than gas-fired plants but generate around 55% more emissions per unit of power output.

COLD WINTER SEASON COMING

Greater gas-fired generation for heating across North America, Europe and North Asia is the main near-term driver of worldwide gas rates.

Those areas represent over two-thirds of international gas use, and are all set to get in the peak period for heating need over the coming months.

What's more, for the first time in years, average temperatures across the essential gas markets of China, Japan and mainland Europe are all set to slip listed below long-term averages this month.

This will snap the recent run of reasonably moderate winter weather throughout those areas seen over the previous couple of years, and will lead to an integrated increase in gas-fired heating need that ought to even more raise gas market prices and sentiment.

In Seoul, South Korea, average temperature levels throughout December are set to typical around unfavorable 2.17 degrees Celsius (28. degrees Fahrenheit), compared to a long-lasting average of negative. 0.7 degrees Celsius, according to LSEG.

Shanghai, Tokyo and Hong Kong are also set to tape-record average. temperature levels of well below-normal this month.

The resulting rise in heating demand across those higher. metropolitan areas - home to over 100 million individuals - will. trigger faster burn rates of natural gas and coal, and an. sped up draw on power fuel stockpiles over the rest of 2024.

In Europe, a drop in temperatures to below-normal levels is. also forecast this month, especially in the gas-heavy power. markets of Italy and Germany, according to LSEG.

STOCKS DRAW

The pick-up in gas use across Europe has actually currently triggered a. rapid drawdown in the area's gas stockpiles.

Between October 1 and the end of November, cumulative gas. inventories held in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France. decreased by 11%, according to LSEG.

That compares to fairly flat gas inventories over that. duration in 2023, a 3.5% increase in gas stocks in 2022, and an. typical draw of only 2% over that period given that 2017.

The outright level of cumulative gas stocks in those. nations as of December 1 is also the most affordable for that date. because 2021, which was before Russia's intrusion of Ukraine resulted in. cuts in pipelined gas flows to the area.

As a result, power companies will be under pressure to try to. reconstruct those inventories over the coming months even as they. increase gas burn-rates due to rising heating demand.

In the United States, existing gas stocks are. the highest in over 5 years, according to the U.S. Energy. Information Administration.

However, they are likewise on the cusp of the conventional. draw-down period when stockpiles decline by approximately 9%. over the final five weeks of the year.

This indicates that even the obviously plentiful gas stocks held. in the U.S. will tighten considerably heading into 2025, and. will further underpin gas market belief.

FUEL SWITCHING

Lots of power systems throughout Asia have the leeway to burn more. coal rather of gas to meet the higher heating need, and will. decide to do so if the expense of gas-fired generation rises too far. above coal generation.

In Japan, the expense of spot melted gas (LNG) is. currently around 44% above the average coal-to-gas switching. cost, and indicates that coal-fired power manufacturers will be. incentivized to raise output faster than gas-fired producers.

Power companies in China, South Korea and other parts of Asia. that also have the flexibility to utilize either gas or coal for. generation will likewise likely decide to raise coal output much faster.

That could trigger a downturn in the pace of gas use in. Asia, and set the phase for possible rate pull-backs in Asian. markets.

However, increasing gas need by power firms in Europe will. likely more than balanced out any demand drops in Asia, and ensure. that worldwide gas rates remain fairly well supported through. the coming winter season.

That indicates that despite the fact that lots of crucial natural gas markets. have already climbed up by 50% already this year, more cost. boosts are most likely coming.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a market. analyst .

(source: Reuters)