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Japan's super-long JGB yields near 1-month high due to spending concerns
Investors cited concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi's plans to spend. The yield on the 20-year JGB rose by up to 2 basis points to 2,695%. And for the 30-year JGB, it rose by 2 bps to 3,195%. These are their highest levels since October. Takaichi announced this week that she would set a new fiscal goal extending over several years in order to allow for more flexibility with spending. This is a way to water down Japan's commitment towards fiscal consolidation. Takashi Fujiwara is the chief fund manager of Resona Asset Management’s fixed income division. The increase in yields was also a result of a poor outcome in the 30-year bond sale in the previous session. Fujiwara said that the sale of 30-year bonds would be limited, as the demand and supply may be equal. The Japanese finance ministry has cut back on the amount sold during the auctions. The market was spooked by the lack of demand for long-term bonds at auctions held earlier this year, which caused a spike in the yields. This prompted the Ministry to reduce the issuances of securities with maturities between 20, 30, and forty years. Fujiwara said that the ministry could announce a further reduction in 30-year bond sales during a meeting with primary dealers scheduled for later this month. The yields on short-dated bonds were not much different, with the 10-year JGB yield slipping 0.5 bp down to 1.685%. The yield on the five-year JGB was unchanged at 1.245%. However, the yield on two-year JGB rose by 0.5 bps to 0.935%. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Junko Fujita)
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EU Naval Force takes control of the dhow used by pirates in Somalia
An EU naval mission has taken over control of a dhow flying the Iranian flag that pirates used last week in an attack on an oil tanker off Somalia's coast and abandoned. Recent attacks by Somali pirates on ships off the Horn of Africa have rekindled fears about the safety of shipping routes that carry vital energy and goods into global markets. Operation Atalanta - the EU's naval force - said that the crew of the dhow were safe and in good health. It added that they worked with Somali authorities to find the pirates. The Indian Navy warship and the flagship of the operation closely monitored the dhow abandoned by alleged pirates off the coast of Somalia's northwestern tip. "The pirate group... operating in this area has definitely been disrupted." Pirates had taken the fishing boat, a dhow, in the beginning of this month. A few days later, they used it to board a tanker flying the Maltese flag, the Hellas Aphrodite. It was carrying Indian gasoline from India to South Africa. The EU navy force captured the tanker Friday. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Winning, Clarence Fernandez and Clarence Fernandez; Reporting by Vincent Mumo Nzilani & George Obulutsa)
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Report shows that holiday travel demand is down across the board.
Even high-income travelers may not be as eager to travel this holiday season, according to a Deloitte report released on Wednesday. The report shows that Americans plan on taking fewer trips in the coming year and spending less money on them due to growing financial worries. Report: The number of holiday trips planned has decreased to an average of 1.83 from 2.14 last years, and the average budget for planned travel is down 18% at $2,334. The report stated that the tighter budgets are rooted in a more tempered money mood. Nearly one fifth of households with incomes over $100,000 per year, or wealthy Americans, reported that they were in a worse financial situation than a previous year. About 80% plan to opt for cheaper travel options. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, as well as Marriott International, a hotel operator, all pointed out that there was a solid demand in the last two months for premium offerings, such a premium seats and luxurious hotels. This trend could be changing, with a disproportionate effect on airlines and tour operators, since high-income travellers tend to spend more money and travel further. The prolonged U.S. shutdown has also put holiday travel at risk. According to airline estimates, the government shutdown forced airlines to reduce flights and delay 3.2 million passengers. The report found that millennials were the most likely to adopt generative AI for travel planning. They have increased their adoption by 1.5 times in comparison with 2024. The report found that while travelers are most likely to use generative AI for finding activities and attractions, restaurant recommendations were the most likely to be followed.
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Bousso: The IEA's optimistic oil forecast is a wink to Trump and a wake-up for the world.
The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook indicates that oil demand could continue to rise into 2050. This is a dramatic shift from previous reports, and it serves as a reminder of the importance of black gold in the global economic system. The IEA published its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday. It outlines different paths for energy demand up to 2050. This is a fairly routine release, but this year it has become a political issue. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has accused the Paris-based energy watchdog of politicising its report that suggests fossil fuel demand could plateau in 2030. Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary of the United States, has called peak oil demand a "nonsense". The 2025 report presented a new scenario that showed that oil consumption will not plateau by 2030, but instead will reach 113 million barrels a day at mid-century. This is an increase of around 13% over 2024. TROUBLING MESSAGE ABOUT GLOBAL WINTER WARMING The Current Policy Scenario's (CPS) "existing policies", which are baked into it, range from renewables laws and fossil fuel extraction to construction standards and vehicle emissions standards. The CPS scenario, which is the most common among IEA's projections, takes a "prudent perspective" in regards to the adoption rate of new technologies. It therefore gives fossil fuels a greater role in the future. This reversal may be welcomed by former critics of IEA as a dose of reality that is needed to counteract the organization's green tendencies. To be fair, the previous scenarios were probably overly optimistic regarding the implementation of climate friendly policies and the move away from fossil-fuels. The message CPS sends is disturbing, even if you put aside the political issues. The report indicates that temperatures will rise by 2.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2100. This is far more than the 1.5 degree target set by scientists to prevent the worst impacts of climate changes. If you're right, then the world is in serious trouble. CPS IS BASED ON QUESTIONABLE ASSURANCES The CPS, however, is based on some very questionable assumptions. It assumes, first, that recent technological leaps, which led to sharp drops in the costs of batteries, renewables and electric vehicles, will stagnate or even decrease in certain countries until 2035. The report also assumes that internal combustion engine efficiency will slow after 2035. This is a trend that has lasted for decades. The CPS's optimistic oil demand forecast is based on a conservative estimate of the growth rate for EV sales. In 2025, EV sales will account for 25% of global new car sales, up from 5% of sales in 2020. The energy outlook is impacted by the projections related to automobiles because today, road transport accounts for 45% of oil consumption worldwide. The CPS assumes that the EV market share in the United States, India and China will remain at 15%. It is difficult to extrapolate from the fact that EVs have become cheaper and more advanced in recent years to project future demand. Will U.S. customers really continue to use an old technology when newer technologies become more affordable? The CPS also assumes that gasoline and diesel will continue to increase in consumption until 2050. This would require new refinery capacity. This type of investment, which is capital intensive, will not be possible unless oil prices continue to rise for a significant period. Obviously, higher gas prices will make internal combustion vehicles less competitive with battery-powered cars. CPS is based on the assumption that the barriers to the adoption and development of low-carbon technologies are only going to increase. These assumptions are somewhat baffling, given the huge investments that are expected to be made in this field globally. Investments in clean energy technologies are projected to reach $2.2 trillion by 2025. NET 'ZERO HOUR'? The IEA has a right to acknowledge the political and economic realities which have prevented the world from meeting various climate commitments. The IEA is correct to note that climate change has slowed down in recent years due to the shock of energy prices that came after Russia's invasion in Ukraine in 2022. Energy security has become the focus of attention, as opposed to energy transition. After President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris Climate Accord on the first day his second term, the United States dealt a severe blow to energy transition efforts. Since then, he has rescinded many of the green policies and regulations that were prominent under his predecessor. The energy transition remains an economic necessity. This is because the scientific consensus shows that the rising costs to prevent climate change are far greater than the costs associated with deploying cleaner technologies. The IEA's forecast will be a sobering read as world leaders and scientists gather at the COP30 Climate Summit in Belem Brazil. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Typhoon Fung Wong floods Taiwan; thousands are evacuated
Taiwan evacuated over 8,300 people in advance of the arrival on Wednesday of Typhoon Fung Wong, a weaker version of which brought heavy rains and flooding to Taiwan's mountainous east coast. In the southernmost part of the island, businesses and schools were closed. 51 people were injured. Images on television showed that the waters were neck-deep in some parts of Yilan county, a largely rural area of eastern Taiwan. Soldiers were attempting to rescue those who had been stranded. The water came in quickly, said Hung Chun Yi, a fisherman who spent the evening clearing mud out of his home, which was engulfed by 60-cm-deep (2-ft-deep) waters. The drainage system couldn't handle the rain. Fire department officials said that about 8,300 people had been moved to safer areas. This was mostly in Yilan, and the nearby Hualien area, where the monsoon rains from the north had swollen the rainfall along with the unseasonably delayed typhoon. Weather officials reported that the town of Dongshan in Yilan received 794 mm of rain (31 inches) on Tuesday. Fung-wong will likely graze the southernmost tip of Taiwan on Wednesday evening before moving into the Pacific Ocean. After sweeping through the Philippines and killing 27 people, it lost considerable strength. Hualien was devastated by floods caused by a typhoon that hit in September. The typhoon that hit the north this week will not affect Hsinchu in the north, which is home to TSMC (the world's biggest contract chipmaker). (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Additional reporting by Mikhail Flores, Yimou Lea and Ben Blanchard)
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Typhoon Fung Wong floods Taiwan; thousands are evacuated
Taiwan evacuated over 8,300 people in advance of the arrival on Wednesday of Typhoon Fung Wong, a weaker version of which brought heavy rains and flooding to Taiwan's mountainous east coast. In the southernmost part of the island, businesses and schools were closed. 51 people were injured. Images on television showed floods in the rural county of Yilan. The waters were neck-deep, and soldiers were attempting to rescue those who had been stranded. The water rushed in quickly, said Hung Chun Yi, a fisherman who spent the entire night cleaning mud out of his home, which was engulfed by 60-cm-deep (2-ft-deep) waters. The drainage system couldn't handle the rain. Fire department officials said that about 8,300 people had been moved to safer areas. This was mostly in Yilan, and the nearby Hualien area, where the monsoon rains from the north had a multiplied rainfall due to the typhoon's unseasonably late arrival. Weather officials reported that the town of Dongshan in Yilan received 794 mm of rain (31 inches) on Tuesday. Fung-wong will likely graze the southernmost tip of Taiwan on Wednesday evening before moving into the Pacific Ocean. After sweeping through the Philippines and killing 18 people, it lost a lot of strength. In Hualien, 18 people were killed by floods caused by a typhoon that hit in September. (Reporting by Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Clarence Fernandez) The typhoon won't directly affect Hsinchu in the north, which is home to TSMC. TSMC is the largest contract chipmaker in the world. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Yimou Lea and Ben Blanchard)
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Dominican Republic restores power following nationwide blackout
The Dominican Republic announced on Tuesday that it had restored some electricity after an earlier nationwide blackout. In a press release, the power company of the state said that the national power system is gradually being restored after a failure occurred at San Pedro I Substation at 12:23 p.m. Echavarria, during a recent press conference at the Energy Control Center, said that the number of megawatts generated by the Energy Control Center will continue to grow as the stabilization progresses. He said that power has been restored to parts of Santiago and San Cristobal as well as Santo Domingo Norte, the southern part of the country and other areas. The electricity sector said that some public transport services have resumed and are now free in certain parts of the capital. Authorities added that hydroelectric plants were first to connect to the grid, followed by a number of thermal plants in a gradual, but effective, process to ensure grid stability and safety. (Reporting and Writing by Paul Mathiasen; Editing by Brendan O'Boyle).
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Venture Global signs 20-year LNG Supply Deal with Japan's Mitsui
Venture Global announced on Tuesday that it had signed a long term agreement with Japanese trading company Mitsui for the supply of LNG at 1.0 million tons per year. Japan, which is the second largest LNG importer in the world after China, seeks stable and flexible energy sources to support its growing data center construction. Wood Mackenzie analysts estimate that these facilities will use the same amount of electricity as 15 to 18 million Japanese households by 2034. This is responsible for 60% of Japan's growth in power demand. Venture Global has now signed its third agreement with a Japanese customer. The company signed a deal to supply JERA by 2023, and an agreement with INPEX by 2022. This move will also help President Donald Trump in his efforts to increase U.S. LNG Exports. The United States is already the top exporter of super-cooled fuel and to improve the trade balance between Japan and domestic producers. Mitsui has agreed to purchase fuel from Venture Global starting in 2029 for a period of 20 years. The announcement was made on the same day Venture Global dropped 11% after news broke that Shell had appealed its arbitration loss against Venture Global. This came weeks after rival BP gained a similar case valued at more than $1 billion. The two arbitration cases relate to Venture Global's failures to deliver LNG in accordance with long-term contracts, while the prices of LNG on the spot market soared following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Shell stated in a recent filing that while it is difficult to appeal arbitration decisions, they believe an appeal is warranted because Venture Global hid crucial evidence. Venture Global has been signing more and more supply agreements with global energy companies. It has already secured 6,75 MTPA in long-term contracts for 2025. The U.S. company has signed 20-year contracts with Naturgy of Spain and Atlantic-SEE Gas Trade of Greece. These agreements are in addition to those with Petronas SEFE Energy, and Eni. Reporting by Dharna Baffna from Bengaluru and Curtis Williams from Houston. Editing by Tasim Zaid.
Maguire: Gigawatt growth – How global power pipelines are taking shape.
Once projects currently in construction are completed, and power is directed onto electricity grids and generation systems, the global power generation capacity will increase by about 25%.
Global Energy Monitor's data shows that 1,450 gigawatts of new power capacity are currently being built around the globe. When completed, this will increase the power footprint in the world from 8,000 to 9,500 GW.
The majority of fossil fuel capacity is being built by coal-fired power plants, with the remaining two-thirds coming from renewable energy sources like solar and wind farms.
Asia is the region that accounts for nearly all of the planned capacity expansions. The Americas are currently the location of the second largest amount of capacity construction.
Here is a breakdown on the power pipelines currently being built, based on power sources and geographic locations. It also shows how new projects will impact the final mix of power generation.
CLEAN BREAK
Solar farms are the biggest contributor to the 950 GW clean energy capacity that is being built. Around 345 GW new solar power capacity is currently under construction.
Around 267 GW of hydropower capacity are currently under construction. Wind farms follow with 251 GW.
Around 82 GW new nuclear capacity, 7.5GW new bioenergy, and 1.8GW new geothermal energy are also under construction.
GEM data indicates that clean energy sources currently account for approximately 46% of all power in operation. However, after the completion of a clean-heavy pipeline of construction, they will represent 49% of total power.
FOSSIL MOMENTUM
A third of global power pipelines being built will use fossil fuels.
Around 275 GW of coal-fired generation is currently being constructed around the world.
A further 215 GW is being built of gas-fired capacity, which will increase the total fossil fuel production capacity from 4,326 GW to 4,815 when all projects are completed.
After all the clean and fossil fuel capacity is completed, the fossil fuel share in global generation capacity will drop to 51%.
ASIA-DRIVEN
Asia is the leading region for the construction of new power plants, with 84% of the projects under construction currently located in the area.
Asia is home of around 83% all clean energy projects, and 85% all fossil fuels projects. This is a testimony to China's massive energy needs and manufacturing power in energy components.
Asia has 99% of coal-fired power capacity in the world, and 68% of new gas-fired capacities are being built there.
GEM data indicates that once the projects currently in construction are completed, Asia's share in global power capacity will increase from 53% to 58%.
Around 65% of new power capacity will be powered by renewable energy. This will bring Asia's current power mix up from 37% clean and 63% fossil fuels to 44% clean and 56% fossil fuels.
When projects are completed, the Americas will lose 21% of its current power capacity.
Once current construction is completed, the mix of America's power capacity, which is currently fairly evenly split between clean and fossil sources, will change to 51% clean and 49% fossil fuels.
Europe's share in global power capacity is expected to fall from 19% down to 17% after all construction projects are completed. The continent's share clean of total power will stay largely the same at 68%.
After the current work is completed, Africa and Oceania are expected to continue having a 4% share in global power generation.
Once construction is completed, Africa's clean-fossil energy capacity will change from 28% clean and 72% fossil fuels to 33% clean and 67% fossil fuels.
Oceania will shift from an even mix of fossil and clean fuels to a mix of 54% clean fuels, 46% fossil after current construction projects have been completed.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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(source: Reuters)