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Maguire: The countries in Europe most affected by the Russian gas phase out are Maguire and ROI.

Due to the wide variation in country dependence on gas and their ability to switch to alternative suppliers, some countries will be more affected than others by the European Union's plan to phase out Russian gas imports.

Hungary and Slovakia, two landlocked countries that are heavily dependent on gas to power their industries and generate electricity, are considering legal action against EU.

In the months to come, the EU hopes to see more opposition and refinement of the final plan.

Below is a breakdown on the most gas-dependent countries in Europe and regional trends for gas imports. This can help to identify potential disputes among affected countries.

Total Energy Needs

Some countries are more dependent on gas than others.

While Germany is the largest consumer of natural gas on the continent, it ranks 8th in the region when it comes to the share of gas in total energy supply.

According to the Energy Institute, Italy will be Europe's gas-dependent economy in 2024. It will source 38% of all its energy from natural gas.

In terms of the share of total energy supplied by gas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and Hungary round out the top 5.

Six major European countries depend on natural gas to provide 30% or more of their total energy, so it is justified that they are resisting policies which threaten to reduce these supplies and hinder power production and industrial activity.

SWITCH OUT EASE

Nine of the 10 countries in Europe that are most dependent on gas in terms of energy supply have direct access major ports, which could theoretically allow imports of LNG.

Only Hungary, a landlocked country, lacks the seaport needed to build a LNG import terminal. This partly explains the opposition of the country to the EU directive to phase out Russian gas imports.

Slovakia, whose energy is largely supplied by gas, has similar geographical constraints as Hungary, and therefore felt obliged to join Hungary's opposition to the EU plan.

Due to the distances between import terminals and the limited pipeline connections with other exporters, other heavy gas users from Central Europe such as Croatia, Austria, and Romania face similar economic challenges when it comes to accessing non-Russian supplies.

PREMIUM LNG

Even countries with a large number of LNG import terminals will find it difficult to switch from Russian gas.

Russian gas is not always available at the lowest prices but it costs less than LNG.

The prices of Russian gas and U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas tend to change over time. Exporters tend to be very secretive about the exact details.

Nevertheless, estimates by the industry have placed Russian pipeline supply at between $6 and $8 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu).

LNG imports into Europe are priced between $12 and $15/MMBtu, which is roughly 50% higher than Russian pipelined supply.

In recent months, the European LNG market has seen a drop in prices due to the fierce competition between LNG exporters. This has led to a reduction in the price differential between LNG and pipelines for existing buyers.

LONG-TERM SOLUTION?

If European countries want to replace Russian pipeline supplies permanently, they must continue to be a large and regular LNG importer.

According to Kpler's data, the total import of LNG in Europe has surpassed 284 billion cubic metres so far this year. This is a record, and represents a 23% increase from the 2024 import total.

The strong increase in LNG imports has given LNG exporters a boost. Many plan to expand LNG export capacity during the next few years, assuming that LNG import demand is expected to continue growing.

The current LNG import frenzy is not sustainable, as the import total for this year is only 0.3% higher than the import total of Europe in 2023.

Gas demand in Europe is at risk of being limited by the rapid growth of power generation using non-fossil sources in recent years.

Ember data shows that the generation of clean electricity in Europe has increased over 11% since 2019. The generation of fossil fuels has decreased by 15%.

Even if the Russian supply is phased out in accordance with the plan, a continuation of these trends would still limit the growth potential of LNG imports to Europe.

In the short term, however gas will continue to play a vital role in Europe, both for electricity production and industrial processes.

Even though social and government pressure is mounting to reduce purchases of Russian gas, many utilities and businesses in Europe are heavily dependent on it for their daily operations. They will not be forced to do without.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)