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Maguire: US-driven gas-turbine crunch could speed up global clean energy adoption

The rush by U.S. utilities to buy as many gas turbines possible to boost their local power output has caused a global shortage in gas-power equipment. This may prompt other power systems into accelerating the development of cleaner alternatives.

According to Global Energy Monitor data, the?amount? of U.S. natural gas-fired power plants that are under construction has increased by more than two-thirds since a year earlier, and the amount?of capacity?in preconstruction has risen more than fivefold from early 2025.

The U.S. surge in gas-fired capacity is pushing delivery dates for new 'gas turbines' into the 2030s. Meanwhile, the cost of utility-scale solar farms with battery energy storage systems continues to fall.

Companies in other countries are prioritising non-gas power sources as a result of the combination of increasing uncertainty in the gas supply chain and the availability of cleaner power alternatives.

Rapid Growth at Home

According to GEM, the U.S. pipeline of new gas-powered generator capacity has exploded over the last year. The total capacity under construction is expected to more than double by 2025 and reach 30 gigawatts.

Pre-construction capacity for U.S. Gas has risen by?420% since early 2025, to just under 159 GW.

Pre-construction capacity in the U.S. represents one third of global capacity pipelines at the same stage of development. This means the U.S. holds a record share for the "global power supply pipeline" of gas.

Utilities are the main contractors for the new capacity planned, but a few so-called hyperscalers such as Meta and Microsoft intend to power their facilities directly from gas plants.

The appeal of gas-fired electricity in the U.S. has been boosted by the strong policy support in Washington and the record high production of domestic natural gas.

The promise to reduce restrictions on gas exploration in federal lands has also led to expectations that U.S. supplies of gas will continue to grow and remain the most abundant energy?source for U.S. utilities.

COOLING Demand Overseas

There are signs of a waning enthusiasm for gas power in other countries.

Gas prices have risen to three-year highs last month in the U.S. and nearly doubled so far in Europe this year.

Gas-importing countries also do not want to become dependent on potentially belligerent trading partner.

The fallout from Russia's invasion in Ukraine 2022 is still affecting several European gas-consuming countries. They are hesitant to replace these lost supplies by importing LNG from the U.S., while President Donald Trump uses tariffs and threats of trade as tools of coercion.

In Asia and Africa as well, energy sovereignty is a growing concern. The production of materials related to the energy transformation - such as solar panels and batteries - creates local jobs while also reducing energy imports.

MOVING TARGETS

It is estimated that 52% of global gas pipelines in pre-construction are based in Asia or Africa. Around 234 GW of planned capacity in Asia, and another 19.3 GW on the continent, will be built.

China has 61 GW in pre-construction, on top of the 31 GW that are currently being built. It is increasing its overall gas-powered footprint.

The wide time frame of the pre-construction project means that these capacity levels will change. This is especially true in China, where the mix of generation changes at an 'unprecedented speed.

China is the world's leading producer of renewable energy and manufacturer of clean-energy components. Its utilities and government are prioritising energy derived from domestic sources over imported fuels.

Solar panels and battery storage system are increasingly popular with utilities around the world.

Beijing continues to place a high priority on supporting these manufacturing and export-oriented industries. This means that China will continue to ship a large amount of clean energy components, even though gas turbine scarcity is increasing.

The prospect of affordable, abundant renewable equipment may be more appealing to global power system managers than the uncertain timeline and high gas prices for gas power components.

This could lead to a divergence of global power systems, with the U.S. becoming ever more gassy while other major markets choose a cleaner composition.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)