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Maguire: Booming LNG exports in the US could be dragged into the cost of living debate

Last year, U.S. LNG exporters consumed more natural gases than households and commercial enterprises combined. This tightened U.S. supplies of gas and put the LNG export boom in the frame of discussion surrounding rising U.S. electricity costs.

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters consumed a record amount of natural gas (5,000 billion cubic feet or 141.6 billion cubic meters).

This total is significantly higher than the approximately 4,000 BCF gas consumption by residences, as well as the 3,000 BCF gas consumption by commercial sites in the same period. LNG exporters now rank third among U.S. gas consumers behind the industry and power firms.

Last year, the U.S. benchmark natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) rose by 61%.

Natural gas power plants provide around 40% of the U.S.'s electricity - more than any other power source. This increase in gas prices has led to a rise in electricity bills, which reached all-time-highs in 2013.

Voters in the United States are likely to push back against any further increases in electricity bills, as they already face record-breaking costs in insurance, housing and food.

This means that LNG exporters, who compete with power companies and households for gas, could face criticism even though additional LNG export capacities are due to be installed and will increase the potential U.S. LNG volumes.

STEEP GAINS

The amount of gas purchased by U.S.?exporters of LNG during the first eleven months of 2025 was 209% higher than the same period in 2019.

The average increase in total gas consumption for residences, businesses (restaurants and hospitals), industries and power companies was 3%.

This?means LNG exporters were by far the fastest-growing source of U.S. Gas demand in the last decade. It has resulted in dramatic changes in the domestic gas market dynamics. These are characterized as tighter gas supply for other consumers, and higher volatility in natural gas price.

In terms of?price, all major consumer groups will face steeply higher gas prices in 2025 than they did in 2019. Residential and commercial properties will see a 50% increase while industries and power companies are likely to experience a 30% hike.

As a result of the steep rise in gas prices, many major end users have tried to replace it with other power sources. This has meant, in most cases, electrification for heating and power systems in homes and businesses.

In 2025, as gas prices rose, utilities increased output of cheaper coal-fired plants.

LNG EXPORTER'S IMPACT

LNG exporters are able to absorb the higher costs of domestic gas more easily than their rivals, since the price of LNG on foreign markets is multiples the local gas cost.

EIA data show that the average U.S. export price for LNG in 2025 will be around $7.87 per 1,000 cubic feet, compared to a benchmark Henry Hub price of $3.66.

This means that LNG exporters can easily add a $2 fee per MCF for liquefaction as well as an additional $1 per MCF for shipping and still make money when selling LNG overseas.

Many LNG exporters have seen their margins increase as a result of several LNG cargoes being sold on the spot markets at higher prices. This has prompted them to expand as rapidly as possible.

According to the EIA’s most recent short-term energy outlook, the total North American LNG export capability could more than double by 2027. It would go from 11.4 BCF in 2024 up to 24.3BCF at the end of the year.

PRICE RESPONSE

This steep increase in export capacity could trigger a new surge of LNG exports and cause gas supply to be further restricted for domestic consumers.

This could lead to even higher gas prices for other buyers of gas, such as households using gas for heating or power companies generating electricity.

EIA data show that households will pay the most for gas in 2025. Prices are expected to average around $19 per MCF.

Gas is also more expensive for industrial and commercial users. The average commercial price was around $11.44/MCF in the past year, while the industrial price was around $5.05/MCF.

Last year, even power companies - who have access to wholesale gas pools that other consumers don't - saw their average gas prices rise sharply to $3.95/MCF.

This shows that the LNG export boom is putting pressure on all major gas users. They could therefore push back against factors that would threaten to?increase the price of this critical resource.

This suggests that LNG exporters could come under intense scrutiny by 2026, and face pressure to curtail their expansion plans. Even if this slows down the pace of LNG sale and undermines U.S. energy dominance.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)