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Maguire: The US gasoline market is set to be tested again after a near-record draw of stock.

The near-record drawdown of gasoline inventories in the United States is flashing a warning to fuel markets. The system is losing its buffer as seasonal demand is peaking.

This combination doesn't guarantee shortages, but it increases the chances of unexpected price changes if something goes wrong with replenishing inventory during peak U.S. Driving season is upon us.

U.S. gas prices have already risen by 50%, to near four-year highs, since the U.S. war with Israel against Iran began February 28. They currently average $4.33 a gallon.

After 15 weeks of reductions in gasoline inventories, the national stockpiles are at their lowest level for this time of the year since 2014.

A durable Middle East peace deal that restores tanker traffic quickly through the Strait of Hormuz may help to limit further price increases in the short term and prevent further steep reductions of U.S. gasoline stock.

Any resumption of military hostilities which threatens to further hinder oil production and exports out of the Middle East is likely to spark a new rally in U.S. gas prices this summer. This will fuel cost-of-living concerns across the nation.

Record Run

EIA data show that the 15-week decline in U.S. gasoline stocks since mid-February?is equal to the longest stock draw on record which took place between mid-February 2012 and late May 2012.

U.S. gasoline stocks are now around 211.5 millions barrels. This is down from 253 million barrels just before the Iran conflict began and 5.5% lower than the average five-year figure for this time of the year. If the stock continues to fall, 2026 will be the year that the national gasoline stocks are continuously reduced without being replenished. The next update of EIA stock data is scheduled for June 3.

A further reduction is likely, given the fact that gasoline consumption in the country has been steadily increasing as families begin to go on summer vacations. At this time, domestic crude oil stocks are also experiencing a sharp decline due to the shortages caused by Iran's war.

The U.S. crude inventories are expected to decline for a sixth consecutive week, the longest stretch of weekly oil decreases since 2024.

RISE IN PROCESSING RATES

As U.S. refiners increase processing rates to boost refined product output, further declines in crude stock are likely.

The U.S. refined 16.9 million barrels last week. This was the largest weekly processing volume since November last year. It should lead to a rise in refined product sales.

It is not clear if any of this extra supply will reach the domestic market. This is because many U.S. refining plants are designed to serve export markets, where gasoline and diesel prices can be higher than in the U.S.

Retailers will most likely be able to buy up any excess fuel that makes it on the U.S. Market in order to meet domestic demand.

The consumption patterns are likely to continue increasing as the end of the U.S. School Year marks the beginning of the busiest time for U.S. motorists, when families hit the road on vacations and for family visits.

This rising demand is likely to result in further draws on U.S. gas stocks, which may lead to further increases in gasoline prices. These are already near multi-year records.

The author is a columnist and he has expressed his opinions here.

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(source: Reuters)