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INDIA RUPEE - Rupee finishes month and quarter slightly lower than most Asian counterparts
The Indian rupee fell on Monday, ending the month and the quarter slightly lower. It trailed most Asian counterparts amid muted portfolio flows and was weighed down due to the country's deficit in external investments. The dollar closed the day at 85.7550 against the currency, down by 0.3%. In the face of a general dollar decline, most Asian currencies have suffered modest losses. The Indian rupee has not changed much in the past year, but Asian currencies such as the Taiwan Dollar and Korean won, which are closely monitored by the rupee, have increased about 13% and 8 % respectively. Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese Yuan, another closely-tracked currency, is up more than 2%. Analysts cite India's deficit in external investment as one of the main reasons for the rupee's poor performance. Investors are hedging against the persistent weakness of the dollar and boosting currencies in countries like Korea and Taiwan that have large investment surpluses. The dollar index has fallen over 10% in the first half of the year, weighed down by concerns over U.S. fiscal and trade policies, fears over the future independence and expectations for a reduction of benchmark interest rates. The rupee has also suffered from a sluggish portfolio flow, with foreign investors pulling a net of about $0.5 billion out of local bonds and stocks over the quarter April-June. Analysts expect the rupee to be supported by a weaker dollar despite the relative underperformance. DBS stated in a report that "we see scope for USD/INR consolidating in an 84 to 86 range with a downward bias." It added that it might lower its USD/INR forecast if US Federal Reserve pivots toward a rate reduction later this year, setting the stage for further USD weakness. On that day, traders reported that dollar bids by foreign banks and state-run bank weighed down on the rupee despite the fact most Asian counterparts posted gains.
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Second ally of Biya's Biya in the presidential race
Bello Bouba Maigari, the Tourism Minister of Cameroon, has accepted nomination by his party to run for president in an upcoming election expected to take place in October. The long-serving president Paul Biya is yet to declare whether he intends to run again. Why it's important Maigari is a former Prime Minister who has served President Biya as a close ally for over 30 years. He accepted the nomination of the National Union for Democracy and Progress on Saturday. However, he did remain in his cabinet position. In recent days, he is the second minister of government from the north to announce his presidential candidacy. This could signal a possible rupture in the strategic alliance that Biya’s central government has with influential northern elites. CONTEXT Biya, 92, has been in power since 1982. He hasn't confirmed if he intends to run for reelection. Maigari announced her candidacy last week, following the resignation of Issa Bakary from the government. He was a former spokesperson for the government and cited widespread calls for change. Three provinces in northern Cameroon, Adamawa, North, and Far North, have over 2,000,000 voters. They hold significant electoral power. By the Numbers According to preliminary data, more than 8 million Cameroonians are registered to vote in the nation of 30 million people that produces cocoa and oil. Reporting by Amindeh Blaise Atabong, Editing by Ayen deng Bior and Joe Bavier
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Early heatwave causes wildfires to rage in Turkey and France
On Monday, a heatwave in the region prompted firefighters to battle wildfires across Turkey and France. The wildfires in Turkey have raged for the second day, and were fanned on by strong winds. Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli confirmed this, and said that four villages, as well as two neighbourhoods, had to be evacuated. As smoke billowed from hills marked by charred trees, footage of teams using tractors and water trailers as well as helicopters to carry water was shown. Scientists say that climate change has caused the summers to become hotter and dryer, causing wildfires in Turkey's coastal areas. Authorities and local media reported that in France, where temperatures will peak on Tuesday and on Wednesday, wildfires broke on Sunday, when temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius. Authorities said Monday that the fires had been brought under control, but they were not yet out. Meteo France, the weather service in France, has issued an orange heatwave warning for 84 departments of France. This alert will last until mid-week. The Education Ministry announced that 200 schools would be closed at least in part over the next few days due to the heat. HEATWAVE RHINE SHIPPING IMPACTS Commodity traders claim that the heatwave has caused a drop in water levels along Germany's Rhine River. This has affected shipping and increased freight costs for cargo owners. The Rhine is a major shipping route for grains, minerals and petroleum products. Cologne could see temperatures of up to 40 C. Temperatures were predicted to reach 42 C in Seville, south Spain, where world leaders were gathered for a United Nations Conference. The heat was a problem for tourists. Mehrzad Joussefi from the Netherlands said that it was "really hot right now". The national weather service AEMET has said that Spain is on track to have its hottest ever June. AEMET has forecast that the heatwave will peak on Monday. Ruben delCampo, spokesperson for the weather service, said that intense heat would continue to be felt in Spain over the next few days. The Health Ministry of Italy issued red alerts on heatwaves in 21 cities including Rome and Milan. IlMeteo.it, a weather forecast website, said that temperatures could reach 41 C on Monday in Florence and 38 C in Bologna. According to its president, the Lombardy Region, which is part of northern Italy's industrial heartland and includes the region of Lombardy, plans to ban outdoor work during the hottest hours of the day. This follows a union request. Heat can have a variety of health effects, but experts are particularly concerned for the elderly, babies, outdoor workers, and those who are struggling financially. Swiss Re stated earlier this month that extreme heat worldwide kills 480,000 people each year, exceeding the combined toll of floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes. It also poses a growing risk to infrastructure, economy, and healthcare systems. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S said this month that global surface temperatures were 1.4 C above the pre-industrial period between 1850-1900, when humans started burning fossil fuels at an industrial scale. Scientists believe that the burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of climate changes. The planet experienced its hottest year ever in 2018. (Additional reporting from Emma Pinedo and Alvise Arinelli in Madrid; Writing by Ingrid Melander, Editing by Janet Lawrence.
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Moody's: India's new rules on infrastructure lending will support loan growth
Moody's Ratings stated on Monday that India's final rules for easing provisions in loans to infrastructure projects under construction are likely to boost credit growth. Moody's reported that the Reserve Bank of India cut its provisioning requirement from 5% to 1% earlier this month. This move is expected to increase banks' willingness and ability to fund infrastructure development. Moody's stated that they expect that the finalization of guidelines will reduce uncertainty and support medium-term economic growth. Moody's reported that infrastructure credit declined by 0.8% from April 2024 to April 2025, after the Reserve Bank of India tightened lending standards in May. Moody's added that non-bank financiers of infrastructure also lagged behind, with an annualised growth rate of 6.9% between March 2024 and September 2024 compared to 13.2% for NBFCs as a whole. In India, prolonged project delays and overly-optimistic revenue forecasts led to major loan defaults. Lenders are now cautious about infrastructure lending. The new rules will be in effect starting Oct. 1. Ratings agency says state-owned banks, non-bank lenders and those most exposed to infrastructure will see a slight negative impact on their profitability if loans aren't disbursed before October 1. However, this is likely to be a one-off event. Moody's stated that additional steps, such as extended deadlines and commercial operations for project completion will support asset quality. (Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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Dubai at 17-year High, Dubai and other Gulf markets mix in early trading
The major Gulf stock markets traded mixed on Monday morning, with the Saudi index falling on profit-taking while the Dubai exchange reached its highest level for seventeen years. Dubai's main stock index rose 0.7% to its highest level since May 2008. Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties also gained 0.8%. National Central Cooling Co. (Tabreed), meanwhile, grew by 2.1%. Tabreed, a private equity firm, and CVC DIF's infrastructure strategy division, CVC DIF plan to buy Multiply Group, based in Abu Dhabi,'s district cooling company. CVC DIF has entered into a partnership with Tabreed to purchase PAL Cooling Holding for a value of approximately 3.8 billion dirhams (1.03 billion dollars). Multiply Group shares rose more than 6%, to 2,52 dirhams. This is the highest since over a year. In Abu Dhabi the index rose 0.6%. Market attention was also focused on the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States, and Canada. Canada has repealed its digital service tax to help advance trade negotiations with America, Canada's Finance Ministry said in a Sunday statement. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index fell 0.1% on Monday, ending a five-day streak of gains. The drop was caused by the 1.4% decline in Al Rajhi Bank, and a 0.2% fall in Saudi Aramco, an oil giant. The oil prices, which are a major catalyst for Gulf financial markets, have continued to fall on fears about increased production from OPEC+. Last week's 12% drop was a result of this. Qatar Navigation lost 1.3%, while the Qatari index dropped 0.2%.
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Poland's Orlen won't buy Russian oil anymore, CEO of the company says
Ireneusz Fafara, the chief executive of Orlen's Czech refinery, said that after June 30th, it will no longer purchase Russian oil. Orlen said that the contract with Rosneft to supply Russian oil to the Litvinov Refinery in Czech Republic is the last contract linking it to Russian oil. Fafara said at a press conference that "we freed Central Europe today from Russian oil." In April, the Czech Republic announced that it was becoming Fully independent The completion of the capacity upgrades of the TAL pipeline from the west has resulted in the first time ever that Russia will be able to supply its own oil. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Czech Republic has tried to reduce its dependence on the Druzhba Pipeline, which has delivered supplies from Russia for years and accounted for half of the country's oil imports each year. At the end of last year Czech pipeline operator MERO completed an upgrade along the Transalpine (TAL) pipeline, which carries oil from tankers in the Italian port of Trieste to Germany, where it feeds into the Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvinov (IKL) pipeline to the Czech Republic. Orlen stated that the Czech refineries currently receive crude oil from a variety of sources, including the North Sea, Mediterranean, South and North America and Africa. (Reporting by Marek Strzelecki, Editing by Louise Heavens)
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Middle East flights suspended by airlines
After the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which ended on Tuesday with a ceasefire brokered by the United States, many airline services are still disrupted throughout the Middle East. Safety concerns and airspace closures continue to impact airline traffic in this region. Here are a few airlines that have canceled flights from and to the region. AEGEAN AIRLINES The Greek airline has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut as well as to Amman and Erbil until the early flight on September 8th. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has announced that it will cancel all flights from and to Tel Aviv up until 30 September. AIR CANADA The Canadian carrier suspends its flights between Toronto and Dubai until the 4th of August. The Canadian carrier had already delayed the resumption to service between Canada and Israel until September 8. AIR EUROPA Spanish airline cancels flights from and to Tel Aviv through July 31. AIR FRANCE-KLM Starting July 7, the French flag carrier will resume its flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle to Tel Aviv. The French flag carrier plans to resume flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle, and Beirut on June 28. KLM has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, until at least the 31st of July. DELTA AIR LINES Travel to, from or through Tel Aviv could be affected between June 12 and July 31. EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES The Israeli airline reported that flights were running as planned on June 29. Only a few flights had been cancelled. Sundor will resume flights on July 1. EMIRATES Emirates has cancelled all flights from/to Tehran up to and including the 5th of July. Baghdad operations will resume on July 1, and Basra operations on July 2. FINNAIR Finnair has cancelled all flights from and to Doha until June 30th, as well as flight AY1982 for July 1. Finnair also added that they would not be flying over the airspaces of Iraq, Iran or Syria. FLYDUBAI The UAE airline announced that it would resume its full network schedule on July 1. British Airways, owned by IAG, has announced that flights to Tel Aviv will be suspended until July 31, and flights to Amman or Bahrain until June 30. Iberia Express - IAG's low cost airline - has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv up until October 25, 2010. ITA AIRWAYS Italian Airlines announced that it will extend the suspension of Tel Aviv flight until July 31. This includes two flights scheduled for August 1. JAPAN AIRLINES The Japanese airline has cancelled all flights to Doha from July 2 until July 2. LUFTHANSA GROUP Lufthansa has suspended flights from and to Tel Aviv, Tehran and Beirut until July 31. Amman and Erbil flights are cancelled through July 11. German Airlines added that they would not use the airspace of these countries until further notice. PEGASUS Turkish Airlines has announced that they have cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan until the 7th of July. QATAR AIRWAYS Qatar Airways will resume its flights to Baghdad on 30 June. Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Najaf will be available from July 1. Basra and Basra are scheduled to begin July 3. Qatar Airways will resume all flights to Beirut, Amman and Najaf from July 1. Flights to Iran are temporarily suspended. RYANAIR Ryanair has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, and Amman up until October 25. UNITED AIRLINES According to the U.S. airline, travel from and to Tel Aviv could be affected between June 13, and August 1, 2018. There may be problems with flights to and from Dubai between June 18th and July 3th. WIZZ AIR Wizz Air announced that it has suspended all flights to and from Tel Aviv, Amman and Jordan until September 15, 2015. Hungarian airlines will not fly over Israeli, Iraqi and Iranian airspaces until further notice. (Reporting and compilation by bureaus, compiled by Agnieszka Olesnka, Elviira Loma, Tiago Brancao, Alison Williams, Matt Scuffham)
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INDIA RUPEE - Traders focus on key resistance for the rupee as weak dollar boosts Asia Forex
The Indian rupee was not much changed on Monday. Traders focused on a crucial resistance level that the currency must surpass to maintain an upward bias. A broadly weaker dollar helped other regional currencies. As of 12:20 pm IST the rupee was trading at 85.52 to the dollar, almost unchanged from Friday's close at 85.4750. The Asian currencies are mostly higher. The Chinese yuan is up by 0.1%, and it's close to its highest level since November of last year. This was boosted by Chinese central banks decision to increase the daily reference rate. Dollar index last quoted at 97.1. This is near its lowest level in more than three years. Market optimism about U.S. Trade Deals boosted bets on earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar-rupee future premium also increased as a result of the increased bets on Fed rate reductions. The implied yield for 1-year rose 2 basis points to 1.99%. The rupee's gains were however capped on Monday by wide based dollar bids, even though traders expect that the Indian currency will trade with a slight positive bias in near term. A trader from a foreign bank says that the 85.30-85.40 range is the key area to watch. Dollar demand by state-run banks at these levels had previously capped the rupee's gains in the first half of the month. The trader pointed out the 200-day moving median, which is around 85.35 cents, as another important technical level for the rupee. India's benchmark equity indices are trading in the red, while the yield of the country's 10-year benchmark bond is almost flat. (Reporting and editing by Jaspreet K. Kalra)
Planning ministry: Egypt's economy will grow by 4.77% during Q3 2024/25
The planning ministry reported on Monday that Egypt's economy increased by 4.77% during the third quarter 2024/25 fiscal, compared to 2.2% a year ago, thanks to a recovery in manufacturing.
The fiscal year runs between July and June.
The manufacturing sector grew 16.3% during the third quarter. This is a recovery from the 3.9% drop in the same quarter in the previous fiscal.
The oil and gas extraction industry continued to contract, with a contraction of 10.38%.
The Planning Ministry also released the fourth-quarter revenue numbers for the Suez Canal. These figures show a decrease to $900 millions from $1.1 billion one year ago. The planning ministry reported that activity for the third quarter fell by 23.1%, compared to a decline of 51.6% in the previous year. It did not give exact figures.
(source: Reuters)