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Maguire: US gas capacity to jump by a lot as renewables slow down

According to data from the U.S. Power Capacity Pipeline, U.S. developers plan to increase natural gas and hydropower capacity and reduce plans to build new solar and wind farms.

Global Energy Monitor data shows that by mid-2025 the U.S. had approximately 114,000 megawatts of natural gas power capacity in construction or so-called "pre-construction" according to Global Energy Monitor.

This capacity total is over twice as big as what developers had planned a year earlier. GEM data show that gas plants are the largest source of power among all the planned capacity additions in the construction and preconstruction stages.

The developers have also increased the planned capacity for nuclear and hydropower generation compared to a year earlier, and made significant cuts in solar and wind power plans as compared to mid-2024.

The sudden change in energy policies of the federal government following Donald Trump's reelection is evident by the large changes made to the mix of power capacity planned.

The schedule for gas-heavy developments also shows how utilities prioritize dispatchable energy sources over intermittent renewables in their scramble to keep electricity supplies up to date with the rapidly increasing demand.

FIRE UP

Around 46% of the U.S. electricity capacity is currently generated by natural gas plants, with 36% in construction or pre-construction.

Around 16,300 MW are currently being built, and around 98,000 MW are in the pre-construction stage, where sites have already been identified, and permits have been obtained.

U.S. utilities plan to add around 36,000MW of hydropower and nearly 8,000MW of nuclear power in addition to the 114,000MW of natural-gas-powered capacity.

These diverse power sources share a common characteristic - they can all be dispatched by utilities to balance the system's power requirements.

Around 159,000 MW of dispatchable capacity is currently in the developer pipeline, compared to 57,000 MW a year earlier.

CLEAN CUTS

The capacity pipeline of renewable energy is a lot smaller than the dispatchable power footprint. Renewable power is often called intermittent power, because it can only be produced when the wind and sun are blowing.

The total solar capacity under construction or pre-construction currently is approximately 92,000 MW. This compares to around 112,000MW in 2024 at the same development stages.

The current wind power capacity under development is approximately 65,000 MW. This is down from 74,000 MW one year ago.

Around 155,000 MW in renewable energy capacity are currently being constructed, down from 186,000 MW one year ago.

The fact that some capacity previously under construction is now operational can explain why there are apparent reductions in the pipeline of renewable energy development.

GEM data show that solar power capacity grows quickly. The total capacity of solar panels in operation has increased from 120,460MW in 2024, to 121,311MW at present.

By mid-2025, the operating wind capacity in the United States increased from 150.592 MW.

The growing wait time for new power assets, especially wind farms, to be connected to local grids and the increasing costs of parts and materials are also reasons for the reduction in the renewable pipeline.

The Trump administration has cut back on future tax breaks and subsidys, which has led to a reduction in some renewable energy capacity plans. This is especially true for states that already have long waiting times to interconnect.

RE-CHARGING

Utilities are building new battery storage capacities rapidly to store excess power generated by renewable assets and discharge it during peak demand periods.

According to Cleanview, the energy data portal, around 8,000 MW battery capacity will be added to U.S. utility networks by the end the year.

This new battery capacity will bring the total U.S. utility scale battery capacity up to 46,000 MW this year.

The expanded battery capacity allows utilities to better utilize the renewable energy capacity that is already in place. It also ensures that solar power that exceeds the system demand during sunny periods can be stored and used later.

This will allow the U.S. power system to continue to become cleaner, even though the rate of growth in solar and wind energy capacity continues to be slower than previous years.

The increased gas development pipeline ensures that natural gas will remain the main pillar in the U.S. power generation system after the current construction of all types of power is completed.

STAYING GAS-HEAVY

Once construction and pre-construction are complete, the share of gas capacity in the U.S. overall power system will be 44%. This is more than double that of any other source.

Once the current construction frenzy is over, wind and solar will surpass coal.

Wind and solar both have a 10% and 12% share respectively of the total capacity currently in operation.

Wind and solar power will be around 14% of the total energy mix once projects currently in construction or pre-construction have been completed. Coal power will fall to about 12%.

After the building is completed, clean energy sources will increase their share in the overall capacity mix of the grid from 39% to 44%.

This means that, while the U.S. electricity system will continue to be primarily powered by gas, clean energy sources will make up the majority of the remainder and play a major role in the ongoing efforts to reduce pollution in the U.S. Energy System.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)