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Analysts say that the US waiver on shipping and the release of stockpiles won't ease the pain at pumps.

Analysts said that a potential waiver of U.S. shipping regulations and the release of record oil stocks by world governments could slow down the pain consumers have been experiencing at the gas pumps in the U.S. since the start of the Middle East conflict, but not eliminate it. The U.S. is considering removing the Jones Act, which limits shipments to U.S. ships only. This comes after the White House announced on Thursday that the U.S. had agreed to provide 172 million barrels towards the International Energy Agency proposal to release 400 million barrels from member reserves. The measures were 'designed to curb the rise in oil and fuel costs caused by Iran's nearly complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This poses a major threat to both the global economy as well as the Republican Party of U.S. president Donald Trump in the midterm elections of November. Analysts said that the measures are insignificant compared to the "supply disruptions" affecting the oil markets.

Joe Brusuelas is the chief economist of RSM, a U.S. consultancy. He said that "the reserves release" will not stop oil price increases, but rather slow them down. It also offers a temporary relief from the burning pain caused by rising?gasoline costs. Over 20 million barrels of oil per day flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This is about 20% of global consumption. The IEA has yet to announce the exact timeframe for its proposed release. However, it would be 6.6 million barrels a day if done over 60 days.

The average U.S. retail gasoline price hit $3.60 per gallon for the first since May 2024 on Thursday, and diesel prices reached $4.89, the highest level since December 2022.

The JONES Act Waiver Will Have A Limited Impact On U.S. Fuel

Alex Hodes is the director of StoneX's market strategy and believes that the potential waiver under U.S. law Jones Act could alleviate fuel shortages in certain regions.

Jones Act is considered to be a factor in the rise in fuel prices for parts of the United States that do not have pipelines connecting them to the refining hub on the Gulf Coast. This is because there are very few vessels in service that meet the Jones Act's requirements. California and other markets, such as Puerto Rico, are left reliant upon imports.

Hodes stated that "More supplies in the U.S. Gulf Coast can now fill any shortages we may see in New York Harbor, which is important during times of high demand or low supply."

GasBuddy analyst, Patrick?De haan, said that the waiver's effectiveness is limited to reducing fuel prices in some U.S. markets, not reversing the increases. Fuel prices will follow the?oil price upward.

He said: "The oil markets are trying to figure out where they can find the 20,000,000 barrels per day of Middle East oil that's being disrupted. The Jones Act waiver and the releases don't add up much to that." (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis in New York, with Shariq Khan reporting from New York)

(source: Reuters)