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Maguire: Mid-year checkup of the US power system vital signs

If the U.S. energy sector underwent a mid-year checkup, the doctor would have a positive verdict: vital?signs are improving, clean energy continues to gain strength, and long-standing illnesses are getting better.

The transition is far from complete but the trendlines remain strongly pointed in the correct direction.

The total output of electricity continues to increase as the system gets cleaner.

According to the energy think tank Ember the total electricity production from January through June reached?2,234 Terawatt Hours (TWh). This is the highest output ever recorded for this?half-year?period and represents a 3% increase from the previous year.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a large part of this growth will be driven by AI-hungry, data centers, and electrification. The EIA expects U.S. electricity consumption to reach record highs in 2026-2027 for a fourth consecutive year.

The rapid expansion of the electricity supply appears to be a sign of a healthy patient. Before announcing a clean health bill, it is important to examine the following vital indicators.

VITAL SIGN 1: CLEAN POWER APPROACHING PRIMARY STATUS

Clean electricity is now a regular source of more energy than fossil fuels. This is the clearest sign that we have made progress.

According to Ember, from March through May, clean energy?sources generated more than 50% of the electricity supplied by U.S. utilities, which is the longest stretch ever recorded.

Clean sources provided 46.4% all of the electricity in June. This is when summer demand increases gas-fired power generation.

This compares to 42.4% by?June 2025, and 41.7% by June 2024. It shows that clean-power is growing despite the aggressive push of the U.S. government to promote fossil fuels instead of renewables.

Diagnose: Clean power is becoming the dominant source of energy during the key months of the calendar year.

VITAL SIGN 2: SOLAR STRENGTH

Solar power is the fastest growing part of our energy system.

According to Ember's data, solar power production reached 51 TWh in June for the first time, and 231 TWh during the first half of 2012.

Solar generation in?June of 2025 was approximately 41.5 TWh. The first half output for last year was 190 TWh - a growth rate year-on year of over 20%.

Solar's share in the U.S. power mix has also risen to new heights. Since March, it has consistently contributed more than 10% to the total utility mix.

Diagnosis : Solar power has evolved into a major contributor to the U.S. energy system.

VITAL SIGN 3: COAL CONTINUES TO SHRINK

The oldest chronic disease in the sector continues to decline.

Coal's contribution to generation has fallen from 32% at the beginning of 2016 to only 11.7% by April 2026.

In April 2026, coal-fired electricity generation will total only 39.8 TWh compared to more than 113TWh in January 2016

The high summer temperatures, coupled with the demand for air conditioners that consume a lot of power, have increased coal-fired production. However, its output year-to date is still around 11% lower than last year.

Diagnosis : Coal is still a part of the mix for generation, but it's no longer an essential resource.

VITAL SIGN 4: POLLUTION KEEPS FALLING

The changing generation mix is affecting emissions.

According to Ember, the total power-sector emission in June was just under 146 million tons of carbon dioxide or equivalent gases.

This is a drop from the nearly 154 millions tons of emissions in June 2025. Despite an increase in electricity production, power sector emissions have fallen by 5% in a year.

Spring 2026 produced particularly strong results, with total emission levels of only 114 million tonnes in March and 109 millions tons in April. These are among the lowest levels recorded in the dataset.

Diagnosis : Cleaner generation translates into real emission reductions and not just cleaner capacity additions.

VITAL SIGN 5: NATURAL GAS REMAINS KEY

Not all indicators point to a successful transition.

During the first half 2026, natural gas will still generate 39% to 40% of U.S. electric power.

In June 2026, gas-fired production reached 162 TWh, highlighting its continued role in meeting demand and balancing the renewable output.

Gas has been marketed as a "bridge" fuel for many years. It is still hard to replace in the top gas producing country of the world because it can increase production quickly when demand increases or renewable energy sources fall.

Diagnosis : Although the patient is in better health, it still relies on gas for its primary source of dispatchable energy.

CLOSING PROGNOSIS

The mid-year review shows that the electricity system is undergoing a gradual transformation, rather than a radical revolution.

Clean power has passed important thresholds. Solar has emerged as a real heavyweight. Coal is declining, and emissions continue to fall.

The U.S. grid is becoming less fossil fuel-fueled, and more clean-powered with each passing year.

The opinions expressed are those of the columnist, author. This column is a great read! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)