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Shippers claim that the early surge in US container exports is ending.

According to a study released on Friday, the early season surge in U.S.?container?import volumes, driven by shippers racing against higher?fuel surcharges linked to the U.S. - Israel war with Iran, and 'new U.S. Tariffs, has ended.

According to the?Global Port Tracker Report from the National Retail Federation, maritime consultancy Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation, import volumes at the country's major container port are expected to be high in this month. They will then decline for the remainder of 2026.

Freight forwarders who arrange transportation for their clients backed the report's findings.

Ted Chen, Dimerco Express Group's director of ocean freight, said "the front-loading trend has reached its peak." Temporary global tariffs of 10% that were in effect since February expire on July 23. The next day, a new round of tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5%, covering 60 economies, and affecting 99% of U.S. imports took effect. According to a report, the busiest month of this year is?May. In recent years, the peak container shipping season has moved earlier than usual. This is due to the shippers' experiences managing supply-chain interruptions, ranging from wars and pandemics to rapidly changing U.S. Tariffs.

Jonathan Gold, Vice President of the NRF for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said that retailers, who account for about?half (50%) of U.S. imports by container, are now able to navigate supply-chain shocks.

Gold said that retailers will have a good supply of goods for the upcoming holiday season.

In the next few days, we will have data on container imports for July.

Global Port Tracker expects that August volumes will?fall by 4.2% compared to the previous year to 2.2 millions?20-foot equivalent units in seaports such as Los Angeles/Long Beach and New York/New Jersey. The report predicted a steady drop in imports every month until the end of the year.

Chen, however, predicted that ocean transport costs will remain high.

The cost floor won't move: Fuel and canal surcharges will not fall with demand.

(source: Reuters)