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ROI-US squeeze on Venezuela oil won't create global crunch: Bousso
Although the United States' tightening of its grip on Venezuelan oil exports may have a limited impact on global markets, it could reduce the country's crude production and President Nicolas Maduro’s main economic lifeline. Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard seized a supertanker in mid-ocean that was carrying Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba. This marked a new step in Washington's war against Caracas. The U.S. Military continues to increase its presence in the Caribbean to the highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The U.S. has announced that it is planning to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan oil. Last Thursday, the Washington Post reported that Washington had imposed new sanctions against Maduro, his family, six crude oil tankers, and shipping companies associated with them. The military chokehold over Venezuela is designed to prevent the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil via an expanding "dark Fleet" - unregulated ships that are sanctioned, uninsured and not regulated. They are also heavily used by Russia and Iran. According to an analysis of LSEG's data, there are already at least a dozen crude oil tankers in Venezuela's exclusive maritime economic zone. Many of these are at risk of being seized. CRUDE REALITY Venezuela's oil sector is already feeling the pressure. In September, crude oil exports in the country reached over 1 million barrels a day. This was the highest since February 2019. The reason for this spike is that PDVSA (the state-run oil company) depleted its inventories to prepare for tighter restrictions. Kpler's data shows that Venezuelan crude oil exports will drop to 702,000 barrels per day in December, the lowest level since May. There are indications that Asian buyers will demand deeper discounts on Venezuelan crude in order to compensate for the increasing trading risk. According to the International Energy Agency, tightening of restrictions has also resulted in a decline in Venezuelan crude oil production. It fell by approximately 150,000 bpd from a previous month to 860,000 bpd. This follows several months where production was hovering around 1 million bpd. Exports have declined, so output could continue to decline if exports were restricted as Venezuela's stockpiles fill up. The production of Venezuelan oil could also be severely affected if U.S. import restrictions prevent the import of naphtha, diluents and other products that are essential for extraction and processing. More than two thirds of Venezuelan oil is of a tar-like?grade when it is extracted. The oil is reduced in viscosity by using naphtha. This allows it to be transported through pipelines to terminals and tanks. Venezuela's six refining facilities can produce naphtha, but they have been in disrepair for years. This has led to the upstream oil industry becoming heavily dependent on imports. Kpler reports that the Venezuelan imports for naphtha, chemicals, and other products will drop to 39,000 barrels per day in December. This compares to 54,000 barrels per day in November, and 89,000 in October. However, it is difficult to predict how production will be affected by the naphtha shortage, since Venezuela imported large quantities in recent years, which may have been partially stored. Venezuela's production is at risk if imports of naphtha drop. CARVE-OUT? CARVE-OUT The heavy crude production in Venezuela is not likely to completely stop, despite the increasing tensions. President Donald Trump has granted Chevron, the second largest U.S. producer of oil, a special license to continue operating their joint ventures within Venezuela's Orinoco Belt, which produces around 250,000 barrels per day. Chevron exports approximately 150,000 bpd (billion barrels per day) of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast where refineries built decades ago were designed to process heavy grades imported from Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela. Estimates suggest that Venezuela's oil output could fall by between?300,000.00 and 500,000.00 bpd due to lower exports. The current global oil market is well supplied and faces a glut in the coming year. The production of heavy crude in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico would more than make up for any shortfalls. Installing a U.S. friendly government, which will remove sanctions against Caracas, could result in a rapid recovery of oil production. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, with a total of 303 billion barrels. The increasing tensions in Venezuela have already had a significant impact on its oil industry. However, these effects will not reverberate around the globe - unless the Maduro government falls, which would trigger a rush by western energy giants to return to the oil-rich country. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Security for Hanukkah is stepped up in the world following Bondi Shootings
On Sunday, major cities such as Berlin, London and New York increased security at Hanukkah celebrations following an attack on Sydney's Bondi Beach during a Jewish holiday. Berlin police have said that they are stepping up their measures near the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, where an electric menorah will be 'lit' to mark the first Hanukkah night. A spokesperson told X that "we have planned comprehensive security measures for tonight's Hanukkah at the Brandenburg Gate – in light of events in Sydney, will intensify our efforts and maintain a high police presence there." In New York, Mayor Eric Adams announced on?X, that additional security would be deployed at synagogues and Hanukkah celebrations in New York City. And in Warsaw, the?main Synagogue's Sunday evening event was armed with double the usual amount of protection. We will continue to make sure that the Jewish community is safe, including during public Menorah illuminations in the city. "Let us pray for those injured and stand united against hatred," said Adams. At the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, there will be a prayer offered for those who lost their lives during the Sydney Bondi Beach shootings. The Australian authorities described it as an antisemitic targeted attack. A legacy of the Nazi Holocaust has led Germany to follow a long-standing policy of special responsibility towards Jews and Israel. This is known as Staatsraeson. Berlin is accustomed to strict security measures in synagogues, schools and other Jewish institutions. However, a spokesperson for the police said that these would be heightened during the Hanukkah season. The Metropolitan Police in London also said that they had increased security but refused to provide any details. In a statement, it stated that "there is no information to suggest a link between the Sydney attack and the threat level of London." This morning, the police increased their presence and conducted additional community patrols. They also engaged with the Jewish Community to learn what else they could do in the upcoming hours and days. A spokesperson for Laurent Nunez, France's interior minister, said that he had asked local authorities to increase security around Jewish places during the period between December 14 and 22. Nunez called on increased security, particularly around large gatherings and religious services, especially those that take place in public places, said the spokesperson. Reporting by Friederike Hiene in Berlin, Justyna Pálak in Warsaw and Suban Abdulla, London; Writing by Alexander Smith, Editing by Christina Fincher
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Egypt, Qatar's Al Mana Holding sign $200 million sustainable aviation fuel deal
Egypt's Cabinet announced on Sunday that it had signed a deal with Qatar's Al Mana Holding to invest $200 million in the first phase of a project to produce sustainable aviation fuel from used cooking oils at Ain Sokhna's Economic Zone along the Suez Canal. The project, which will span 100,000 sqm in the Integrated Sokhna Zone along Egypt's Red Sea coast, will be developed over three phases. In a press release, the cabinet stated that the first phase would have an annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 tons. Egypt claimed that the deal marks the first Qatari investment in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. Egypt has been attempting to attract foreign investments for many years, particularly from wealthy Gulf states. This is to help it deal with its heavy debts abroad and a large budget deficit. The Prime Minister Mostafa Mdbouly said that the project "reflects a positive momentum in the relations between Cairo, Doha and the region. This is driven by a shared political will to increase bilateral trade and cooperation through joint investment." The Qatar sovereign wealth fund's real estate arm announced last month that it will invest 29.7 billion dollars To?develop luxury real estate and tourism on Egypt's Mediterranean Coast. This deal was 'the largest Qatari Investment in the Country?since diplomatic ties were restored after a 2017-2021 rift. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain had cut ties, accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism, and being too close to Iran. Doha denied these charges. Reporting by Momen?Atallah, Writing by Hatem Maher, Editing by Peter Graff
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How US freight rail became dirtier than coal-fired power plants
BNSF Railways, a crown jewel of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, claims to be an environmental leader within the U.S. railway industry, with the cleanest fleet of locomotives in North America. In its latest sustainability report, BNSF urges people to "think green" when they see the steel wheels of orange locomotives and freight cars moving along steel rails. The company has the biggest share in an industry with a serious pollution problem. According to government data, U.S. railroads emit more nitrogen oxides, the main component of smog than all of the coal-fired plants combined. U.S. railways produced together about 485,000 tonnes of nitrogen oxides in 2024, compared with 452,000 tonnes emitted by U.S. power plants that burn coal, according to a calculation based on reported annual fuel consumption multiplied the EPA’s 2023 average weighted emission rates. BNSF is the largest freight railroad in the United States. It accounts for a third of that total and will produce 161,500 tonnes of smog causing nitrogen oxide by 2024. "We don't dispute your number. BNSF stated in an email that it is the largest Class I railroad based on volume. Morningstar railroad analyst Greggory Warren believes that BNSF’s position as the largest rail company in the United States, and its profitability will be challenged if a $85 billion merger of Union Pacific with Norfolk Southern is approved by regulators. This would create the U.S.’s first coast-to-coast rail freight operator. Four industry experts agreed that the calculations were fair. Class I railroads produce 80% of all NOx tonnes produced in the industry. Class I refers to six major railroads that generate more than $1 billion annually. BNSF has not reported on its share of the recent NOx emission performance of the rail industry, or the factors that are driving the high levels of pollution. According to the EPA’s Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Tool, railroad locomotive pollution costs the United States $48 billion annually in healthcare costs. It also causes 3,100 premature deaths. Bill Magavern is the policy director for Coalition for Clean Air in California, an organization that promotes public health. He said that the EPA should force railroads to upgrade their fleets. The EPA declined comment on rail pollution specifically for this article, but stated: "The Trump EPA has a commitment to enhancing its ability to provide clean air, land, and water for all Americans." AGGING FREIGHT LOCOS Railroads' poor performance in terms of emissions is mainly due to the fact they have stopped replacing their aging locomotive fleet. According to EPA reports and industry reports, the average age of U.S. trains is 28 years old, compared to 20 years in 2009. This is a problem, because the federal emission?standards are based on the age of the locomotives. The oldest locomotives have the lowest limits. The U.S. rail freight industry has been slow to buy new locomotives because there is no requirement for retiring old ones. This fear of new regulations that could be implemented by future administrations may have exacerbated the situation. Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat Senator, claims that railroads are no longer interested in innovation. Markey stated that the air pollution standards of railroads have a loophole the size of an engine, which is being used by companies to keep dirty, old trains on tracks. Rail industry claims that rail is the most environmentally friendly option to transport freight on land. They cite data from the U.S. Department of Transportation. A locomotive can transport a ton (about 500 miles) of freight on one gallon of gasoline, which is up to three or four times as efficient as trucks. The Association of American Railroads also said that it was unfair to compare rail with?powerplants, saying locomotives had little choice but diesel. The power plants in question have many other options to generate electricity - hydropower, wind, coal, natural gases, etc. The rail industry is different, the trade group said. BNSF has said that it will reduce its emissions by improving efficiency and technology. It also stands behind its claim of having the cleanest fleet based on its number of modern locomotives. BNSF reported that 360 of the 6,780 locomotives it owns are modern locomotives, Tier 4 engines, which meet the strictest federal emission standards. This is the largest number in the entire industry. Surface Transportation Board data shows that only 5% of the total fleet is in use or stored. Analysts and CN press release about new locomotives claim that Canadian National's rival has about 300 Tier 4 engines, which make up 27% of their total fleet. BNSF's closest competitors operate about 270 Tier 4 locomotives at Union Pacific, and about 225 at CSX Corp. EPA data and company press releases, as well as trade industry reports, show that there are about 80 Tier 4 locomotives at Norfolk Southern and 270 at Union Pacific. BNSF spent 394 million dollars on?165 rebuilt and new locomotives between 2020 and 2024. This was a 69% decrease from the previous five years, when the company spent $1.26billion on 558 engines. According to BNSF's annual reports filed to the U.S., the replacement of aging locomotives--some lasting as long as 40 years-slowed down sharply. Surface Transportation Board. CLEANEST FEET? BNSF's large size is not the only reason for its high emissions. According to statistics submitted by the U.S. Department of Transportation, BNSF has the lowest fuel efficiency amongst the six largest railroads in the United States. Surface Transportation Board is the industry's economic regulator. BNSF used 1.14 gallons per ton of weight moved over 1,000 miles in 2024. This industry metric is called a gross-ton mile. Union Pacific used 1.08 gallons of diesel to move the same amount of weight over the same distance. The most efficient railroad, Canadian National, consumed 0.88 gallons. According to railroad industry analysts interviewed, BNSF's fuel efficiency is low because it transports more intermodal cargo than its peers. The high-priority containers must move faster than normal freight, as they are usually more time-sensitive. This is according to Jason Kuehn a vice president and railroad analyst at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman. BNSF will ship 5.3 million intermodal shipments in 2024. This is nearly 60% more than the No. According to the company's disclosures, Union Pacific is ranked No. 2. Analysts say BNSF is likely to be less efficient due to its limited use of precision-scheduled railing. This industry practice aims at reducing fuel consumption and costs by using longer trains, fewer engines, and a shorter idle time. Fuel efficiency is also affected by mountainous terrain, and the congestion of a railroad network. BNSF refused to comment on why it has a relatively low fuel efficiency, but maintained that it was an environmental leader 'in the industry based upon its adoption of the new locomotives which allows it to burn fuel cleaner. The company said that it had the "cleanest fleet" of locomotives and platform locomotives. It refused to give details about its fleet-wide emission intensity and could not verify whether it was better than competitors. According to the EPA, Tier 4 locomotives reduce NOx by up to 80% compared with Tier 3 models. Fear of Regulation Railroads have stopped investing in new locomotives because of new regulations, including zero-emissions standard proposed by California. They are concerned that these new rules could make them obsolete. Roger Nober, former chief legal officer of BNSF and director of George Washington University’s Regulatory Studies Center, said: "These locomotives are 40-45 years old, but you say they won't be able use them because we will have zero emissions." "Railroads do not see this as an efficient use for their capital." In 2008, EPA hoped that it could clean up the freight rail industry by setting higher standards for new locomotives. These standards included new Tier 3 models and Tier 4 models. Rail companies have slowed their purchase of new locomotives in order to encourage the replacement of older locomotives. The EPA predicted in 2008 that by 2025, at least 30 percent of freight locomotives will be operating within the most stringent limits. According to the EPA, only 6.5% out of 19,303 locomotives that are currently active and operated by the six major railroads will meet this limit in 2023. According to the U.S. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, American railroads had replaced their locomotives annually at a rate of 4% before 2008. By 2024 the replacement rate for the railroad industry had fallen to 0.5% annually. Neither BNSF, nor its competitors provide precise data about the model year of?active locomotives within their national fleets. The industry's biggest battle has been against California's proposed emission standard. This would have prohibited locomotives older than 22 years from operating within the state and required that all locomotives be zero-emissions in 2035. California, with its large market size, can set a standard for the nation. According to officials at the California Air Resources Board, the stricter regulations would reduce 7,400 tons diesel soot and 386,000 tons NOx by 2050. They also estimate that the cancer risk of those who live near rail operations could be reduced by 90%. Rail officials claim that the bill would also have prohibited 65% of freight locomotives in operation from operating within the state. California retracted the proposal a week before Donald Trump was inaugurated as U.S. President in January. Trump is a frequent critic and would be expected to block this initiative by refusing California the waiver needed to establish state pollution regulations that are stricter than federal ones. House Republicans introduced in May the Locomotives Act. This would prevent California from receiving such waivers. The bill was referred to Energy and Commerce Committee. FIGHTING GREEN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Rail industry lobbyists have also been very active in opposing the adoption of new technologies. BNSF informed the EPA at a public meeting last year that its test of a battery electric locomotive did not deliver enough power to transport tons of freight across long distances. John Lovenburg said that the battery contained two megawatts usable energy. This is about 1/40th the energy needed for locomotives that haul line-haul freight. Alex Scott, professor of supply-chain management at the University of Tennessee, says that electric locomotives can be used for short routes, replacing diesel locomotives, and in switch yards. However, for longer distances, they are limited by their battery weight. In the United States, and in other parts of world, battery-electric locomotives do not exist. In China, India, and Russia the majority of freight locomotives are powered by overhead electric lines or catenary system. According to an Association of American Railroads study from February 2025, electrifying 139,000 miles of track by six major railroads in North America could cost over $1.1 trillion. Scott explained that the railroad industry was slow to adapt new technologies because, if there are problems, they're not only yours. You're creating issues for your customers as well as other railroads, because they all share the same track.
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United Airlines returns flight due to engine failure
The Federal Aviation Administration reported that a United Airlines flight bound for Tokyo had to'return' to Dulles International Airport, in northern Virginia, on Saturday afternoon due an engine failure. United's spokesperson stated that the flight landed soon after takeoff because of the loss of power in one engine. The spokesperson reported that there were no injuries among the 275 passengers on board and the 15 crew. Social media X posted photos and videos of smoke?billowing near the runway. Dulles is the nearest international airport to Washington, D.C., located approximately 25 miles (40 kilometers) away. The FAA announced that it would investigate the incident that occurred on United Flight 803, involving a Boeing 777 200 aircraft. Sean Duffy, Secretary of Transportation, posted on X that a piece of the plane’s engine cover had separated and caught fire. This caused a brushfire on the ground. Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority confirmed that the fire had been extinguished. A spokesperson for United said that the flight will be rescheduled to later Saturday, on a different plane.
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US: Belarus has agreed to stop balloon flights into Lithuania
John Coale, the envoy of U.S. president Donald Trump to Belarus, said that President Alexander Lukashenka had promised not to allow 'weather balloons' from his country to fly into Lithuania. Coale said in Vilnius after two days of discussions with Lukashenko, "He agreed to do everything that he can to stop the balloons." In the last few months, balloons?used by cigarette-smugglers? have forced over a dozen airport closures in Vilnius. Lithuania accused Belarus of facilitating smuggling and declared a state if emergency, asking the parliament to authorize military support to?police officers and border guards in order to combat the smugglers. Lukashenko stated on Tuesday that Lithuania is exaggerating its problem. "I think that the president is trying his best to calm things down. It will take time, but it is possible to resolve. Coale said that he wants a normal relationship with his neighbors, so he "assures" him. "I know Lithuania did everything they could to stop the recipients of the cigarettes, or whatever it was. "I think both sides are working", he said. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that on December 1, the situation along the border had worsened. She called the balloon incursions by Belarus a hybrid attack that was "completely inacceptable". (Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius. Justyn Pawlak, Mark Potter and Justyn Pawlak edited the article.
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Ukraine says Russian drone attack hit civilian Turkish vessel
Ukraine's Navy accused?Russia on Saturday of attacking a civilian Turkish vessel carrying sunflower oil to Egypt with a drone, just a day after Moscow attacked two Ukrainian ports. The navy released a statement via Telegram stating that the vessel was named the Viva, and it had 11 'Turkish Citizens on board. The navy added that no one was injured and the vessel continued its journey towards?Egypt. The statement accused Russia of violating maritime law. "The strike took place 'in the open sea in Ukraine’s exclusive economic zones, outside of the range of Ukrainian aircraft defence systems," it said. The Navy said that it was in contact with Captain of the ship. According to Ukraine's Navy, on Friday, Russia attacked two Ukrainian ports and damaged three Turkish-owned ships. One of these ships caught fire. The attacks come after Moscow had threatened to "cut Ukraine from the sea" following Kyiv's attacks that damaged three tankers of Kyiv's'shadow fleet,' which were heading to Russia for its oil export. Max Hunder reported the story. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Spanish police arrest a drug gang using helicopters to fly drugs out of Morocco
Spanish police announced on Saturday that they had busted a criminal group using helicopters to smuggle Moroccan hashish in "a rare operation" against aerial drug trafficking. The Civil 'Guard spokesperson Gonzalo López said that the 'helicopters could carry up to 900 kg (1,100-2,050 pounds) of hashish, and then transport it by road into other parts of Europe. During raids conducted in the provinces Malaga, Almeria, and Murcia, police seized a helicopter, 657 kg hashish and five firearms. They also seized cash and vehicles. Six people were arrested in the operation that also included Moroccan, Belgian, and Swedish law enforcement agencies. It is rare that criminal gangs use helicopters to smuggle illegal drugs, but they do it occasionally. Police?sources said that helicopters were easy to detect, and difficult to purchase on the blackmarket. In the first half of this year, Spanish Police dismantled criminal groups who used drones for drug transport from Morocco to Spain. Spain's geographical position makes it an important?entry?point for hashish, mostly from Morocco, into Europe and cocaine, smuggled mainly from Latin America. Hashish is smuggled mainly by sea. Sometimes, it's done using jet-skis or high-speed launches. Six suspects were remanded on suspicion of drug trafficking and belonging to criminal organisations. They also possessed firearms. The Civil Guard has not stated when the operation called Giro took place. Reporting by Graham Keeley. Mark Potter edited the story.
Kazakhstan resumes transit through Uzbekistan and increases oil supply to Kyrgyzstan
Kaztransoil, a pipeline company, said that Kazakhstan increased oil deliveries to Kyrgyzstan in December and resumed oil transit through Uzbekistan.
Kaztransoil will supply Kyrgyzstan with up to 30,000 tons of oil by the end of 2025. The company has announced that oil shipments to Uzbekistan will be made in December of this year, with a total volume up to 35,000 tons.
Kaztransoil stated that all oil transportation routes are carried out via the trunk oil pipe system, to the 'Shagyr loading terminal where the oil is?loaded into railway tank cars.
Kazakhstan is seeking 'alternative routes' for oil exports after a drone damaged one of its moorings at the 'Black sea terminal of Caspian Pipeline Consortium. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge; Mariya Goreyeva)
(source: Reuters)