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While Trump praises Gulf oil flow, Iran's Fleet is also gearing up for increased exports
Iran is also preparing to resume its exports and trade. This comes as U.S. president Donald Trump recently welcomed the return of oil from Gulf allies. Shipping data shows that at least three tankers, each carrying?some 5 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, have passed through the U.S. Naval Blockade in the past week. This is despite the U.S. Military saying it will continue its operations to block Iran-linked ships until Friday. The oil market is focused on the deal that Trump announced on 14 June and which will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Trump posted on Sunday,?Sunday, that the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran was now completed. Start your engines, Ships of the World! "Let the oil flow!" Iran's deputy Foreign Minister said that a more comprehensive agreement would be discussed during a period of 60 days ceasefire. The gap between the announcement of the agreement and its expected signing on 19 June gives both sides the opportunity to issue conflicting statements about the agreement, said Torbjorn Sltvedt principal Middle East Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk. Ship-tracking data from Kpler & Vortexa revealed that the Hero II & Diona, two very large crude carriers each carrying 2,000,000 barrels of oil, had passed through the Gulf of Oman and were heading to Asia. Kpler data, Vortexa data, and LSEG's data show that the Sonia I with 1 million barrels has also cleared the blockade. It is now heading towards Singapore. According to Kpler data and LSEG, the Herby supertanker, which is partially laden with Iranian cargo, was close behind the empty VLCC Stream. The signal has been sent and the ships are repositioning themselves in anticipation of the lifting of the U.S. Blockade. Charlie Brown, senior adviser at UANI, a U.S. advocacy organization that monitors Iran's tanker traffic, said: "Clearly, a reboot of the system is underway." The U.S. Central Command did not respond immediately to a question about the movements of Iranian-linked tankers on Wednesday. UANI's analysis revealed that other vessels were also in motion. Five dry bulk and container ship flagged with the Iranian flag, which had been anchored for weeks off Malaysian coast, are now sailing towards Iran. IRAN EXPORTS ARE AT A SIX-YEAR?LOW Kpler data show that the U.S. Blockade in May sent Iranian crude oil exports to their lowest levels in six years, at 260,000 barrels a day. This is a fraction of the average 2025?of 1,67 million bpd. A senior U.S. government official stated on Tuesday that the memorandum o' understanding, announced by Trump on Thursday and scheduled to be signed this Friday, calls on the U.S. for it to allow Iran to begin selling fuel?and oil immediately. Benchmark Brent crude futures are already down, falling below $80 a barrel this week from highs of $120 per barrel. This is due to the prospect of a return in Gulf supply. This drop in prices could lead to a return of demand from China, Iran's largest buyer. China has been lukewarm due to high prices. Sources in the industry said that companies will wait until there is more clarity about the opening of "the strait" before they resume voyages. Kpler's analysis shows that 118 tankers with cargoes of other Gulf producers are still stuck in the Gulf. Intermodal, a shipbroker based in Greece, said this week that despite a formal agreement to reopen the Strait of Gibraltar, safe passage still needs to be demonstrated in practice. Reporting by Florence Tan and Siyi Liu; editing by Kate Mayberry, Jason Neely, and Jonathan Saul.
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Qantas chooses London as the first non-stop flight to break Qantas' record
Qantas Airways announced on Wednesday that?London was the first destination of the world's largest direct commercial flight. The trip is roughly 20 hours from Sydney, eliminating the?traditional halt on the "Kangaroo Route". Vanessa Hudson, the CEO of Australian carrier, told an audience in Toulouse, France that they plan to start selling tickets by February, and launch flights in October 2027. The airline is part of "Project Sunrise", which will serve New York in the future using modified Airbus A350 1000ULR jets that can fly up to 22-hours with 238 passengers aboard. The announcement is part a fleet revamp that began in 2017, when Qantas challenged Airbus to develop planes capable for ultra-long haul non-stop routes out of Australia. Hudson, who unveiled the first Airbus plane in bright sunshine without its Rolls-Royce XWB-97 engine because it was still in its early testing stages, said: "Australia's separation from the rest should not stand in the way." It is hoped to reduce the five-day journey on the Kangaroo Route to London from around 19 to 21 hrs, depending on wind direction and routing. Qantas plans to use polar routes around a quarter of time, particularly during winter in the northern hemisphere. The journey now takes between 24 and 25 hours, via Singapore. Qantas is taking a big risk with this project, which involves billions in aircraft upgrades, research on passenger health and a re-design of the cabin. It must be able to convince passengers to pay more in order to avoid long layovers while minimizing the discomfort of long flights. John Strickland, aviation analyst, said: "What they're selling is time. They need to charge a premium for all cabins, especially premium economy and business." Qantas named Project Sunrise in honor of its double sunrise endurance flight during World War Two. The airline remained airborne for long enough to witness two sunrises. The airline estimates that the project will add A$400,000,000 ($283,000,000) to its earnings every year. Hudson stated in February that this was based on ticket prices being around 20% higher in premium cabins than other one-stop options. Analysts say that high energy prices due to the Gulf conflict has raised the threshold for achieving break-even. 'POSITIVE MARKET' In an April note, Jefferies analysts predicted that after the initial U.S. Iran ceasefire and before this week's peace agreement, passengers would continue to prefer direct routes to Europe via Perth. They also said they expected Middle Eastern hubs to shift to Asian hubs through 2027. They said: "We expect Project Sunrise flights from London to have a good market." Gulf carriers like Emirates, who re-drew the aviation map around their hubs are expected to defend their share of the market. Australia lifted its "do-not-travel" warning against Gulf hubs, which had been in place for months. This had invalidated many travel insurance policies, even those of transit passengers. Airbus won Project Sunrise?order in 2019, after a fierce battle with Boeing's 787X. Airbus conducted the first test flight of one of 12 modified A350 1000ULR aircraft ordered by Qantas earlier this month. The planes with 238 seats have an additional rear-centre tank that helps to increase range from 1,000 nautical miles (1.852 km) up to 10,000 nautical mile. Flights are so long that fuel is used to carry the weight. Due to COVID-19 and the supply chain delays, the?first aircraft will be delivered in April 2027. This is about five years after originally anticipated. Reports this month stated that Qantas was in discussions to purchase 20 additional wide-body jets, including the smaller A350 900 or Boeing 787s.
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Sources say that Russia will import gasoline via sea due to a shortage.
Four industry sources have confirmed that 'Russia will import fuel this month by sea as it seeks to manage its 'gasoline shortage after extensive drone attacks on 'its refineries. Sources said that in a move rare for one of the largest oil exporters and refiners of refined products in the world, Russia will receive a shipment of gasoline through one of its western port's in June. One source said that it would be shipped out of Asia without giving any details about volumes or suppliers. Another source said that Russia considered importing gasoline by sea last year but the domestic supply was enough. The Ukrainians have been launching drone attacks against Russian refineries, pipelines, and fuel storage facilities to try to limit Moscow's ability for financing its?war effort. This has resulted in a reduction of supplies. Recent attacks on the TANECO and Moscow refineries led to the suspension of processing in both plants. Exports are banned ahead of peak driving season According to data collected by, the media has reported fuel shortages in Russia in a dozen different regions. The Russian-held Crimea, and two regions of Siberia, have confirmed the shortages. The government has announced that gasoline producers will be prohibited from exporting the fuel until July 31st. This is to ensure sufficient supplies during the summer when demand for driving is at its highest. Moscow also imports?fuel from Belarus and in the past has sought?small quantities from Kazakhstan to meet shortages. Sources said that neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan has enough spare capacity to help Russia in case of a more serious supply crisis. One of them stated that seaborne imports were only temporary and unlikely to produce significant volumes due to logistical problems and high prices. Sources asked to remain anonymous because they weren't authorised to speak publicly about the matter. The Russian?Energy Ministry didn't respond to a comment request. According to industry sources the country exported approximately 117,000 barrels of gasoline per day last year. Barbara Lewis, Barbara Lewis (reporter)
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Taiwan claims its delegates were barred from Ocean Conference in Kenya
Taiwan's government claimed that Kenya had banned delegates from Taiwan from attending an international conference in East Africa on oceans. This was due to pressure from China. China considers?democratically-governed?Taiwan to be?its territory and objects to any treatment of Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taiwan's government has rejected Beijing's claims of sovereignty. In a statement posted on X, Tuesday, the 'Ocean Affairs Council', a Taiwan government agency said that visas were revoked for Taiwanese researchers at the last moment. Participants had their passports seized and phones confiscated. Kenyan officials from the foreign ministry and event organizers have not responded to requests for comments. Lin Chia-lung (Taiwan's Foreign Minister) told reporters in Taipei that Kenyan authorities had insisted on distorting "their" so-called interpretation "One China", expanding it to the point where they prevented our people from attending. "This is a grave injustice and we strongly protest against it." The OAC statement condemned "barbaric obstructions" that prevented their?scientists? from participating in the "Our Ocean Conference 2026"?in the kenyan port of Mombasa. China's Foreign Ministry said that the "One China principle", was the fundamental norm of international relations. In a separate statement, China said that Kenya was highly regarded for its resolute adherence to the One China Principle. The Our Ocean conference brings together scientists, governments and civil society to discuss ocean protection and sustainable use. Reporting by Vincent Mumo Nzilani, Ben Blanchard and Elias Biryabarema; Editing and Gareth Jones.
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IEA: UAE's post OPEC expansion drive to raise oil production above 5 million bpd in next year
The International Energy Agency reported on Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates could have a production of more than 5 million?bpd in 2015 as it moves to increase its output after?its 'exit from OPEC. This would make it a major contributor to non-OPEC+ growth. The UAE announced its decision to exit OPEC earlier this year. It was made in order to prioritise production capacity expansion, maximise the value of their resources and free output from the 'constraints' of the group quotas. The IEA has forecast that the total oil production in 2027 will reach 5.2 millions barrels per day, an increase of 730,000 bpd on a year-on-year basis. The IEA reported that the UAE's crude production capacity increased from?3.1m bpd to nearly 4.4m bpd between 2016 and 2026. This expansion was accompanied by a 1.1m bpd increase in condensate, natural?gas liquids, and other products. ADNOC HAS?COMMITTED $55 BIILLION TO PROJECTS FOR GROWTH? Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced last month that it would award 200 billion dirhams (55 billion dollars) in projects between 2026-2028, to accelerate its growth and achieve its strategy. The company plans to invest $150 billion between 2026-2030. Suhail al-Mazrouei, UAE Energy Minister, has said that the country can increase oil production to?6m bpd depending on market conditions. However he stressed that this was not an official goal. The IEA said that exports have remained resilient despite disruptions caused by the Iran 'war. Infrastructure such as the 1.8m bpd Habshan to Fujairah pipe and the 42 mb of storage in Fujairah has supported this. The agency reported that shipments rose in May. Total exports increased by 260,000 bpd from one month to the next, to 3.1m bpd. Crude production climbed to 2.8m bpd. This is still about 835, 000 bpd less than pre-conflict. IEA stated that the increase in 'dark activity' was a result of 'tankers' increasing their journeys along Omani coast?while turning off their transponders. ADNOC stated that it is fast-tracking the construction of a new West East pipeline in order to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and double Fujairah's export capacity. The project has already been completed at about 50% and the delivery date for the pipeline is 2027. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Ahmad Ghaddar)
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There are some flights to the Middle East that have resumed but there is still disruption.
Some airlines have resumed flights to certain parts of the Middle East, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict that followed the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran gain momentum. However, many carriers continue to suspend flights, causing global travel disruptions. The following is a list of the current status of flights by alphabetical order. AEGEAN AIRLINES Thessaloniki-Tel Aviv flights were cancelled by Greece's largest airline until June 26. Dubai flights are cancelled until August 31. Erbil and Baghdad flights until September 30. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has canceled flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai until the 28th of June. AIR CANADA Canadian Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai and Abu Dhabi until October 24. AIR EUROPA Spanish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv up until the 28th of June. Air France-KLM Air France suspended flights to Tel Aviv until June 23. Flights to Beirut will be suspended until June 24, and flights to Dubai until the 30th of June. KLM has suspended flights from Riyadh to Dammam, Dubai and Dammam until August 9. CATHAY PACIFIC Hong Kong Airlines has suspended its flights to Dubai and Riyadh through August 31. The U.S. carrier suspended service for the Atlanta-Tel Aviv routes through December 18, 2018. The airline plans to resume New York-JFK-to-Tel Aviv flights starting September 6. However, the launch of Boston-Tel Aviv, originally planned for October, will be delayed until further notice. FINNAIR It has cancelled its Doha flights up to October 2 and continues to avoid the airspaces of Iraq, Iran Syria, and Israel. The airline will resume its Dubai flights in October, which are only operated during the winter. British Airways, owned by IAG, has delayed the resumption?of its flights from Doha to Riyadh and until August 8th. Flights from Amman, Dubai, Tel Aviv and Bahrain are on hold until the end the summer season. They will resume in October. When it resumes, the airline plans to reduce its services to Dubai and Doha to just one flight per day, and to drop Jeddah from the list of destinations. JAPAN AIRLINES Japan Airlines has suspended its scheduled Tokyo-Doha and Doha-Tokyo flight until August 1, as well as Doha-Tokyo until July 31. Polish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Riyadh and Beirut until 30 June. LOT will begin operating its winter route from Dubai in October. LUFTHANSA GROUP Lufthansa has announced that it will resume Tel Aviv flights as soon as July 1, whereas ITA Airways confirmed they would begin on July 1. SWISS delayed the return of flights to August, while Brussels Airlines suspended its operations until October 24. The suspension of Dubai flights by Lufthansa SWISS and ITA Airways continues until September 13th. Lufthansa has suspended all flights to Abu?Dhabi until October 24, as have SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, Beirut Airlines, Dammam Airlines, Riyadh Airlines, Erbil Airlines, Muscat Airlines, and Tehran Airlines. Eurowings, a low-cost carrier, has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv and Erbil from June 30 to July 9 and Dubai Abu Dhabi and Amman till October 24. ITA Airways also extended its suspension of flights to Riyadh through July 31. MALAYSIA AIRLINES From July 2, the Malaysian airline will resume limited service to Doha. NORWEGIAN AIR Low-cost carrier has delayed the launch of Tel Aviv and Beirut indefinitely and no new start date has been set. ROYAL MAROC Moroccan airline announced that flights to Doha have been cancelled until 30 June. SINGAPORE Airlines In order to?meet increased demand, the carrier has extended its Singapore-Dubai suspension until August 2. It also added services on Singapore-London Gatwick?and Singapore -Melbourne routes between late March and October 24. TURKISH AIRLINES SunExpress, Turkish Airlines joint venture with Lufthansa has?cancelled' flights to Dubai, Bahrain, Beirut, and Erbil, until July 14. WIZZ AIR Low-cost airlines have suspended flights from Europe to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman until mid-September. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed. Elviira Lioma, Tiago Branao, Agnieszka Olesska, Bernadette HOG, Alexander Klyve Gudbrandsen, Romolo TOSIANI, Boleslaw LaSocki). Matt Scuffham and Alexander Smith edited by Susan Fenton, Milla Nissi-Prussak Jonathan Ananda Joe Bavier, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heaven, Bernadette Hogg, Romolo Tosiani.
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Sources say that Russian oil exports to western ports were higher than expected at the beginning of June.
The Russian crude oil exports were higher than expected in early June as drone attacks on refineries released a large amount of extra volumes for shipping, according to trade sources and port sources. Russia planned to reduce its crude oil exports to cover fuel shortages and boost refinery runs in June, but was unable to do so because Ukraine intensified its drone campaign, which targeted major?facilities such as the TANECO complex and the Moscow refining facility. According to three sources who are familiar with port operations, the average daily loadings of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and in the Baltic ports of Russia were 2.3 million barrels. This compares to around 1.7m bpd, which was a preliminary estimate for the entire month. The average daily export rate of the three western?key outlets -- Primorsk Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk — is roughly 35% higher than the monthly total planned in the first half of June. Sources said that despite the rise, exports remain below the?May level of about 2.5 million barrels per day. The sources said that the full-month numbers?could approach May levels in case there are more refinery 'outages due to unplanned maintenance. The traders also stated that the attacks on 'Russian port infrastructure' could reduce export volumes later this month. On Telegram, Mayor Andrei Kravchenko reported that drones attacked Novorossiysk on Wednesday. (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).
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The Hormuz gas shock did not break Europe's market. Martin Vladimirov, Borbala Toth and the time might
The?market for natural gas in Europe has, at least thus far, passed the Hormuz test. The U.S. and Iran peace agreement suggests that the worst shock is over, even though flows may only recover gradually. This should calm supply concerns and focus attention on the pressures that will shape the market over the next few decades. As a result of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to nearly all trade in liquefied gas. This pushed gas prices in Asia and Europe sharply higher. Although the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be reopened under 'the deal,' tanker operators warn that transit could take several weeks, and LNG producer QatarEnergy reported that Iranian attacks had wiped out up to 17% its capacity over a period of five years. Since the beginning of the conflict, on February 28, the average European price per megawatt-hour (MWh) has risen by approximately 10 euros or 31%. The gas bill of the 27 countries in the European Union has risen by 48% during this crisis. The shock of the gas crisis has not shaken Europe's market. The European gas market was able to plug the hole created by Hormuz with abundant U.S. supplies and higher volumes from Algeria and Nigeria. The system is not fragmented in to competing zones. No major infrastructure bottlenecks occurred, and the price increases were roughly equal in all member states. Pipelines, terminals for LNG and interconnectors have helped maintain market stability under extreme stress. It does not mean that the shock was without pain, of course. According to preliminary LSEG figures, Russian LNG imports increased by roughly 17% between January and May, even though Europe is seeking to cut energy ties with Moscow because of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Overall, Europe's system of gas supply proved resilient, even when compared to the magnitude of the shock. It also appears capable of taking on more. We simulated a shock that was more severe, combining an Hormuz style disruption with a complete ban on Russian gas. This scenario would see European gas prices rise only by 0.4-0.8 euro per MWh for Western Europe, and 1.1-1.4% in Central and Eastern Europe. That's about 7% more than the increase since Hormuz ended. The modest increase is due to Europe's ability, through new LNG regasification facilities in the Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea and Aegean seas, to replace most Russian volumes. The CEE region's expanded interconnector infrastructure and some reductions in demand helped to limit supply bottlenecks. It seems that the fears of future supply shortages on the continent, especially among those who oppose the complete phaseout Russian gas, may be exaggerated. Demand is the greater risk, with a much bleaker outlook. Demand destruction is expected to occur in Europe over the next few decades. This is the conclusion of the 'joint modeling assessment' recently completed by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research. The EU's energy outlook for 2040 was assessed under three scenarios - current trends, rapid carbonisation and greater reliance upon gas as a transition fuel. Unsurprisingly, the slope of the curve is dependent on global gas prices. We expect European wholesale prices to average around 25 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) - approximately 50% lower than the Iran shock levels. This is supported by an abundant global LNG supply. Gas-fired power plants would still be competitive at those prices. Coal would be phased-out faster and industrial users would continue to use gas as they waited for low-carbon alternatives. We estimate that the total EU gas consumption will still drop by 30% between 2030 and 2040 to 2,700 Terawatt-hours per year. This is due to efficiency gains in residential sectors, as well as rapid electrification of industrial segments, where electricity would likely replace natural gas for heating. If current trends are maintained, the average European gas price would be closer to 35 Euros. Gas will likely continue to?play a significant role in the balancing of power markets. Its economics will likely become less attractive for buildings and industries, where the higher prices would increase incentives to electrify. The annual gas consumption will fall to 2,300 TWh. In the scenario of accelerated decarbonisation, tighter global LNG markets coupled with geopolitical disruptions will push gas prices to 65 euros. Gas consumption is expected to fall rapidly in almost all sectors at these levels and reach around 1,700 TWh, roughly half of the demand level predicted by the most optimistic scenario. In such an environment, it is likely that power systems would rely more on renewables, new nuclear plants, and batteries, while electric heating in buildings will become the norm. The European industry will also be under increasing pressure to reduce consumption, electrify wherever possible, and improve efficiency. CONCENTRATED SUPPLY Europe's options on the supply side may be limited in time. Qatar, the second largest LNG exporter in the world, is likely to direct a greater share of its LNG sales towards Asian buyers due to the rapidly rising energy demands of the region. In all of our scenarios, U.S. LNG will dominate the European LNG market. U.S. volumes currently account for around 60% of all European LNG imports. We expect this share to reach 80% in 2030 if Europe completely phases out Russian gas. Our high-price scenario seems more realistic as a result of this dependency, along with the increased risk from a fragmented market. These are just scenarios based on assumptions which may or may not come true. These findings, however, challenge a widely held assumption in Europe's debate on energy: that gas could be used as a cheap transitional fuel over decades. LNG prices may remain high due to global competition and geopolitical disruptions. This could accelerate Europe's move away from gas, regardless of its policy goals. The gas story in Europe may be defined by gradual erosion, rather than a sudden collapse. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Kyiv denies that Russia has attacked a school bus with children on board.
Russia has accused Ukraine of a drone attack that killed Belarusian children on a school bus Wednesday. Ukraine's military denies this accusation.
Yegor Kovalchuk is the acting governor of the Bryansk region in?Russia, bordering?Ukraine. He said the bus was carrying a Belarusian children's soccer squad on a vacation to southern Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the attack a "monstrous crime" and said that a woman who was accompanying the children died. Eight others, including six kids, were also injured.
The Ukrainian General Staff denied the Russian claim, saying via Telegram that the "Defence?Forces in Ukraine" did not use unmanned aerial vehicles to attack targets in Bryansk Oblast during the specified time period.
I was unable to verify the report. Both sides deny targeting civilians.
Kovalchuk posted images online showing a silver school bus with its windows blown, its right front tyre damaged, and what appeared to be bloodstains on its interior seats.
The Russian authorities opened an investigation into terrorism and found that the bus was carrying 44 passengers including 28 children. It was traveling from Gomel, Belarus, to Gelendzhik, Russia.
Russia has accused Ukraine of a drone attack this month on a bus that it says killed eight civilians in eastern Ukraine in the Donetsk Region under Russian control.
Since the beginning of its war with Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has regularly attacked Ukrainian towns and cities such as Kyiv. Kyiv increased drone strikes against Russia in recent months in an effort to weaken Moscow's economy and bring an end to the war that has killed thousands of Ukrainians. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn, Kyiv buro)
(source: Reuters)