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Fuel price spikes threaten travel demand, causing airlines to face a dilemma regarding fares
The sudden rise in oil prices has forced global airlines to increase fares and reduce capacity. However, the industry's ability remain profitable depends on whether consumers decide to cut back on their flying because gasoline costs are threatening household budgets. The airline industry forecast'record profits' of $41 billion by 2026 before the U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran started last month. However, a doubling of jet?fuel costs has put that in doubt and forced carriers to rethink networks and strategies. United Airlines, Air New Zealand, and Scandinavian SAS all announced fare increases and capacity reductions. Others imposed fuel surcharges. Rigas Doganis said that airlines face an existential threat. He was the former head of Greece's Olympic Airways, and a director at Britain's easyJet. They will have to reduce fares in order to stimulate a weakening market, while the higher cost of fuel will force them to raise fares. "A perfect storm", said Doganis who is now the chairman of London-based consultancy Airline Management Group. Record Passenger Traffic The?industry last year reported record global passenger traffic, which rebounded about 9% over pre-pandemic numbers despite persistent supply-chain issues that affected the deliveries of new aircraft. The record post-pandemic travel demand and persistent supply chain challenges had constrained capacity and given airlines considerable pricing power, as they filled more plane seats. The scale of the increase needed to compensate for the surge in jet fuel prices is enormous at a time when the consumer's discretionary spending could be curtailed by higher gasoline costs. Andrew Lobbenberg, Barclays head of European Transport Equity Research, said that the only way to increase prices is to reduce capacity. "I would expect that to happen this time and in previous crises, people have just to start cutting capacity." HIGHER TICKET PRICES United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said to ABC News that the airline would need to raise fares by 20% to cover higher fuel costs. Cathay Pacific Airways in Hong Kong has reduced fuel surcharges on two occasions over the past month. A return flight from Sydney to London from Wednesday will incur a fuel surcharge of $800. Prior to the Iran conflict, the normal round-trip economy class fare for the route was approximately A$2,000 (1,369.60). Analysts say that low-cost carriers may struggle most because their customers are more price sensitive than corporate clients and wealthy consumers, who are increasingly being targeted by premium competitors like Delta Air Lines or United Airlines. Nathan Gee, Bank of America’s Asia-Pacific Transport Research Head, said: "I believe that for more price-sensitive travelers, even short-haul flights are downgraded to rail, bus, or other alternatives." OIL SHOCKS The Middle East conflict has been the fourth oil crisis for the airline industry, but the first time that carriers such as Vietnam Airlines are concerned about the physical supply of fuel because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. One was in 2007-2008, before the global economic crisis slowed demand. Another followed the Arab Spring in 2011, and the third came after the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. Between 2008 and 2014, a series of mergers like Delta-Northwest or American Airlines-US Airways reduced the number of major U.S. carriers to four. Low-cost carriers like IndiGo and Ryanair relied on single-aircraft aircraft fleets and quick turnarounds to maintain low unit costs. It is obvious that carriers can reduce costs by replacing older, more fuel-inefficient planes with newer, more fuel-efficient ones. However, a severe shortage of supply chain in the aftermath of the pandemic, and problems with the latest engines has delayed deliveries. While U.S. low-cost carriers are equipped with some of the most modern and fuel-efficient aircraft in the industry, the cost of these planes could be a barrier to profitability if demand for travel falls. Dan Taylor, the head of consulting at aviation advisory firm IBA said that the current oil crisis was expected to "widen the gap" between financially strong airlines and those with weaker finances. He said that carriers with strong balance sheets, pricing power and reliable access capital were better positioned to withstand ongoing pressures. "Airlines with low profitability or limited funding options could face increased financial pressure."
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New York Times Business News - March 30,
These are the top stories from the business pages of the New York Times. These'stories' have not been verified and we cannot vouch for the accuracy of these stories. In an effort to ease the de facto blockade Washington imposed on Cuba, the United States has allowed a Russian oil tanker to arrive in Cuba. Jonathan Greenberger is the next global editor-in-chief of Politico. Tom Homan, Trump's top border official, said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents may remain at U.S. Airports even after they are paid again. This is because the shutdown of Homeland Security has caused a shortage of security personnel. (Compiled by Bengaluru newsroom) - A few hundred U.S. Special Operations forces are now in the Middle East. They join thousands of Marines and Army paratroopers on a deployment that is meant to give President Trump more options for expanding the war against Iran, which has been ongoing for a month. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Maguire: Key tools for tracking the latest energy sector disruptions caused by the Iran war
Energy traders and investors who had hoped for a quick resolution to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran were disappointed. As the conflict enters its second month, they must prepare for more potential disruptions in energy flows as well as market fluctuations. Energy market trackers need to look beyond the latest "social" media missives and use professional analytical tools which provide real-time insight into the key energy and shipping industries around the world. Here is a list of key resources and tools that energy analysts and traders are using to manage risks and seize opportunities arising from the aftermath of the conflict. Map Tracking Analysts who want to keep up with the latest developments in the Middle East can use mapping software to show the locations of vessels and key energy infrastructure that has been affected by the conflict. Market data tools like LSEG Workspace give traders a current view of the global fleet of energy vessels, including the vessel clusters within and around Strait of Hormuz. News feeds and other information services are also used to update the mapping software with the most recent status of the energy and port infrastructure in the region. Here you can find the latest information on the Iran conflict. MARKET MOMENTUM LSEG, and other data platforms, provide traders and analysts with the latest vessel?charter rate data, in addition to maps that track the location of energy ships. There are also data on the refining margins in major consumer markets. These show how much profit or loss refiners can make with specific grades of crude oils. Export volumes for different energy products, such as crude oil, condensate, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, can also be measured to gauge where the loadings are growing or contracting. LSEG's news service, which is staffed by reporters who cover energy markets around the globe, publishes analysis and news about the Iran conflict on all major economies. Market trackers can also benefit from data on U.S. gas prices, information about changes in refinery purchases in Asia and analyses of the efforts to reroute energy cargos. WIDER LENS Analysts can learn how Iran uses cheap drones to counterbalance effects of more expensive military equipment that is used by the U.S. or Israel. This provides hints as to how Iran has been able to sustain its war effort for so long. The information on the flight paths of refuelling planes into and out of Tel Aviv, which are used to keep fighter jets and bombers in action above Iran, also helps to inform the U.S. forces and Israeli forces on what they need to do to maintain pressure on Iran. The potential for the Middle East to be affected by the war is also revealed through a deep?dive into the extent of the Iran War. This array of tools, news, and analysis is essential for energy analysts and investors to navigate the "evolving risks" arising from the ongoing Iran War as it extends into its fifth week. The author is a columnist and he has expressed his opinions here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Swiss stocks: Factors to be on the lookout for March 30
Here are some of the key factors that could affect Swiss stocks on Monday: U.S. ?TARIFFS Following a preliminary agreement on tariffs reached last year, the Swiss President Guy Parmelin stated that trade?talks? between Switzerland and the United States would continue past March. According to an internal memo viewed by. NESTLE Nestle, the Swiss food giant, said that thieves stole 12 tons of KitKat bars from Europe last week. ANALYSTS' ?VIEWS * JP Morgan increases?target?price from CHF155 to CHF160 * SKAN GROUP / AG - Berenberg reduces?target price from CHF 67 to CHF 60 ECONOMY Swiss KOF indicator due at 0700 GMT SNB sight deposit due at 8am GMT (Reporting from Zurich and Gdansk Newsrooms)
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Trump reverses his course on Cuban oil embargo, allowing Russian tankers to pass
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Sunday that he would no longer block oil shipments from any country to Cuba. He said he has "no problems" with anyone sending crude into Cuba. This was as a Russian ship approached a Cuban harbor?with an urgent shipment. According to data from ship tracking, a sanctioned Russian vessel that is part of the "shadow fleet" was off the coasts of eastern Cuba Sunday. It was expected to arrive in port on Monday. This will be a lifeline to the economy of Cuba, which has been nearly brought to a standstill by a defacto oil embargo imposed by Washington. After the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, on January 3, the U.S. halted Venezuelan oil exports. Trump also threatened to impose punishing tariffs against any other country sending crude to Cuba. Mexico, along with Venezuela, was the biggest supplier of crude oil to Cuba. It then stopped its shipments. According to President Miguel Diaz Canel, Cuba hasn't received an oil tanker for three months. This has exacerbated an energy crisis, which has resulted in strict rationing and a series of blackouts throughout the 10 million-person country. Cuban health officials claim that the crisis has led to an increase in mortality rates for cancer patients and children, particularly. Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he sympathized with the Cuban people and their need for energy. He said he wasn't concerned about any help provided to the Communist government of Havana, as he believed it would fall soon. Trump said, "I have no issue with a country sending oil to Cuba, right now, whether it is Russia or not." "Cuba has finished. They have a bad government. Trump stated that they have a very corrupt and bad leadership. "Whether or not we get them a boat full of oil is not important," he said. "I would prefer to let it in, regardless of whether it was Russia or anyone else, as the people need heating and cooling, and all the other things you need," Trump said. Trump, while expressing concern for Cubans has made a number of threats against the Cuban Government and stated that he will turn his attention more to the country located 90 miles (150km) away from U.S. Shores once he deals with Iran. OIL CARGO COULD LAND UP CUBA for a month In March, the U.S. temporarily loosened sanctions against Russia in order to improve the flow of oil around the world that had been restricted due to the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. This measure did create exemptions that explicitly prohibited transactions with Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Crimea. LSEG's ship monitoring data shows that the Anatoly Koodkin left Russia's Primorsk Port with 650,000 barrels. Some reports claimed the vessel held 730,000 barrels. Cubadebate, the official Cuban media outlet, called the Russian shipment an 'direct challenge to the U.S. Oil Blockade' after the Russian Navy escorted a sanctioned vessel across the English Channel to the Caribbean. According to The New York Times, which cited a U.S. government official who was 'briefed' on the issue, the U.S. Coast Guard permitted the vessel to travel to Cuba. However, the reason for this decision is not known. The New?York Times, citing a U.S. official?briefed on the matter, reported that the U.S. Coast Guard allowed the sanctioned vessel to sail to Cuba, though it was unclear why. Brett Erickson, of consulting firm Obsidian Risk Advisors, said that the arrival of Anatoly Koodkin is significant because the British government allowed another ship from Russia’s shadow fleet to pass through English Channel last week after it announced they had authorized their military to board ships passing through UK water. He stated that Russia had received a "very large?windfall" from the war in Iran, while also providing Cuba with much-needed?oil. The strategic importance of Cuba to Moscow has grown since the fall?allies like Syria and Venezuela as well as the attack on Iran. Havana does not require a lot of oil to run. Erickson noted that the Kolodkin has about two-and-a-half weeks' worth of oil. However, this can be increased to a total of about one month, if Cubans are rationing. Steve Holland reported from Air Force One; Daniel Trotta was in Carlsbad in California; Marianna Pararaga was in Houston; and Dave Sherwood was in Havana. Daniel Trotta wrote the article; Costas Pitas edited it; Jonathan Oatis and Paul Simao were responsible for editing.
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Moldovan opposition parties contest the merits of the state of emergency
Moldovan opposition parties demanded on Sunday an explanation from the pro-European Moldovan government regarding its imposition of a "sweeping energy state of emergency" over a damaged electricity line that took four days to repair. Last Tuesday, the Eastern European country’s?parliament?approved a 60-day energy state of an emergency to streamline decision-making. The government had blamed Russian attacks on neighbouring Ukraine after knocking out the Isaccea - Vulcanesti electricity line. Moldova's Energy Ministry announced that the line, which runs from Romania to Moldova, and crosses 40 km of Ukrainian territory, was restored Saturday. This line is responsible for 70% of the country's energy needs. Igor Dodon of the prorussian Socialist Party wrote on Telegram that the state of 'emergency' was nothing but a sham and they were wrong not to support it. Dodon demanded that the state of emergency be immediately repealed and the pro-European Moldovan Government explain how they used the extra powers granted by the measure. Ion Ceban is the mayor of Chisinau and he also supports the repeal of the emergency. He has called for consumer protection measures in this former Soviet republic. Ceban is often at odds with government, as he leads an opposition party. The Prime Minister, Alexandru Munteanu, had asked the parliament to support the measure, which would allow the government to take decisions without having to seek the approval of the chamber, where the Party of Action and Solidarity holds a majority. Munteanu stated that Ukrainian specialists have promised to repair the line in five to seven working days. Igor Grosu described the Russian strikes by the speaker of the parliament as war crimes. Maia Sandu has criticized Russia's four-year war on Ukraine. She has also pledged to bring Moldova into Europe by 2030. She also accuses Moscow that it is trying to topple her government. Sandu, according to Moscow, is provoking hostility against Russia and its people. (Reporting and writing by Alexander Tanas, Ronald Popeski, and Paul Simao).
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Fire breaks out in Russia's Ust-Luga Port after drones from Ukraine cause damage
Russian officials reported that the Ust-Luga port, which is one of Russia's largest petroleum export outlets, was damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday, which ignited a fire. Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russia's oil export infrastructure in the last month. These attacks included Novorossiysk, on the Black Sea, and?Primorsk, and Ust-Luga, on the Baltic Sea. These attacks caused severe oil supply disruptions for Russia, which is the second largest oil exporter in the world. They also hit Moscow at a time when oil prices were above $100 per barrel because of?the Iran War. The Governor of Russia's Leningrad Region in the north said that there were waves of Ukrainian drone strikes on the area, and a fire broke out at the port?Ust-Luga which was also attacked by drones Wednesday. According to sources, the port operated by Russian oil monopoly Transneft handled around 700,000 barrels of oil per day. In 2025, it is expected that 32.9 million tons of oil-based products will be shipped. Ukraine's SBU agency for security said that?long-ranged drones hit an oil terminal in Ust-Luga. In a statement, it said that the strike had caused "serious damage" to the port and set off a fire. I was not able to verify the extent of the damages immediately. Reporting by. (Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Mark Potter and Mark Faulconbridge)
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Oman claims that no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks on its territory
Oman's Foreign Ministry?said Sunday that it?"condemns" attacks on its land, adn that no one has claimed responsibility. Authorities are investigating "sources and motivations" of the attacks, without giving any further details or naming a specific attack. Oman reported on Saturday that a worker had been injured in a drone attack at the Salalah port of the Gulf nation. Danish container shipping company Maersk later announced it temporarily halted operations?at the Salalah port?after the attack. Iranian media reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed on Saturday they had targeted a U.S. Support vessel "considerably" away from Salalah Port. The statement continued, "As we have stated previously, the Islamic Republic of Iran respects Oman's national sovereignty." On March 11, drones ?struck oil storage facilities ?at Salalah port. Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, told Oman's Sultan in a telephone call that an investigation would be conducted into this incident. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Menna Alaa el-Din, Jaidaa taha)
Sources say that European airlines likely exceeded the 2% green jetfuel target set last year.
A regulatory official and source said that Europe's aviation industry may have exceeded a 2% mandate in 2025 for the use of green jet fuel. This would boost airlines' green credentials, as the region attempts to reduce its reliance on hydrocarbons.
This achievement was previously unknown and will be reported in a later report. It represents a dramatic change from the previous year when only 0.6% of people had adopted it. Airlines warned repeatedly that they would miss their targets.
In an interview with Cologne's Florian Guillermet (head of the regional aviation safety agency EASA), which monitors the implementation?of targets, he said: "We think we will be at, or even above, 2% by 2025."
After the summer, EASA will release official data about last year's "sustainable jet fuel" (SAF) usage in Europe. The use of jet fuel has become more prominent as the 'Iran war' raises oil prices, disrupts supply and increases demand.
Separately, a senior European Union official - who asked not to be named - said that the region was likely over the threshold.
"We will finish at over 2% in Europe by 2025." "We see a clear response from the supply side to the mandate," said the person.
In 2025, the EU requires that 2% of fuel available at regional airports be SAF. This will increase to 6% by?2030. From 2030, synthetic SAF (eSAF), which is a form of SAF, must represent 1.2% of total fuel. This will rise to 5% by 2035.
Airlines for Europe, whose members include Ryanair,?Lufthansa, and British Airways' owner IAG, has urged regulators not to increase the eSAF requirements, claiming that supply is limited and cost are high.
The European Commission said that it does not intend to roll back the eSAF directive, but it acknowledged more needs to be done in order to'make fuel affordable and available.
"The mandate is what it is, and so is the situation." Guillermet reiterated comments made by the EU Transport Commissioner last week.
The EU official also agreed that it is important to adhere to the mandates. "We have proved so far that our right." (Reporting by Joanna Plucinska. (Editing by Adam Jourdan, Mark Potter and Mark Jourdan)
(source: Reuters)