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Wall St Week Ahead: Investors watch for Fed clues and earnings signs, as tech wobbles

Investors will be looking for clues this week about the?likelihood of imminent interest-rate increases and the early signs of an important earnings season to gauge the strength of U.S. stocks'?rally. This week, the second half of the year 2026 began'much like the first half did' with the rocky performance of "heavyweight" technology shares affecting major indexes. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's last month's meeting as well as earnings reports from Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo and other companies could be new indicators for a market that has been shaky in recent weeks due to its tech-fueled rally.

The market has seen gains over the last few months thanks to tech shares, and in particular semiconductors. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 14.9% during the second quarter, which ended on Tuesday. This was its best quarter since 2019. In recent months, this group has seen a dramatic swing, with steep drops to end the week. Over the last month, other sectors such as financial, industrial, and healthcare stocks have done well, giving investors hope of a healthy market rotation that will lead to broader gains.

Joe Mazzola is the head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab. He said, "I'll be watching that over the next few weeks to see if or not this broadening continues." If you start to see a prolonged pullback of some technology winners, will that mean the market is going backwards?

INVESTORS SEEK RATES CLUES FROM FED MINUTES. The outlook for interest rate?has changed from expectations of equity-friendly rates cuts at the beginning of the year to projections for hikes in the next months. These expectations of rate hikes were slightly reduced on Thursday after a less-than-expected job report. Following the Federal Reserve's meeting last month, which was led for the first time by Kevin Warsh as chairperson, hawkish bets were on the rise. He said the Fed would be focused on price stability and inflation that is above its 2% target. The minutes of that meeting are expected to be released on Wednesday.

Warsh warned that the Fed would not be able to control the markets and had ceased providing any guidance as to what it might do in the short term. This could make the minutes of future Fed meetings more significant.

Matthew Miskin is the co-chief investment strategy at Manulife John Hancock Investments.

Investors and markets will be asking: what is the new Fed Chairman and the updated (Fed Policymaking Body) looking for in order to determine where rates are headed from here? Investors said that a key issue was how Fed policymakers viewed the inflationary impact energy prices. Energy prices had been declining since the spikes caused by the Iran war. The extent of the divisions among Fed officials is another important topic.

Bonds can be more attractive to investors than stocks if interest rates rise. This is because higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses.

LSEG data showed that Fed fund futures at the end of Thursday indicated roughly equal odds that?the Central Bank would raise rates before its September meeting. The Labor Department's data on Thursday showed that U.S. employment growth was slowed dramatically in June. This helped to calm some fears of a rate hike.

"If the Fed becomes more restrictive and begins a tightening process, this is a risk for the market and valuations", said James Ragan. He is co-CIO at D.A. Davidson. "I think it's important to get more information about what the Fed is thinking."

SEASONAL PIVOTAL EARNINGS

The release of services and manufacturing activity could clarify the inflation trend in a week with relatively few economic data releases.

In recent months, stocks have recovered from the declines caused by the U.S./Israeli conflict over Iran. The S&P 500 has risen more than 9% since 2026 while the Nasdaq Composite, which is heavily tech-oriented, has risen 11%. The market's rise was fueled by the surprising strength of first-quarter corporate earnings. This has raised the bar as the second-quarter report season heats up this month.

Next week, two early reports will be released: Delta and the snack and beverage manufacturer PepsiCo. Both offer different perspectives regarding consumer spending trends.

According to LSEG, IBES, the S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings in the second quarter by over 24%.

Keith Lerner is the chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services. He said that if the north star is earnings, then the most important thing to do for earnings season is to confirm the earnings trajectory this year, and ensure the upward momentum will continue into next year. (Reporting and editing by Michelle Price, David Gregorio and Lewis Krauskopf)

(source: Reuters)