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Manishi Raymondchaudhuri: The thaw in the Sino-Indian relationship will be a major test for economic growth

India wants to move out of China's shadow and improve diplomatic relations. But the more it pushes the more its dependency on China, its wealthier neighbor, becomes apparent.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met in New Delhi in December. It was Xi's very first trip to India in seven years. Both leaders agreed to repair the damage caused by the deadly hand-to -hand clashes that occurred in 2020 along their shared, but poorly defined Himalayan border.

Since the two Asian giants agreed last year to end their military standoff, there are other signs of warming relations. Since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, direct flights between Indian cities and Chinese 'cities' have been resumed. Visa services in China are also expanding.

These measures are only a first step. Handshakes and plane rides will not solve the problem of long-standing trade dependency and strategic distrust.

The economic relationship between the two Asian giants remains profoundly asymmetric. According to the World Bank, China's share in global manufacturing value added was 28% by 2025. This is far greater than India's 3%.

India's export situation is also lopsided. China's 16.3% of global merchandise exports by 2025 will be a massively greater share than India's 1.7%. India will import goods from China worth $116 billion dollars more than it exports in 2025. In August of this year, India's deficit was already at $91 billion. It was on course to surpass the record set last year.

CAPTIVE SUPPLY CHAINS

It's not just that India imports from China more. Many of these imports are essential to Indian industry. The three largest import categories are electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), machinery and chemicals. These goods are used as intermediates by Indian manufacturers. India imports more from China the more it exports.

The dilemma is illustrated by smartphones and generic drugs. India has made great progress in expanding pharmaceutical production and assembling electronic devices, but many of the inputs and components needed by both sectors are still sourced from China.

This dependence has broad strategic implications. Beijing's introduction of export licensing requirements for seven heavy rare Earths in April 2025, exposed India's automotive manufacturing and defense sectors to vulnerabilities.

India's manufacturing problems are not all due to foreign competition. According to the latest Economic Survey, India's R&D spending in 2024 was just 0.64%, which is significantly lower than its?Asian counterparts, partly due to private sector underinvestment.

The problem is compounded by the shortage of skilled workers. Foxconn's decision to withdraw Chinese staff from their Indian iPhone factories by 2025 showed how advanced manufacturing is dependent on foreign expertise.

INDIA'S FIXES

New Delhi is trying to correct the imbalance.

India has recently eased restrictions on Chinese foreign direct investments (FDI), allowing them to own up to 10% of Indian companies.

The government announced simultaneously that it would expedite the clearance of investment proposals within 60 days in five high-tech areas, provided they were structured as joint ventures and had majority Indian ownership.

India's exports to China increased by 40% from April to August. The increase in exports is largely due to industrial machinery, automotive components and printed circuit boards as well as smartphones and other electronic products.

The export boom should not be misinterpreted as a fundamental change in the relationship. India's electronic growth is still heavily dependent on Chinese imports. Smartphone manufacturing, India's largest export success story, is still only 18-20% local.

The AI boom in Northeast Asia is generating positive spillovers to the subcontinent. Indian firms are picking up sub-components from Chinese tech giants who are facing a surge in hardware demand. This dynamic, however, reinforces the importance of Chinese supply chains.

TRUST DEFICIT IS PERSISENT

In order for China-bound FDI to reach India and for technology transfer to take place, it is important to answer the question: What does India have to offer?

China is not taking up the bait. The obvious answer to this question is 'access to a large, young market with a low-cost labor pool'. Also, New Delhi has various incentives for industrial growth, including tax breaks, payouts linked to production, and capital subsidies.

China's pressure to its leading companies, which includes EVs, batteries and solar energy equipment as well as electronic equipment, shows how Beijing protects its most sophisticated capabilities.

The 3,800 km (2,400 miles) of disputed border in Himalayas continue to cast a cloud over the relationship. The two countries have agreed to a gradual, multi-year stabilisation plan. Diplomats met in Beijing last August and pledged a "fair settlement that is reasonable for both parties". However, there does not appear to be a resolution imminent.

Both governments seem willing to expand economic cooperation for the time being. India's challenge does not just lie in reducing its imports from China. The challenge for India is to use a renewed engagement with China to develop its own domestic capabilities. The relationship between Asia's largest economies until then will be a one-sided affair.

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(source: Reuters)