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Source: Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are exploring a merger across the continent.

A person familiar with this matter has confirmed that Union Pacific, which is the largest U.S. railroad operator in terms of freight, is looking at acquiring Norfolk Southern, to create a coast-to-coast network worth $200 billion.

The person stated that the talks are still in their early stages. There is no guarantee that they will continue or any deal will pass what would have to be an extensive, detailed regulatory examination. Both companies declined to make any comments.

A deal that unites two of the largest freight rail operators from North America will likely be subject to intense scrutiny by regulators. The steel, grain and chemical industries will likely lobby against further consolidation in an industry which has already consolidated from more than 100 Class I railroads back in the 1950s down to six today.

Union Pacific shares dropped 2.7% on Friday afternoon, while Norfolk Southern shares rose 1.52%.

Combining the two would create a single-line freight rail network that would stretch from coast to coast and change the divide between the western and eastern regional operators.

Norfolk is recovering after a turbulent couple of years, which included the firing its former CEO amid ethics investigation, a battle in the boardroom with activist Ancora and a derailment of a train that cost about $1.4 billion to the company.

CONCENTRATION

The merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern will create the United States' first single-line modern freight railroad from West to East.

Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena stated earlier this year that a transcontinental merge would benefit customers by eliminating the need for carriers to interchange in Chicago, a bottleneck for many years, and reducing delays.

Critics warn, however, that a consolidation of this kind could lead to a reduction in competition. This is causing regulators concern. Shippers could face increased costs and fewer service options if there are fewer major players on the market.

Brandon R. Oglenski, Barclays analyst, said: "We suspect that certain shipper groups may be vocal about the perceived loss of competition that a merger could bring.

Semafor was the first to report that discussions between two operators were taking place. This led to speculations about competitors considering concentration.

Mike Steenhoek is the executive director of Soy Transportation Coalition. He said, "History shows that mergers and purchases within the railroad sector will inspire and encourage additional M&A."

Canadian National, CP's main rival, then made an offer to purchase Kansas City Southern.

Canadian Pacific acquired Kansas City Southern, creating the first railroad linking Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. in 2023.

Union Pacific will lead the industry in 2024 with $24.3 billion, followed by BNSF, CSX (privately owned, owned by Berkshire Hathaway), Canadian National, Norfolk, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City.

Steenhoek stated that the energy and momentum towards the remaining U.S. based Class I Railroads - BNSF & CSX – pursuing a merge would be significant.

Oglenski stated that a regulatory decision can take between 16 and 22 months. Merging carriers are required to notify Surface Transportation Board 3 to 6 months prior to filing an application. This is followed by a year of evidentiary review, and then a 90-day final ruling.

He said that a potential Union Pacific purchase of Norfolk Southern would have material synergies.

Emily Nasseff Mitsch is an equity analyst with CFRA. Reporting by Sabrina Valle in New York and Lisa Bartlein; editing by David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)