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Maguire: Seven charts show tighter energy markets by 2027.
Energy traders around the world are sending out a consistent message for 2027: they do not anticipate global energy markets becoming calmer any time soon. The energy markets are still a mess in 2022, with confusion over energy production and flow from the Middle East and Russia. Traders do not expect a return to 'predictable and stable energy systems that existed prior to Russia's invasion. Energy markets price a future where geopolitical tensions are high, supply chains are vulnerable, and key fuels products remain in shortage. Freight Pain The routes that connect the world's largest oil producing region with the biggest energy-consuming markets are the clearest indicator. According to LSEG the daily time charter rates of tankers sailing between the Middle East and China has topped $600,000. This is only the second instance in history that this rate has exceeded the historic average. The renewed threat by the United States to launch an "economic assault" against Iran has sparked concerns over new tensions around Gulf. The high prices reflect both the demand for ships and the risks associated with transporting fuel through key maritime chokepoints. The strength of the freight?markets indicates traders expect disruption risk around the Gulf to continue as a feature of international energy trade into next year. REFINED PRODUCT TENSIONS On refined fuel markets, the same message is evident. Diesel futures are trading in Europe at around 35% over their average for 2024-25 through 2027. U.S. Heating Oil Futures, which is a benchmark of diesel, currently trades about 42% above its 2024-25 standard. Consistency is what makes these signals stand out. Europe and North America have different refinerys, fuel regulations and supply chains. Both markets have priced in tight diesel supply for the entire year. This suggests that traders are more concerned about a general shortage of middle distillates than isolated regional imbalances. The Asian refining markets confirm this view. Singapore, Asia's main oil trading hub is awash with record-high refining margins for diesel and jetfuel. The refining margin is the amount of money that refiners get for converting crude into?fuels. A high margin is usually an indication that the demand for a product exceeds available processing capacity. The markets do not indicate a shortage of crude in the near future. The fuels that consumers use and support the global economy are in constant shortage. That distinction matters. In recent years, the global oil industry has increased its crude production capacity. It is much more difficult and expensive to replace refining capacity. The closure of a wave of refineries in Europe and North America have reduced the spare capacity. This has made fuel markets more susceptible to trade disruptions. EUROPE'S Power Woes The European energy market is also pointing in the same direction. The benchmark TTF natural-gas futures contract is trading at 38% over the 2024-25 average rate through 2027. Meanwhile, forward German power prices have risen to almost 70%. Both markets are nowhere near the highs that were reached during the energy crises triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But neither are the prices of a return to conditions prior to the crisis. The traders appear to think that Europe will continue to pay a premium for energy security, as it competes to import gas supplies and works towards balancing a power system more dependent on renewable generation. U.S. Gas STANDS ALONE Natural gas in the United States is the only exception to this tightening trend. Henry Hub futures prices are only modestly higher than their recent averages through 2027. This reflects confidence in America’s ability to produce large quantities of gas, even though LNG exports continue growing. U.S. Gas, on the other hand, highlights a growing divide in global markets for energy, rather than contradicting broader messages. North America is one of few regions that has a large domestic fuel supply. Europe is heavily dependent on imported fuel. Asia is still vulnerable to disruptions both in shipping and refining. The seven markets together tell a cohesive story. The traders are not pricing a return to the energy abundance of 2022 or another energy shock similar to that in 2022. They are instead betting on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, constrained refinery capacity, expensive transport and persistent competition to supply fuel supplies that will keep energy prices tight through 2027. The question is not whether the energy system can produce enough oil and natural gas, but rather if it can refine, transport and deliver those products at a reasonable price to meet the demand. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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The Russian NKHP estimates that repairs to grain terminals after an attack could take up to four months.
The 'company' said on Wednesday that the repair work at NKHP, a?of three grain export terminals in Russia's?Black Sea main port of Novorossiysk could take as long as?four months after a Ukrainian attack. In the past few months, attacks have stopped almost all grain exports through ports on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Previously, 70% of Russian grain exports were shipped via these ports. On August 12, Ukraine launched a massive drone strike on Novorossiysk that took out all three grain terminals. The third terminal, which belongs to Delo Group and is owned by Demetra, was not damaged during the attack but operations were suspended. After the attack, the owner of NKHP (Russian?state-owned United Grain Company) confirmed that the terminal was damaged. Sources said that the loading gallery is one of the affected facilities. According to a financial statement published on Wednesday, the final timeline for repair has not yet been determined. NKHP is one of three largest?terminals in the port of Novorossiysk, with a combined yearly?capacity?of?over 20 millions tons. Total seaborne exports were 52.7 million tonnes last season. The Russian government is looking at ways to redirect grain exports via other ports such as the Baltic, Caspian and Far Eastern routes. Reporting by Gleb Stlyarov and Marina Bobrova. Olga Popova. Alessandra Prente and Gleb Stalyarov (with Vladimir Soldatkin, Elaine Hardcastle and Elaine Hardcastle editing)
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PCK Schwedt, a German company, can replace Kazakh crude oil in full.
A spokesperson for PCK Schwedt in Germany said that the refinery is still running at around 80% of its capacity, despite the loss of Kazakh crude oil. Alternative imports through Poland's Gdansk Port have fully compensated for what was lost, according to a statement on Wednesday. Russia has stopped supplying Kazakh crude oil to Germany via the Druzhba Pipeline as of?May 1. This is a serious blow to the refinery that supplies the majority of fuel to Berlin and relies on Kazakhstan for 17%. PCK's?currently? supplied via?routes through Rostock and Gdansk allows it to maintain the operating levels reached when Kazakh oil still was available, according to Ralf Schairer. He is the spokesperson for the PCK?Raffinerie management board. "In the first three months, we ran at a little over 85%. "That was a very good result for us," he said to journalists at the refinery located in northern-eastern Germany. Schairer added that it was an "outstanding?achievement" to accomplish this in such a short period of time. (Reporting and editing by Linda Pasquini, Jan Harvey and Miranda Murray)
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Six months after the war began, the US-Iran conflict has descended into a trench-war on energy: Bousso
Six months after the U.S. vs. Iran war began, it has hardened into a stalemate which could last until 2027. The conflict is raging, energy markets are held hostage and inflation is high. Neither side wants to or can back down. The war that has caused thousands of deaths and extensive damage in the Middle East has taken on a new face. The war began on February 28, as a joint U.S. and Israeli effort to cripple Iran, aiming at eliminating Tehran's nuclear programs, weakening its proxy network and possibly topple the Government. It has become a more narrow?struggle centered on one issue: who controls Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is used to transport?roughly? a?fifth of the global oil and natural gas supplies. The dueling blockades by the U.S. and Iran have severely curtailed the traffic through the Strait in the last six months. This has disrupted energy markets and increased costs for global economies. Brent crude is still around $90 per barrel, about 25% higher than its pre-war price. This is due to the fact that crude prices are not as high as expected, largely because of ample global stocks, reduced Chinese imports, and increased production outside the Gulf. The market buffers which cushioned the first energy shock have now been largely depleted - this is a concerning sign. The Trump administration may be prompted by this risk to either double down on the crisis or to retreat completely. The impasse remains a stalemate that is difficult to resolve. The deadlock is not being broken by either side. No Way Out Iran is unlikely to blink before anyone else. Its economy is suffering?enormously. U.S. efforts have reduced oil exports, Tehran's primary source of income, by about 85% compared to pre-war levels. In August, they were down to 250,000 barrels/day (bpd), fueling inflation and a worsening of the economic situation. The government has proved to be far more resilient than expected. The Iranian government did not collapse after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war. Instead, it adapted and strengthened its position. Iran is unable to dominate its neighbors militarily but has shown that it can inflict pain on them economically by controlling the Strait of Hormuz through periodic attacks and threats. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has shown little interest in escalating this conflict to the point that it could endanger U.S. soldiers or the global economic system. The conflict is becoming increasingly unpopular among U.S. citizens as the midterm elections in November approach. Energy-driven inflation has exacerbated cost of living concerns. Washington has one main objective: to restore energy flows through Hormuz while lowering fuel costs at home. How? Beyond Hormuz The conflict has revealed the real bottleneck of the global energy system. The bottleneck is not crude oil supply, but refinery capacity. Around a fifth of Middle Eastern refinery capacity is offline due to war damage or export disruptions. Chinese refinery output is well below the level of a year ago, while Russian refinery production remains restricted by drone attacks from Ukraine. According to Energy Aspects, the combined impact of these disruptions in August reduced global refinery output by approximately 4 million bpd or 5% from a previous year. Fuel shortages are a result. This distinction is important for Trump's administration, because the voters do not buy crude oil but gasoline. The price of gasoline in the United States has risen by about 30% during the last year. Diesel prices are up more than 50%. Even if more crude oil begins to flow through Hormuz in the future, it will take much longer to rebuild refining capacities. The options available to the administration for reducing domestic fuel prices are becoming fewer and fewer. OPTICAL ILLUSION Recent White House actions highlight these limitations. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions against Iran on Monday and threatened secondary actions against countries that continue to do business. He called the campaign an "economic D-Day." But sanctions will not deliver breakthroughs and secondary sanctions have little impact when Bessent makes it clear that Washington wants to avoid any actions that would seriously disrupt the global economy. This reduces the chances that the U.S. would impose severe sanctions on China, Tehran’s largest oil client - one the few economic measures which could have an impact with Iran. Washington also wants to sway markets by saying that oil flow?through Hormuz is recovering quickly despite Iranian threats. Senior White House officials argued in the last week that Gulf exports were approaching pre-war levels, as more tankers left under U.S. Naval protection with their transponders 'off. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Friday that the average seven-day oil exports from Hormuz have risen above 8 million barrels per day. Shipping analytics companies monitoring Hormuz via satellite imagery and vessel tracking data, however, see few signs of a recovery. Kpler reports that oil exports have been averaging just 2.2m bpd in August. Total regional crude exports including shipments through Saudi and Emirati ports bypassing Hormuz averaged 9 million bpd during August, down from 11 millions bpd last month and 17 million bpd by 2025. Washington may be working behind the scenes to reach a deal, but the disparity between its public claims and data indicates desperation. TRENCH WARFARE Trump will find it harder to claim that the conflict is successful the longer it continues. The Islamic government is still in power. Hormuz continues to be constrained. Fuel prices are high and the economic costs are continuing to rise. The U.S. has?overwhelming military and economic power, but little appetite for an extended war. Iran is economically weak, but has shown a willingness for it to endure extraordinary pain in pursuit of strategic goals. It is therefore a conflict of endurance, not manoeuvre. Despite what Trump & Bessent argued in this week, U.S. Economic pressure resembles grinding trench warfare which kept World War One alive far more than decisive Allied attacks that ended World War Two. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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WiseTech, Australia's largest software company, falls 10% after e2open costs weigh
The shares of logistics software maker WiseTech Global fell more than 10% after the company reported a lower-than-expected annual profit on Wednesday. Acquisition costs, interest, and amortization costs related to its e2open acquisition weighed down on the earnings. The ASX200 index, the benchmark, ended up 0.4% lower as the market's biggest technology company, based on its share value, closed down 10.1%. The $2.1 billion e2open acquisition completed in June to expand CargoWise's services beyond freight forwarding, customs and supply chain into broader supply-chain services was at the expense of higher interest and amortization costs, which weighed on statutory profits. According to a Jefferies report, WiseTech's statutory net profit was $178.7m for the fiscal year ending June 30. This is below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $181.9m. CargoWise's revenue fell 0.7% short of Visible?Alpha's estimate. Citi warned that consensus estimates may still be at the lower end CargoWise’s revenue growth guidance. Citing uncertainty over customer conversions and AI monetisation, as well as the timing of price increases, Citi said a more significant acceleration was unlikely to occur before the second half. The gap between the underlying and statutory net profit is due to acquired amortization, M&A costs, contingent consideration adjustments and higher interest rates on the $2.4billion of debt borrowed to fund e2open, said Emanuel Ajay Datt. WiseTech has forecast revenue of $1.48 to $1.54 billion for fiscal 2027 and earnings of $725 to $780 million. This is an increase from $1.40 billion in revenue and $644 million in earnings during fiscal 2026. Datt noted that the guidance range for FY27 looks conservative due to the work required to integrate the e2open operation. He also cited WiseTech’s history of exceeding its own guidance. Separately the logistics technology sector is attracting new capital. On August 25, 'autonomous trucking' company Gatik raised $200 million in a Series d funding round led by Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and Koch Disruptive Technologies. (Reporting from Aamir Khalid in Bengaluru, Additional reporting by Kumar Tanishk and Editing by Rashmi Aich.)
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Kenya Airways reveals potential investors as losses increase
Kenya Airways' chairman has said that the carrier will reveal details of new investors in a few weeks, as it seeks to raise capital for its turnaround plan, ease debt, and restore grounded aircraft. Kiprono kittony, the chairman of KQ, told reporters that "we have received interest from both 'local' and international investors who are willing to inject capital into the company as well as other resources." The airline is facing a number of challenges, including high fuel prices, delays in aircraft maintenance, and a lack of spare parts. These factors have led to a reduction in capacity, despite booming passenger demand. Kenya Airways reported an pre-tax loss for the first six months of 2026 of 15.92 billions shillings (123 million dollars), compared to a loss last year of 12.17 billions shillings. Fuel costs accounted for as much as 50% of the total cost of the airline on Wednesday, last week. The Middle -East conflict was to blame, according to the carrier. The Middle?East conflict has also caused delays in spare parts deliveries and maintenance services. Kittony, a local broadcaster, told Citizen TV on Tuesday evening that the airline has received interest from investors from the United States of America, China, South Africa and Singapore. However, the process would be transparent because the company is listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Kittony stated, "We are confident we will be able to find a partner for capital raising and a partner who can provide strategic advice from the aviation industry." He said that a major part of the plan was to clean up the airline’s balance sheet. This would include the conversion of principal debt owed by the Kenyan Government and a group of local banks into equity. Kenya Airways is owned by the government. He said that it was also "a strategic imperative" for Kenya to maintain significant equity control over the carrier, in order to keep the status of national carrier.
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Dubai's DXB passenger traffic drops more than 30% in the first half of the year as Iran War disrupts travel
Dubai International Airport's operator reported on Wednesday that passenger traffic fell 31.3% during the first six months of the year as the Iran War disrupted travel across the gulf, including at the busy international travel hub. Dubai Airports announced in a press release that DXB had welcomed 13 million passengers during the second quarter. This brings the total traffic for the first half of the year up to 31.5 millions. This is compared to 46 millions passengers during the same period last year. It?added that the number of aircraft movements in the first half was 150,600, a 32.1% decrease from last year. Flights have been cancelled, rescheduled, and rerouted as a result of the conflict that began on February 28. The fallout has reached far beyond the Gulf region, due to the soaring prices for jet fuel. Middle Eastern carriers, including some of the largest in the world, saw their networks disrupted by the conflict but gradually resumed activity. Emirates President Tim Clark stated last month that the airline was flying at 90% capacity. While more airlines are restoring their flights in the Middle East region, some major carriers such as?Lufthansa?, British Airways?, and Singapore Airlines?remain cautious and have?extended? suspensions?on?a variety of routes?in the region? Dubai Airports stated that the hub has shown resilience, as capacity is returning and investments are continuing. It said that "the'steady return of international airlines, improved connectivity and strengthening load factor signals resilient demand across key -markets and growing confidence ahead of DXB s traditionally busy second?half." Before the war began, the company predicted that passenger traffic would reach nearly 100 million this year. (Reporting by Federico Maccioni; Editing by Jan Harvey)
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Maguire: Seven charts show tighter energy markets by 2027.
Energy traders around the world are sending out a consistent message for 2027: they do not anticipate global energy markets becoming calmer any time soon. The energy markets are still a mess in 2022, with confusion over energy production and flow from the Middle East and Russia. Traders do not expect a return to 'predictable and stable energy systems that existed prior to Russia's invasion. Energy markets price a future where geopolitical tensions are high, supply chains are vulnerable, and key fuels products remain in shortage. Freight Pain The routes that connect the world's largest oil producing region with the biggest energy consuming markets are the clearest indicator. According to LSEG the daily time charter rates of tankers sailing between the Middle East and China has surpassed $600,000. This is only the second instance in history that this rate has exceeded $600,000. The renewed threat by the United States to launch an "economic assault" against Iran has sparked concerns over new tensions in the Gulf. The high prices reflect both the demand for ships and the risks associated with transporting fuel through key maritime chokepoints. The strength of the freight?markets indicates traders expect disruption risk around the Gulf to continue as a feature of international energy trade into next year. TENSIONS FOR REFINED PRODUCTS On refined fuel markets, the same message is evident. Diesel futures are trading in Europe at around 35% over their average for 2024-25 through 2027. U.S. Heating Oil Futures, which is a benchmark of diesel, currently trades about 42% over the average. Consistency is what makes these signals stand out. Europe and North America have different refinerys, fuel regulations, and supply chains. Both markets have priced in tight diesel supply for the entire year. This suggests that traders are more concerned about a general shortage of middle distillates than isolated regional imbalances. The Asian refining markets confirm this view. Singapore, Asia's main oil trading hub is awash with record-high refining margins for diesel and jetfuel. The refining margin is the amount of money that refiners get for converting crude into?fuels. A high margin is usually an indication that the demand for a product exceeds available processing capacity. The markets do not indicate a shortage of crude in the near future. The fuels that consumers use and support the global economy are in constant shortage. That distinction matters. In recent years, the global oil industry has increased its crude production capacity. It is much more difficult and expensive to replace refining capacity. The closure of a wave of refineries in Europe and North America have reduced the spare capacity. This has made fuel markets more susceptible to trade disruptions. EUROPE'S Power Woes The European energy market is also pointing in the same direction. The benchmark TTF natural-gas futures contract is trading at 38% over the 2024-25 average rate through 2027. Meanwhile, forward German power prices have risen to almost 70%. Both markets are nowhere near the highs that were reached during the energy crises triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But neither are the prices of a return to conditions prior to the crisis. The traders appear to think that Europe will continue to pay a premium for energy security, as it competes to import gas supplies and works towards balancing a power system more dependent on renewable energy. U.S. Gas STANDS ALONE Natural gas in the United States is the only exception to this tightening trend. Henry Hub futures prices are only modestly higher than their recent averages through 2027. This reflects confidence in America’s ability to produce large quantities of gas, even though LNG exports are continuing to grow. U.S. Gas, on the other hand, highlights a growing divide in global markets for energy, rather than contradicting a broader message. North America is one of few regions that has a large domestic fuel supply. Europe is heavily dependent on imported fuel. Asia is still vulnerable to disruptions both in shipping and refining. The seven markets together tell a cohesive story. The traders are not pricing a return to the energy abundance of 2022 or another energy shock similar to that in 2022. They are instead betting on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, constrained refinery capacity, expensive transport and persistent competition to supply fuel to keep energy markets tight through 2027. The question is not whether the energy system can produce enough oil and natural gas, but rather if it can refine, transport and deliver those products at a reasonable price to meet the demand. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)
As many as 70 ships are parked on the Danube due to bottlenecks that slow Ukraine grain exports
Traders and analysts said that up to 70 vessels were waiting for access to Ukrainian ports in order to load grain for export. This is due to the lack of pilots, and other cargoes being given priority.
After Russian attacks blocked Ukraine's Black Sea port, which handled 90% of its grain exports before, some shipments have been rerouted to Danube riverports which have a much smaller capacity.
Exports are slowed by the fact that grain cargoes compete for access to ports with other shipments of a higher priority, such as fuel. Air raid alerts that force all port operations to be suspended have caused further disruption.
Ukraine is the largest grain exporter in the world. Any disruptions can cause global prices to rise.
The situation could worsen
According to ASAP Agri, "On August 25, over 50 vessels were waiting for passage through the Sulina Channel while only 5 to 7 vessels per day moved towards Ukraine's Danube ports."
The consultancy said on Telegram that every day of delay could cost up to $8,000. This is in addition to the already high freight rate.
The report added that "the situation could worsen in the next few days if weather conditions worsen."
Katerina Kononenko of Avalon Shipping, the operations manager, stated that due to bad weather, it was expected that the Sulina Canal would be closed for two days.
"For the present situation, it is a real setback. Around 70 vessels wait at Sulina Road today. In the present, the actual traffic capacity of Sulina Channel is two to three vessels going to Ukrainian ports per day. This is a very low number," she added.
Ukraine relied heavily upon the Danube ports during the earlier war, when Russia had blocked the ports in the Greater Odesa area. The maximum grain export capacity via the Danube was 2.5 million metric tonnes per month in 2022-2023.
Exports via the Danube are still well below their previous levels, despite traders' gradual increases in shipments. Ukrzaliznytsia, the state railway operator, said in August that grain transport volumes were 11 times greater than in July.
According to data from the Agriculture Ministry, Ukraine exported 539,000 tonnes of grain between August 1 and August 21 compared to 1.73 millions in the same time period last year. (Reporting from Pavel Polityuk. Mark Potter (Editing)
(source: Reuters)