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Ryanair CEO: Winter fares could rise after a slight increase
Michael O'Leary, Chief Executive Officer of Ryanair, boosted the airline's forecast for average fares on Thursday. He said they could?rise?slightly?this winter, following a'mild increase' since July. However, this outlook was heavily dependent on oil prices. As oil prices rose, the airline's costs increased. The result was a drop in profit in its last quarter. O'Leary, on Thursday, said that since then, fares have risen "by a very low single digit" percentage year-over-year. O'Leary said at a press conference that there had been a "slight upturn" in the last month. He said it was impossible to determine what caused the increase or if it would continue. Slight Improvement from July Prediction He said that the average fares from July to September for this current quarter will fall by very low single-digit percentages year-on-year. This is an upgrade to his prediction from July that the falls would be closer to low single digits rather than mid-single numbers. O'Leary said in July that winter fares would fall in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range, but prices could go up or stay flat if competitors reduced capacity in response to rising oil prices. He said that the scenario of a flat to slightly higher price was more likely on Thursday. The oil price will determine a lot in the next few months, but it is not certain. He said that he was "reasonably hopeful" that prices would remain flat or even go slightly up in the second half. The price of oil has risen to $100 per barrel this week as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran intensified. OIL RISES HIGHER - FARES WILL SOAR SIGNIFICANTLY Ryanair reduced flights from its winter schedule in the first half of this month to cut losses and reduce its exposure to unhedged oil. This resulted in a decrease to its fiscal 2027 target traffic to 214 millions passengers from 216 million. O'Leary stated that if oil prices continue to rise into next year there will be "a significant increase" in airfares. O'Leary said that he believes there is plenty of time between now and Christmas to extend the hedges. Ryanair, one of Europe's most well-hedged carriers, has hedged 80% through March 2027 for fuel at around $67 per barrel and 15% the following year for $85 per barrel.
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State media: At least 20 dead in fire on cargo ship at China shipyard
State media reported that at least '20 people were killed and five more are still missing in an 'incident aboard a foreign cargo ship undergoing repairs?at a government-owned shipyard located in the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao. Xinhua reported that the fire started at around 11:15 a.m. during repairs and inspections at the Qingdao Beihai Shipyard. Twelve of the 42 passengers were evacuated safely and five others were hospitalised. State media reported that the fire was out by early afternoon. A photo of the scene, released by Xinhua, showed?the Ocean Melody as the vessel involved. LSEG'ship-tracking data' identified it as a 20 year old Liberia flag dry bulk carrier, managed by Yuyangkunpeng Shanghai Shp Mgm with Huili Shipping Co Ltd on its list of registered owners. LSEG data shows that the vessel has been at Qingdao Shipyard since August 31, and it is still there. According to Xinhua, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for increased search and rescue efforts as well as a rapid investigation and accountability measures. China State Shipbuilding Corporation, one of the largest shipbuilders in the world, controls?the shipyard?. CSSC calls itself China's leading naval shipbuilder, and the country's largest designer of ships and offshore gear. On the website of the CSSC owned?Qingdao?unit, a 2022 recruitment notice stated that the?shipyard's annual shipbuilding capability was 3 million deadweight tonnes and it could repair 212 ships a year.
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Maguire, Where global LNG and gas infrastructure is growing
As demand for coal and oil increases due to climate policy, energy efficiency and electrification, natural gas and LNG are the fastest growing markets in the fossil fuel industry. Gas is increasingly being used by governments and utilities to support the 'rising demand for electricity and supply reliable power along with expanding renewable energy sources. This has triggered a global investment wave in pipelines, LNG export and import infrastructure, and gas-fired generators. Eight key charts are shown below that illustrate the regions and countries driving this growth. Power Play Global Energy Monitor data shows that Asia dominates global gas-fired generation capacity, both in use and under construction. Asia's 950,000 megawatts of operational capacity is comparable to the 735,000 MW operating in North America, and it far exceeds the 366,000 MW found in Europe. Asia is currently building an additional 140,000 MW, or more than three times as much power as any other region. The U.S. has the largest gas-fired power plant in the world, with 562,000 MW currently operating, while China is the country with the highest capacity under construction. THE PIPELINE PIPELINE Gas pipelines in the Americas are currently operating at just over 490,000 km (304,471 mi). This total is far greater than the 281,000 km of pipelines in Asia or 262,680 km in Europe. Asia has the largest pipeline capacity currently under construction with 56,000 km. China is the country with the most pipelines, having built nearly 22,000 km, followed by India, which has built nearly 15,000 km. The Footprint for LNG Export The U.S. has the biggest LNG export capacity and is the top producer of gas in the world. However, Asia, with its extensive export infrastructure that stretches from the Middle East to Southeast Asia, ranks first. GEM data indicates that the U.S. has also?the largest LNG export capability under construction. Around 100 million metric tonnes of annual export capacities are currently being built. GROWTH OF LNG IMPORTS Asia is the top LNG-importing country in the world, and dominates the import infrastructure landscape. It accounts for 66% of current import capacity, and 70% of capacity under construction. Japan has the largest import infrastructure at the national level with 242 millions tons of import capacity per year. China, with 97?million tonnes of import capacity in construction, has the largest lead. Energy infrastructure is durable once it has been built. Natural gas is a dominant energy source in the world. The vast number of gas-fired power plants, pipelines and?LNG installations that are already operational or under construction suggest this. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Transnet, South Africa's largest freight transporter, returns profit from asset sales and increased volumes
Transnet, the state-owned South?African logistics group, reported Thursday a profit of 4.6 billion rands ($286.05 millions) for the fiscal year ending March 2026. This is the first profit it has made in the last four years. In a press release, the?group of freight rail ports and pipelines said that the profits were mainly due to the sale of its 'Pier 2 terminal as well as an increase in rail and pipe volumes. Due to equipment shortages, and maintenance backlogs, the debt-ridden company has been holding back growth in Africa’s largest economy for years. The performance of the company has begun to improve, thanks in part to government guarantees that have boosted liquidity and prevented a possible debt default. Transnet's?revenues grew 7.1% in the latest financial year to 88.6 Billion Rands.
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Dealmaking in the aerospace sector accelerates as jet production increases
According to data from the industry and interviews with decision makers and suppliers, mergers and acquisitions in the aerospace industry are increasing as buyers gain more confidence in long-term demands due to clearer Boeing and Airbus schedules. Through August, the aerospace and defense investment bank Janes Capital Partners, which focuses on commercial aerospace, tracked 154 publicly-disclosed commercial aerospace transactions in this year. This is just a few short of the record of 159 that was set in 2019. Buyers target suppliers who have specialized manufacturing abilities, scarce workers and the capacity to meet an increasing jet production. The major manufacturers also seek to secure critical component supplies. GE Aerospace announced this week that it has purchased Consolidated Precision Products for $12 billion as part of its efforts to increase engine production. Parker Hannifin, a private equity firm, agreed to purchase Circor's Aerospace division in May for $2.6 billion. This division makes actuation- and landing-gear system. The majority of transactions have involved strategic buyers and private-equity firms that acquired midsized or smaller suppliers. Janes Capital data shows that the 154 deals announced between August and September (excluding the GE deal) had a combined value of $14 Billion, compared to 157 deals worth $37.5 Billion in total last year. The number of deals peaked in 2019 at 159, with a value of $21.3billion. In 2020, the pandemic caused a drop to 82 transactions worth $3.3billion. In 2015, 106 transactions totaled a value of $59.4 billion. BOEING STABILIZES PRODUCTION Boeing's jetliner delivery numbers have fluctuated dramatically over the past few years due to several crises. They fell from 806 in 2018, to 157 by 2020. The company recovered to 528 by 2023, but production quality problems caused them to drop to 348 in the following year. Boeing's 737 -MAX, its best seller, has been stabilized under a new CEO. The company also increased output to give suppliers a better view of the future demand. Boeing delivered 600 jets in 2018, the most since 2018. It is on course to exceed that number this year. Airbus' production also dropped during the pandemic, but has steadily increased since. It plans to deliver 870 aircraft this year, surpassing its previous record of 863 jets in 2019. Anita Antenucci is the founder of 3Wire Partners, an investment bank. Bankers also said that a backlog of sellers are coming to the market. Private equity firms held on to their portfolio companies for much longer than usual due to the pandemic's production swings. Stephen Perry, managing Director at Janes Capital said: "Either you or a buyer had no idea how much revenue your company would generate." Buyers are more confident in pricing future performance of a target as?build rates and their trajectory become more predictable -- even with the backdrop of Boeing's well documented struggles. This calculus was played out last year, when France's DEMGY entered Boeing's supply chains by acquiring Tool Gauge. Tool Gauge is a mid-sized family-owned supplier of interior parts for jetliners. Boeing was still trying to stabilize production, when DEMGY started looking at Tool Gauge. This company is located in Tacoma, Washington near Boeing's plant for the 737. Mike Walter, the president of DEMGY North American operations, explained that DEMGY had bet on Boeing's future and, by acting early, largely avoided any bidding wars for?Tool Gauge. Sometimes, when you see a chance, you must take it. He said, "We saw an opportunity." He refused to reveal the purchase price. DEMGY's global revenue in 2025 was EUR125 million. Dealmakers say that the competition for small suppliers has increased, in part due to an increase in interest from private equity firms. Susan Kasa, a small machine shop with a few dozen workers outside Springfield, Massachusetts, said she now receives "two to three calls a day" from prospective buyers. The owner of Boulevard Machine in Springfield, Massachusetts has a few dozen employees and receives "two to three phone calls per day" from potential buyers. Kasa explained that her highly-trained workforce, a rare commodity in an industry struggling with labor shortages, is one of the reasons her company is so attractive to potential buyers.
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Russian forces hit Kyiv petrol station, injuring four
On Thursday, the oil company Ukrnafta and Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that Russian forces had attacked a petrol pump?in Kyiv for the first time. Four people were injured. Emergency services said that the attack on a petrol station in southwest Kyiv caused a fire to break out, destroyed at least one car, and ignited a nearby building. There is no military purpose for such strikes. Bohdan Kukura, CEO of Ukrnafta, said on Facebook that the strikes were a form of terror and intimidation against civilians. Kyiv, and its suburbs have been under a constant barrage of jet-powered drones for nearly two weeks. In recent months, Russia attacked approximately 300 Ukrainian petrol station, mainly in the frontline eastern areas, in an attempt to disrupt the logistics of?Ukraine’s military. Late August, Russian forces disabled and attacked an oil depot located in the Kyiv area. Ukraine also targeted Russian fuel 'logistics' with drone strikes against petrol stations, fuel tanks and railway fuel infrastructure, in Russian-occupied regions, as well oil refineries across Russia, causing fuel supply shortages. Early in the war, Russian forces destroyed Ukraine's main oil?depots? and fuel storage facilities?. This triggered a fuel crisis that forced Ukraine to overhaul its logistics.
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Nigeria warns investors about losing their permits if they invest in flare-gas
Nigeria's oil regulator warned investors developing projects on gas-flaring site that they?risk losing their permits if stalling progress, signaling a tougher push? to halt?routine flaming by 2030. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has said that it will review awarded sites after a year and may revoke them if progress is not satisfactory. NUPRC's Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Ekpo said, "One year after a?award?has been awarded, the Commission will conduct an evaluation to determine?whether there have been significant progress." She added that "where there is not enough progress, the Commission will take the appropriate regulatory actions, including revocation of awards where necessary." Nigeria has accelerated the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme, an initiative that aims to capture and market gas that would have otherwise been burned at oil production sites. This will reduce emissions while creating economic value. Eyesan stated that 27 of 43 gas-flaring sites identified as part of the programme have been awarded to investors, with project development underway. Nigeria has 215 trillion cubic foot of?proven natural gas reserves. This is among the world's largest. Gas is seen as an important transition fuel to power generation and industrial growth. Eyesan stated that stronger enforcement would ensure that awarded projects?translate?into investments, jobs, and emission reductions instead of remaining dormant.
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Marine fuel supply squeeze eases as the market adjusts to prolonged Hormuz disruption
Industry sources told the APPEC industry meeting on Thursday that the market has been able to work around the earlier'supply shocks'. In a panel at the conference, Rishi Nyati said, "We do not see any problems with sourcing bunkers today and putting them on board." Nyati said that there is currently no shortage of marine fuel or bunkers in the major shipping hubs, as opposed to March and April. However, he added that refuelling prices have risen. According to data from the market, as of this week outright prices for mainstay VLSFO fuel oil, in Singapore, which is the world's biggest bunkering hub?are more than 60% higher than pre-war levels. Prices have been volatile for the last six months, after the U.S. & Israel attacked Iran late in February. Prices have risen since March, but they are now lower than the record highs. Max Tay is Asia's heavy product trading manager at Repsol. Tay, in a panel discussion on the same topic, said: "There are disruptions of supply out of the Strait of Hormuz. But there are alternative sources of supply we can obtain." Tay explained that the challenge is the inability to secure blending stocks for marine fuels which meet certain specifications?for specific buyers and markets. Tay estimates that the bunker activity in the port of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates, which is another major ship-refuelling hub has returned to approximately 40% of its pre-war level, while bunkering at Singapore has remained steady since the start of the war. Emarat's Nyati informed the panel that despite the tensions, some oil is still being transported through the Strait of Hormuz. "Hormuz?is not closed. "There are between 10 and 15 transits both ways," said Nyati. He was referring to the daily transits by cargo vessels through the Omani Corridor on the southern side. He said, "There's oil flowing."
Ryanair's O'Leary accuses UK Air Traffic Control boss of lying about outage
Michael O'Leary, the Chief Executive of Ryanair, accused the head of Britain's Air Traffic Control Operator of lying about an outage that led to thousands of canceled flights earlier this week.
O'Leary stated that NATS had informed Ryanair that the outage is caused by an errant flight plan. This was the same problem which caused a major disruption to the airline in 2023.
NATS CEO Martin Rolfe told BBC Radio that he believes the latest outage was caused by "something else" than previous incidents.
O'Leary has called on Rolfe repeatedly to resign. He rejected this explanation.
"NATS has?told me it was another rogue plan. O'Leary said that Martin Rolfe has denied it. "I think he is lying to save himself."
NATS' investigation into the 2023 -outage revealed that it was caused by an "one in fifteen million" event, in which two identically-named but separate waypoints were included in a flight plan. This forced both the system and the backup into "failsafe" mode.
NATS responded to a similar comment made by O'Leary Wednesday. It said that the 'latest outage' was caused by a completely different issue. It did not respond immediately to a comment request on O'Leary's recent remarks.
Ryanair has sued NATS at the London High Court for more than PS7 million ($9.5million) in relation to the 2023 outage. The operator is being urged to reinvest the profits into?performance improvement and staffing.
Rolfe has been given a week by the government to investigate the latest system failure.
Heidi Alexander, the Transport Minister who called Rolfe to a meeting about the incident on Wednesday, said she thought 'the outage could have been avoided and asked Civil Aviation Authority for an independent review.
(source: Reuters)