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Maguire, R.O., "China's changing primary energy mix by 2060"
China is the largest producer of goods and raw materials in the world. It is also the largest consumer of electricity and power worldwide. But aggressive policies aimed at boosting clean energy production and reducing emission will lead to a radical retooling in China's energy mix over the next decades. It will go from being mainly fossil fuel-based, to mostly clean-powered, by mid-century. Six charts show how China's primary mix of energy - including the use by its power sector, industries and households - will evolve from now until 2060 based on DNV's data. CLEAN POWER DRIVE China has led the world in clean energy growth for over a decade. It is expected to double its output of clean energy within the next 25-30 years. DNV's projections show that clean power sources will provide close to 75% China's energy by 2060. By 2060, China is expected to increase its output of solar power, wind energy and nuclear energy by over 450%. China will drastically reduce its coal dependence over the same period. China currently uses coal to generate 55% of its primary energy. By 2060, this will drop to less than 10%. FOSSIL-CLEAN FLIP BY LATE 2040'S By 2046, China will switch from being primarily dependent on fossil fuels to a clean energy-based energy mix. Even if the switch is made over several decades, it will still be an extreme move. Fossil fuels account for around 85% (or more) of China's primary energy supply. Electric vehicles are already outselling combustion engines, and China is electrifying its homes, offices, and factories at an unprecedented rate. China's energy transformation efforts will accelerate in the 2030s and 2020s as it continues to shutter outdated fossil fuel power stations, while scaling up clean generation sources across the country. NUCLEAR RISE Nuclear power is expected to be the fastest growing source of clean energy in China from now until 2040. Nuclear generation will increase by an average of 56% by 2040. This is from 4,775 petajoules to almost 18,000 petajoules. This growth rate is higher than the projected growth of solar power (53%), and wind energy (50%) over the same time period. COAL CUTS As China's energy system increases its clean energy supply, it is expected that China will continue to reduce the fossil fuel production system. Data from DNV shows that coal is expected to have the greatest total decline in generation by 2060. It will go from 101,000 petajoules around 2025 down to 13,000 petajoules around 2060. The energy generated by crude oil and gas will also be on a steep decline by 2060 as more vehicles are electrified, and power systems are primarily powered by renewables, batteries, and nuclear reactors. Global Share Impact China is the largest producer and consumer of energy in the world. The projected changes to China’s primary energy production mix will have far-reaching implications, particularly for energy products exporters. China is the world's largest coal producer, consumer, and importer. It currently generates around 60% of primary energy from coal. Indonesia, for example, will find it difficult to find new markets as the country reduces its coal dependence in the next two decades. Data from DNV shows that global coal consumption will not disappear by 2060. Even China, which currently accounts for 40% of global coal usage, is expected to continue doing so. China's share in global crude oil and natural gas energy consumption is also expected to decrease from current levels by the year 2060. The country's overall fossil energy share for primary energy will be reduced from 30% to 15%. China's share in global solar and wind energy generation will decline as these technologies are more widely deployed. As China builds up its nuclear fleet, it is expected that China's share in global nuclear power generation will more than double from 16% to 36%. China will continue to lead the world in clean energy production through 2060 and its share will increase from 21% to 26%. China's energy emissions footprint will also change dramatically in the next few years, as its energy mix changes. According to DNV data, China is expected to emit around 13,2 gigatons CO2 in 2025. This is about 34% of the global fossil fuel emission. China's fossil-fuel emissions will be around 2,5 gigatons by 2060. This is 17% of global total. It shows that China's impending shift in power mix will have an impact not only on the country's producers, but global pollution trends as well. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and analysis. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on You can find us on LinkedIn.
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Special Report-Iran and Russia, as well as the New Zealand insurance company that ensured their oil flowed despite sanctions
The tanker Yug left the Chinese port Qingdao last Christmas after unloading 2,000,000 barrels of Iranian oil sanctioned by the United Nations. A vessel carrying Russian crude oil shook through the icy waters of the Arctic on its way to India. Six thousand miles from Malaysia, a third vessel unloaded its Iranian oil cargo. Three tankers were owned by different companies, operated by different people and had different clients. They all shared one thing, however: A small insurer with headquarters in New Zealand that was backed by some of world's largest reinsurance companies. Paul Rankin, 75, and his family run Maritime Mutual. It has been insuring tugboats, ferries, and cargo ships for more than 20 years. Maritime Mutual also assisted in the trade of tens billions of dollars worth of Iranian and Russian crude oil by providing the vessels with the insurance needed to enter ports. This was according to a review thousands of shipping records and insurance records. It also included hundreds of oil transactions and sanctions designations as well as interviews with over two dozen people who knew the company. The shadow fleet is a group of tankers who transport banned cargoes out of countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. They conceal their trade by using fake documents, locations and names. Maritime Mutual’s insurance coverage played a vital role in helping the dark fleet – as it is also known – to operate despite the sanctions designed to stop Iran from raising funds for anti-Western militias in the Middle East, and drain Russia’s war chest to fight the conflict in Ukraine. Reporting reveals that at one point, the company, whose primary business Maritime Mutual Insurance Association is based in a dark gray office building in Auckland has insured almost one out of six shadow fleet tankers sanctioned and sanctioned from Western governments such as the United States. David Tannenbaum, former U.S. Treasury sanction specialist and director of Blackstone Compliance Services, commented on the findings. "The numbers are bigger than many of the dark-fleet actors that we follow who are majors in their businesses," said David Tannenbaum, director of sanctions consultancy Blackstone Compliance Services and a former U.S. Treasury sanctions specialist. Lloyd's List, a shipping magazine, reported previously that Maritime Mutual had covered a few tankers who had evaded sanction and revealed some details about its ownership and corporate structures. This is the first report to show the extent of shadow fleet use of Maritime Mutual, and the Western companies who support it by providing reinsurance to cover potential huge payouts. New Zealand, in collaboration with Australia, Britain, and the United States, is investigating Maritime Mutual because they are concerned that it could have enabled the violation and failure of sanctions, and that the company failed to meet their obligations to prevent money laundering and terrorism funding. This investigation was not previously reported. In a letter to Maritime Mutual, the company said that it "categorically denied" any conduct that violated international sanctions. It maintains a "zero tolerance policy" for sanction breaches, and operates under "rigorous standards of compliance designed to ensure full compliance with all applicable laws and regulation". Maritime Mutual has not commented on the New Zealand investigation. Rankin, founder of the company, and his family did not respond to requests for comments. Police search for maritime mutual offices A second person familiar with the investigation confirmed that police in New Zealand conducted a search of Maritime Mutual's premises on 16 October as part of an investigation into alleged violations of Russian sanctions. A person claimed that officers from the Financial Crime Group seized documents and files during searches of Maritime Mutual offices and residences in Auckland, Christchurch and Auckland. The police said that they had questioned three individuals, but there have not been any criminal charges filed. The three individuals' identities could not be determined. Maritime Mutual confirmed that police entered their Auckland office on 16 October. In a statement dated October 21, Maritime Mutual's New Zealand Branch said that its board had resolved the day before to not provide coverage for any vessels identified by shipping intelligence providers Windward or Lloyd's List to be in the shadow fleet nor for any vessel transporting Russian oil or refined petrol products. The MMIA said that all of its activities were in compliance with the sanctions, and it took the decision because tankers require a disproportionate amount time for management and compliance. Sanctions are violated when services, such as insurance, are provided to a vessel on a Western blacklist. Many Western governments forbid the provision of services to enable the sale and transport of banned Russian or Iranian oil products even if the ship itself hasn't been sanctioned. Maritime Mutual did not come to any conclusions independent about the legality or otherwise of its activities. Maritime Mutual had previously stated that it uses a detailed due diligence and onboarding procedure to screen shipowners, ultimate beneficial owner and vessels before granting insurance. The contract conditions, it said, require that any ship or owner found to be in violation of sanctions immediately loses coverage. I was unable contact the owner and operator of the Yug (formerly known as Mur) via email. Maritime Mutual was not mentioned by government officials in Russia or Iran. Russia has claimed that Western sanctions are illegal, and Vladimir Putin has praised Moscow's success at circumventing these sanctions. The company's operations are not fully reflected in the examination of Maritime Mutual. The news agency was unable to identify the hundreds of tanks it claims it covers. Maritime Mutual, unlike most of its competitors, does not provide a means for the public check if a vessel has a cover. Maritime Mutual does not share this information with other major providers of shipping data, such as S&P Global Market Intelligence or Lloyd's List Intelligence. Maritime Mutual has not commented on why it does not list the vessels that it insures, or share data with data providers. Also, Maritime Mutual could not determine which clients it may have dropped because they were deemed to be in violation of sanctions. It refused to give a list of all vessels for whom cover had been terminated. DEAD IN WATER WITHOUT INSURANCE Maritime Mutual’s protection and indemnity policy, also known as the main insurance product offered by Maritime Mutual, does not cover either the vessel itself or its cargo. The ship and its owner are covered in the event that damage is accidentally caused to property, people or the environment. P&I insurance for small tankers may cost as much as tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. However, according to industry sources, it can be more than $200,000 per vessel for large and old vessels depending on the age, size, and owner of the ship. Tannenbaum says that P&I coverage is essential for shadow fleet vessels. He said that without P&I insurance, shadow fleet vessels are dead in the waters. Even Iranian and Russian ports won't allow uninsured vessels to enter their waters. During an investigation published in January into the movement of Iranian crude oil around the globe, Maritime Mutual first discovered shipping documents that showed it had insured tankers transporting sanctioned petroleum. It is not possible to provide a full list of clients. The list was compiled using a number of sources, including emails leaked from Iranian oil traders revealing their insurers; Russian port data and customs; company documents and shipping databases. The list was shared with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based think tank that tracks the energy industry. CREA found that out of 231 vessels examined, 130 were carrying energy products from Iran or Russia after sanctions had been imposed against Tehran in November 2018, and Moscow in December 2020. CREA, using commercial databases on individual oil trades as well as historical crude prices, calculated that vessels insured by Maritime Mutual shipped at least 18.2 billion dollars of Iranian oil and other energy products. They also estimated that $16.7 billion worth of Russian energy goods were transported since the sanctions went into effect. Maritime Mutual often covered 30 or more oil tankers that were transporting Iranian and Russian products in a single day. On April 1, 2020, there were 41. CREA's calculations using the same databases. Maritime Mutual has not commented on CREA figures. The insurer stated that it obtained attestations in its statement to ensure vessels transporting Russian oil were compliant with Western sanctions. It said that "there is no cover for any ships which operate in a manner which does not comply with all applicable sanction regimes, or exposes MMIA in any other way to sanctions risks." This included the vessels mentioned in your inquiry, as well any vessel transporting Iranian oil. Maritime Mutual has not responded to requests for copies of attestations. On October 15, the company announced that all of its insurance quotes now include a specific sanction warranty requiring clients ensure vessels are operated "in full compliance" with applicable sanctions regimes. This language was found in an insurance certificate for a ship dated March 2025, but it wasn't in documents similar to those issued in 2022 and 2023 or in January 2024. BLACKLISTED BY WEST Maritime Mutual told the public in April that it insures 6,000 vessels. Tankers, which are vessels that carry liquid cargoes like crude oil, accounted for about 8% of this total. This is about 480 tanks. The review revealed that many of the vessels covered by Maritime Mutual are sanctioned now. Pole Star Global, an intelligence and data company specializing in maritime matters, reports that the United States, European Union, and other countries sanctioned 621 tankers from shadow fleets as of July 31. Using Lloyd's List Intelligence Seasearcher, and the official sanctions databases, we identified 97 tanks under sanctions which had Maritime Mutual insurance, including 48 who were covered by Maritime Mutual on the day that they were blacklisted. It was not possible to determine if the remaining tankers had been insured by the company at the time they were blacklisted. Maritime Mutual, when asked to comment on these findings, said that it had canceled coverage for 92 ships since 2022 due to sanctions. Maritime Mutual refused to give a complete list of all the tankers they had insured. Washington sanctioned a tanker Fenghuang owned by a Hong Kong-based company on 24 February 2025. The data revealed that exactly a week after arriving in the port of Nakhodka in eastern Russia, the ship formerly called the Phoenix I declared it was covered by Maritime Mutual. Maritime Mutual stated that it began insuring Fenghuang's tanker on February 14, 2025 and cancelled coverage 10 days after the vessel was sanctioned. Maritime Mutual's policies, as is common for marine insurers of all types, contain a clause that prohibits coverage of claims and members who put the insurer in danger by violating sanctions, according to their rule book. In a statement to Maritime Mutual, the company said that insurance coverage will be automatically canceled if a vessel is deemed sanctioned. Maritime Mutual covered at least one of their vessels for 61 companies, either directly or through affiliates. 61 of these companies were hit by sanctions while Maritime Mutual covered at least one vessel. According to Russian port data, seven out of the eight tankers that were blacklisted declared having Maritime Mutual Insurance. According to Russian port data, one of them, the Sunsea (formerly known as Chembulk-Tortola), reported that it had a Maritime Mutual Insurance policy which began several months after the sanctions were imposed. Maritime Mutual stated that it began covering the Sunsea on May 20, 2023, over two months after Washington sanctioned it, due to an error in administration. The policy was cancelled when the error was discovered one month later. It was either impossible to contact the owners and operators, the Fenghuang (formerly the Minerva Zenia), or they didn't respond to emails. Maritime Mutual refused to disclose details about the tankers that it insured. This made it impossible to verify every Maritime Mutual policy. Many of the policies identified by were expired and could not be checked as the official shipping registry databases did not allow access to expired policies. The news agency, however, was able check the validity seven documents issued by shipping registries that confirmed Maritime Mutual's insurance coverage for the vessels. According to official databases of the registries, all were genuine. Western sanctions don't prohibit the export of Russian oil as long as it is sold below a certain price cap. The cap, originally set at $60 per barrel by 2022, was reduced to $47.60 in September by the majority of Western governments. The cap was designed to limit Russia’s Ukraine war fund while ensuring reliable supplies of Russian oil in order to prevent a spike in global energy costs. Maritime Mutual could not determine with certainty whether the cap was breached by each Russian cargo that was shipped by a tanker covered by Maritime Mutual. Documents and government databases revealed that 30 tankers blacklisted for carrying Russian cargoes above the cap were covered by Maritime Mutual on the date they were blacklisted. Maritime Mutual said that before its announcement on October 21, that it would no longer cover ships that carry Russian oil products, it carefully evaluated any vessel carrying Russian oil and obtained the necessary attestations to ensure it was in compliance with G7 oil prices cap. According to the guidance regarding the Russian price cap, insurers must obtain attestations from parties involved in each oil transaction stating that they have complied. Industry insiders claim that ensuring clients follow sanctions rules can be a difficult task. Neil Roberts is the chair of the International Union of Marine Insurance Policy Forum. He said that underwriters are relying on the clients' word and cannot know the contract price. A senior manager of a major broker said that companies may be required to hire teams "to continuously monitor each and every one of our several thousand ships." Global Fishing Watch (a non-profit organization that monitors human activities at sea) reports that vessels covered by Maritime Mutual and carrying Iranian or Russian crude oil often try to conceal their movements. The analysis found 274 instances where ships insured by Maritime Mutual switched off their automatic identification system (AIS), which signals their location or manipulated it in order to send false tracking data - a common tactic known as spoofing - used by crews to camouflage their activities. Maritime Mutual did not comment on Global Fishing Watch's analysis. Bjorn Bergman is an analyst at Global Fishing Watch. He said: "It's surprising that a company in a country that cooperates with U.S. sanctions and European sanctions, insures so many vessels spoofing positions." International Maritime Organization (IMO) of the U.N. requires that large vessels traveling internationally use AIS. However, there are some safety exceptions. Bergman explained that enforcement is left to individual countries who register ships. REINSURERS RISK SANCTIONS Maritime Mutual, like other protection and indemnity insurances, spreads the risk that high payouts will result from accidents by reinsurance. Reinsurance is a system whereby insurance companies give a portion their profits to another insurer in exchange for assistance covering claims. According to guidelines published by Western governments, reinsurers must comply with sanctions. Waleed Tahirkheli is the managing partner of Eldwick Law in London, a firm that specializes in sanctions. He said that Maritime Mutual's reinsurance companies could be subject to enforcement measures if their P&I policies cover ships that violate sanctions. Brokers who assist Maritime Mutual in arranging reinsurance could also face enforcement measures. Maritime Mutual's site states that it is re-insured by Lloyd's of London members, which is one of the largest insurance markets in the world, with over 50 members. According to those familiar with the reinsurance industry, Lloyd's members that have reinsured Maritime Mutual are the largest reinsurer in the world, Germany's Munich Re Group and its German counterpart Hannover Re as well as Britain's MS Amlin, Atrium and MS Amlin. Aon, a major British-American insurer, and Lockton of America have acted as Maritime Mutual’s brokers. A person with direct experience in the industry confirmed this. Atrium has confirmed that it reinsures Maritime Mutual. Aon, the broker, also confirmed that Maritime Mutual is a customer. MS Amlin stated that it reinsured Maritime Mutual, but terminated the relationship without giving details. Hannover Re refused to comment on specific clients. It stated that it was committed to complying international sanctions, and had clauses in their contracts which prevented coverage for any sanctioned entity. Arabella Ramage - legal and regulatory director of Lloyd's Market Association - declined to comment on Maritime Mutual's reinsurance via Lloyd's. She stated that Lloyd's does not have the authority to regulate reinsurance companies or access their contracts or sanctions screening systems. Both Munich Re and Lloyd's of London declined to comment. Lockton stated that it takes its obligations to comply with sanctions very seriously, but was unable to comment on specific clients. WOOING IRAN Rankin established Maritime Mutual in Auckland, New Zealand, in 2004. He is a marine insurance veteran. According to a U.S. diplomatic leak, Japan accused Maritime Mutual of insuring North Korean vessels the following year. According to a cable, Rankin informed a New Zealand official that the company no longer insures North Korean vessels. WikiLeaks published both cables. Maritime Mutual has not commented on the contents of these U.S. cable. The North Korean mission at the United Nations, in New York, did not respond when asked for a comment. The Japanese transport ministry has said that it did not take any special measures against this company. The Maritime Mutual Group is a family affair. According to the website, LinkedIn, and social media profiles of the company, two of Rankin’s daughters, Claire, and Sarah, as well as a son-in law, Steven Joyce are among its staff. Rankin, Agnes his wife, Claire, and Joyce are directors of Maritime Management Administration Services. This company is registered in British filings under the name Maritime Pacific Insurance Services. No one from the Rankin Family responded to our requests for comment. Six people familiar with the company said that Maritime Mutual's initial business was dominated by insuring smaller ships and older vessels at lower premiums compared to large P&I companies, who are known in the industry as "clubs". Since then, the company's focus has changed. Eight sources in the shipping industry familiar with Maritime Mutual have said that it is placing a portion of its business on shadow fleets. Maritime Mutual is affiliated with two companies in Dubai, MME Services (Maritime Mutual Services) and Maritime Reinsurance (Maritime Reinsurance). Three people have confirmed that the company performs a large part of its shadow fleet operations in Dubai. The Emirati authorities have not responded to our request for comment. In 2016, two year before U.S. president Donald Trump reimposed the sanctions on Iran, Maritime Mutual – dubbed by some customers as "New Zealand P&I Club" – was wooing Iranian businesses. On the website of Iranian shipping company Shiraz Marine, a Maritime Mutual slide show from that year highlighted the insurer's New Zealand office and its decades of experience. Shiraz Marine was given "authority to promote the Association’s interests in the Islamic Republic of Iran" and to introduce members to be insured by Maritime Mutual, with effect as of January 23, 2017. This is according to a note on Shiraz Marine’s website that bears the Maritime Mutual Logo and Rankin’s signature. Shiraz Marine has not responded to any emails requesting comment. Trump reimposed U.S. oil sanctions against Iran in November 2018. Maritime Mutual saw its revenues soar as Western countries attempted to choke off Iran's oil exports and later, Russian ones. According to New Zealand company filings, its insurance sales increased 9.5% per year on average from 2011 to 2018. This amounted to $14.2 million. After the U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran in 2019, its revenue increased by 41% per year, on average. It reached $108.5 million at the end of last year. In 2023, after the Russian sanctions had been imposed for a full year, revenue growth reached a peak of 60%. Iran's oil sales also soared to $42 Billion in that year, near the levels prior to sanctions taking effect, according U.S. Energy Information Administration estimations. Shiraz Marine, a shipping company in Iran, posted on Instagram in Farsi that it is the "official representative" of the New Zealand P&I Club (MMI) for Iran. Maritime Mutual strongly denied that it actively sought shadow fleet business in response to questions. The company said that the significant increase in large ships covered by the firm after reinsurers removed restrictions on vessel size was a major driver of its revenue growth in 2019. Maritime Mutual did not pay any insurance claims to sanctioned ships or their owners or to vessels that carried Russian or Iranian oil products. NEW ZEALAND LAUNCHES AN INVESTIGATION Maritime Mutual was not under the jurisdiction of New Zealand’s insurance regulators for two decades because it did not have a license to sell insurance to New Zealanders or any other entities based in that country. On October 8, 2024 an email from a member in the maritime industry of New Zealand was delivered to the central bank governor. The email asked for the regulator to investigate Maritime Mutual, because it was using New Zealand as a "facade of respectability" to give the company a good image. The bank responded a day after: "Acknowledging reception." The team will keep you informed." The exchange was shown under the condition that the sender of the email would not be revealed. Sources with direct knowledge of this investigation have confirmed that the central bank is investigating Maritime Mutual because they are concerned it could have allowed the violation of sanctions and failed to take the appropriate measures to guard against terrorism funding. They also believe Maritime Mutual may be misrepresenting itself as a regulated insurance company in New Zealand. Maritime Mutual has not commented on the investigation, or the concerns raised by the authorities. In February 2024, New Zealand joined the Western Coalition to enforce the Russian price cap. New Zealand may not specifically target Iranian oil, but it has reimposed sanctions against Tehran this month, which requires anyone who deals with Iran to be vigilant. This includes the oil sector. A spokesperson for New Zealand’s Foreign Minister said that it would not disclose details of alleged noncompliance with Russian sanction, but confirmed that agencies were working with Maritime Mutual in "regulatory issues". The Foreign Ministry said that it expects all New Zealanders to comply with the law, no matter where they are located or what services they offer. The central bank's spokesperson declined to comment about its enforcement activities. According to a person who has direct knowledge of the investigation, investigators in New Zealand work with international partners including Australia, Britain, and the United States. Requests for comments were not responded to by the U.S. Treasury or its Office of Foreign Assets Control (the agency that enforces economic and trade sanctions on Iran and Russia). The U.S. Department of Justice, as well as the European Union, declined to comment. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade confirmed that it was aware of the concerns regarding Maritime Mutual, but declined to comment on matters of sanctions compliance. The British Treasury refused to respond when asked if they were investigating Maritime Mutual. The Treasury refused to provide information about Maritime Mutual’s compliance with UK sanctions against Iran and Russia. The release of this information could have a negative impact on Britain's relationship with other countries and members of the coalition that enforces the Russian price cap. The disclosure could provide some context as to the extent of Russian and Iranian sanctions being evaded. The British Treasury stated that "releasing the information could aid criminals in their intent to circumvent or evade." The company did not provide any further information.
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Russia tests a second version of the MC-21 jet using domestic components
The Russian industry ministry announced on Tuesday that the country has successfully flown a prototype of its MC-21 passenger jet, which is built from domestic components. Sanctions on foreign components have halted production, and high interest rates are putting a damper on investment. The Russian aircraft industry was able to overcome these obstacles and deliver only one of the 15 jets that were planned for this calendar year by August. According to images posted by the Industry Ministry on Telegram on Tuesday, the MC-21 took flight from the Irkutsk Aviation Plant operated by Yakovlev. United Aircraft Corp is a subsidiary of state conglomerate Rostec. The ministry said that the flight tests were conducted using new Russian-made systems onboard and PD-14 turbofans, rather than earlier prototypes which combined Russian and other components. The MC-21 is a jet that can carry about 175 passengers and has a two-class layout. It will be used to replace the Western aircraft Airbus or Boeing, which Russian airlines are unable to service due to sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A Russian aviation source said in August that the version of the MC-21 made with imported parts is lighter than the original, which was heavier and had a limited range. This made airlines more cautious. Since Rostec, the company that oversees the production of Superjet-100s, Tupolev Tu-214s, Ilyushins, and the new Yakovlev MC-21s, announced that Russia will produce its own passenger aircrafts, delivery dates have been repeatedly pushed back. The first deliveries of the MC-21 will be made at the end 2026. Rostec plans to increase production to 36 a day by 2030. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Melbourne)
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Urals are stable, but clarity is needed on the impact of new Western sanctions
The differential between dated Brent and Urals crude remained unchanged on Monday as buyers of both grades awaited clarity about the impact of new Western sanctions on Russian oil imports. Last week, the European Union (EU), Britain and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia, including those affecting its two largest oil producers, Lukoil, and Rosneft. The U.S. gave companies until November 21, 2011 to end their transactions with Russian oil producers. Four sources familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ is likely to increase output modestly in December as it continues with its monthly increases aimed at regaining market share. PLATTS WINDOW There were no bids or offers reported for Urals, Azeri BTC Blend or CPC blend crude in the Platts window. Government data released on Monday showed that India's crude imports increased 1.7% from September to 19,93 million metric tonnes, the highest level since June. (Reporting from ;)
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China's Foreign Minister speaks with Rubio before Trump-Xi Meeting
China hopes that the United States will meet them halfway in order to "prepare high-level interaction" between the countries. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this during a telephone call with U.S. Sec. of State Marco Rubio on Monday. Wang stated that Xi Jinping, Chinese president, and Donald Trump, U.S. president have had "long-standing relations and exchanges", according to the Ministry. Wang called Xi's relationship with Trump "the most important strategic asset" in China-U.S. relationships. The call was made ahead of a meeting that is expected to take place between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump on Thursday in South Korea, on the sidelines the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit. The Chinese transcript of the call on Monday did not confirm that the two will meet. However, the White House had previously stated they would. In a brief statement, the U.S. State Department stated that Rubio spoke with Wang about the "importance" of the U.S. China relationship and their upcoming summit. However, the department did not provide any further details. The two countries' negotiators met in Malaysia over the weekend to work out a framework deal that the presidents can consider. This included issues such as soybeans and TikTok. In recent weeks, there has been an increase in trade friction between two of the largest economies of the world. Beijing expanded its control over rare earths and Washington imposed additional port fees for Chinese ships. This sparked a wave mutual countermeasures. According to a statement from the Chinese Ministry, Wang stated that "China-U.S. economic and trade relations have experienced some twists." He said that during the Kuala Lumpur trade talks, "the two sides clarified and improved their understanding". Wang said that bilateral relations can progress as long as the two sides "commit to resolving conflict through dialogue and give up the practice of applying pressure at will", he added. Trump said on his way to Japan Monday that the U.S.-China trade agreement would be "completed" by then. Chinese state media reported late on Sunday that Chinese H-6K Bombers flew close to Taiwan recently in order to conduct "confrontation exercises." Rubio stated on Sunday that Taiwan shouldn't be worried about the U.S. - China talks, despite experts expressing concern that Trump could offer concessions regarding the island. Beijing claims the island as its own, and under U.S. laws Washington is required by law to provide the island with the means of self defense. Craig Singleton is a China specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank. He said that any U.S. deal with Beijing will likely only mean a temporary stabilization of relations between the two countries. Singleton stated that both sides were managing their volatility by adjusting just enough cooperation in order to avoid crisis, while the rivalry between them continues. (Reporting and editing by Xiuhao chen, Ryan Woo and Michael Martina; Toby Chopra and Hugh Lawson, Daniel Wallis and Toby Chopra)
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As the government shutdown enters its 27th day, flight delays have risen to 1,660.
The air travel chaos has intensified with over 1,660 flights nationwide delayed on Monday, and more than 8,600 on Sunday. Air traffic controllers are absent in greater numbers amid the federal government shutdown which is now in its 27th week. The Federal Aviation Administration blamed staffing shortages for delays at Newark Airport, New Jersey and throughout the Southeast. At Los Angeles International Airport, the FAA implemented a ground delay that caused flights to be delayed by 25 minutes on average. FlightAware's flight tracking website reported that Southwest Airlines was responsible for 45% of their flights, or 2,00, on Sunday. American Airlines, however, had nearly 1,200 flights, or one-third, delayed. United Airlines' flights were delayed by 24% (739) and Delta Air Lines' flights by 17% (610). An official with the U.S. Department of Transportation said that 44% of Sunday’s delays were caused by controller absences, a sharp increase from the usual 5%. Around 13,000 air traffic control officers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers will work without pay on Tuesday and miss their first full payday. The public's frustration is increasing as a result of the delays and cancellations, and lawmakers are under pressure to solve the budget impasse. (Reporting and editing by Howard Goller; David Shepardson)
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Trump dismisses a 2028 run for VP as 'too adorable,' leaving the door open to a third term discussion
U.S. president Donald Trump ruled out running as vice president for the 2028 elections but refused to say definitively that he would never seek a third-term, keeping speculation alive about his possible plans to extend his tenure in office. Trump has flirted repeatedly with the idea of serving more than the two-term limit set by the constitution. He jokes about it and teases supporters with "Trump-2028" hats. Some allies took those signals seriously and suggested that they were exploring legal or politically feasible ways to make it happen. Most constitutional scholars have dismissed this possibility. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits anyone from being elected as president of the United States a third. Some supporters suggested that a way to circumvent the ban would be for Trump run as vice-president, while another candidate ran for president and resigned. This would allow Trump to assume the presidency again. Trump told reporters on Monday that he would be allowed to fly from Malaysia to Tokyo in Air Force One. He added, "I would never do that." It's just too cute. It's just too cute. I don't think people would like it. It's just too cute. It would be wrong." Scholars claim that Trump cannot run for vice president as he's not eligible to become president. According to the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, "No one constitutionally ineligible for the office of president shall be eligible to hold that of vice-president of the United States." I have my best numbers ever Trump stated that he would be happy to serve a third term. I've got my best numbers yet." A reporter asked him if he had ruled out a third term. He replied, "No, I haven't." You'll have tell me. When asked if he was willing to go to court over the legality a second presidential run, Trump replied, "I've never really thought about it." Trump said that Vice President JDVance and Secretary Marco Rubio are "great people" and could run for the presidency in 2028. He said, "I believe if they formed a band it would be unstoppable." "I believe it. "I really do." Rubio, who was standing behind Trump on the plane, laughed and bowed down his head in shame as Trump predicted that he would have a bright future. He also nodded when Trump mentioned Vance. Trump's comments about a possible third term have clouded the future of the Republican Party. Potential successors are already jockeying for position, even though some Trump supporters support the idea that he remain in office. Steve Bannon, a pro-Trump podcaster and former White House chief strategy in Trump's first term, revealed in an interview with The Economist last week that there was a plan in place to circumvent 22nd Amendment, and that he had been involved in its development. Bannon stated that "Trump will be president in the year '28 and people should just accept this," Bannon. We'll reveal the plan at the right time. "But there is a strategy." He said that Trump is an "instrument" of the divine will, echoing words Trump has used on occasion. Trevor Hunnicutt Reporting, Satoshi Sugiyama, Jarrett Renshaw Writing, William Maclean and Colleen Jenkins Editing, Peter Graff.
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Delta Air Lines CEO: Government shutdown has a'small impact' on the airline.
Delta Air Lines' CEO stated on Monday that the U.S. Government shutdown has a "small impact" and costs it less than one million dollars a day. The shortage of airport security personnel is a greater concern. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said that the TSA (Transportation Security Administration), and the staffing of those checkpoints, is the greater concern. In the United States, there is also a shortage in air traffic controllers. The government shutdown will force 13,000 air traffic control officers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents to work without pay. The first full pay for controllers is not due until Tuesday. Air traffic control in the U.S. is already understaffed. Bastian explained that it can be difficult to distinguish between the shutdown and understaffing. Delta and the U.S. Department of Transportation are locked in a battle over the nearly nine-year old joint venture between Aeromexico. The U.S. Department of Transportation ordered that the joint venture must be ended on January 1 as part of a series of actions targeting Mexican aviation. Bastian stated that "we believe that dissolving our joint venture is not the best strategy, especially because (Antitrust Immunity)." He added that there was no time frame for a solution to the issue. He said, "We have been talking (with the Administration) for quite some time." The joint venture allows both carriers to coordinate schedules, pricing and capacities for U.S. - Mexico flights.
Texas requires more natgas pipes as rates turn unfavorable once again
Natural gas costs in the Permian shale basin in West Texas turned negative a record number of times so far in 2024, including on Wednesday, as pipeline and other constraints trap gas in the country's most significant oil-producing basin.
Area gas prices for Wednesday at the Waha center << NG-WAH-WTX-SNL > in West Texas turned unfavorable for a third time in July even as a record-breaking heatwave might boost
U.S. power demand to an all-time
high later on this week as homes and companies crank up their air conditioners. Analysts say that is a sure indication the area requires more gas
pipelines, which has actually currently prompted Kinder Morgan, Energy Transfer and other U.S. energy companies to propose brand-new projects. The only way for prices to stay in positive territory is through brand-new pipeline capability, Chad Bircher, lead quantitative analyst on North American natural gas at monetary services firm LSEG, told Reuters. There is, nevertheless, just one huge gas pipeline in fact under building in the Permian at this
time- the Matterhorn Express Pipeline -which analysts state is on track to go into service later this year. As production in the Permian Basin continues to grow and demand increases, the Matterhorn
Express Pipeline's takeaway capability supplies much required transport of gas to end markets, Matterhorn Express Pipeline spokesperson Cody McGregor informed Reuters. In the past, Matterhorn Express predicted the 490-mile (789-kilometer) pipeline capable of moving up to 2.5 billion cubic feet each day( bcfd)
of gas from the Permian to the Gulf Coast, could get in service in the 3rd quarter of 2024, however most experts now expect the job to start in the fourth quarter. Matterhorn Express is a joint venture between units of WhiteWater, EnLink Midstream, Devon Energy and MPLX, according to WhiteWater's site. The revision to the building schedule would delay by a number of months new gas volumes from the Permian and keep costs under pressure in the basin
, experts at energy consultant East Daley Analytics stated in a note. The Permian in West Texas and eastern Brand-new Mexico is the nation's most significant and fastest growing oil-producing shale basin. A great deal of gas likewise comes out of the ground with that oil. When oil costs are relatively high, like they have been this year, producers are willing to take a loss on gas due to the fact that they can still generate income offering oil. Next-day rates at the Waha averaged listed below absolutely no
22 times so far this year. Waha costs first averaged listed below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, 6 in 2020 and when in 2023. There were no unfavorable costs in 2021 or
2022( a minimum of no daily averages listed below zero )because energy firms constructed brand-new pipelines, consisting of the Permian Highway and Whistler, to move more gas out of the Permian. PROPOSED BRAND-NEW PIPES Although numerous
companies have actually proposed to build brand-new pipes in the Permian, experts have actually said 2 projects were most innovative- Kinder Morgan's 0.57-bcfd Gulf Coast growth and Energy Transfer's 1.5-bcfd Warrior. Up until now, however, neither firm has
dedicated to develop their project. Kinder Morgan informed Reuters We continue to see interest in the project and are working with potential clients. Energy Transfer had no comment beyond what they said on past incomes calls. We're not going to run out and FID( final investment decision )Warrior when we have some capacity on our existing system,
Energy Transfer co-CEO Marshall McCrea informed analysts throughout the business's first quarter profits call in May. McCrea
, nevertheless, said There remains ... strong interest in another pipeline, probably by mid to late 2026. We are really optimistic that we will construct the next pipeline to come out of West Texas. Experts anticipate Energy Transfer to have more to say about Warrior when it launches its second quarter profits on Aug. 7.
(source: Reuters)