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US West Coast refiners are still waiting for TMX to boost margins

Companies operating on the U.S. West Coast claim that Canada's expanded Trans Mountain oil pipeline (TMX), which began commercial operations in May this year, has so far had little effect on crude prices at U.S. West Coast refineries.

The expansion tripled the capacity of the pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast, to 890,000.000 barrels per days (bpd). This increased access to Canadian heavy oil for West Coast refiners, and opened a new route into Asia.

The barrels from Canada were expected to find their way into U.S. West Coast refining plants, which import crude mainly by ship.

Brian Mandell executive vice president for marketing and commercial at Phillips 66 said that most of the TMX-produced barrels were exported to Asian markets during the first three month period since TMX started operations.

Mandell told investors in a conference call last month that "about two-thirds" of the additional TMX barrels were going to Asia.

The Houston refiner announced in April that the availability of heavy barrels at lower costs from Canada will help increase earnings for its West Coast refining operations, including California and Washington.

Fuel demand is weaker than expected, and this has led to a decline in margins for independent refiners.

Phillips 66 realized margins dropped to $10.01 a barrel, down from $15.32 a barrel compared with a year ago. Marathon Petroleum's second-quarter refining margins were $17.37 per bar, down from $22.10 a year earlier. Valero Energy reported that its refining profits were 28% less than they were last year.

Many investors thought that the majority of TMX oil would be shipped to the West Coast, as shipping to Asia was more expensive and logistically difficult compared to the easily accessible U.S. markets. This was confirmed by Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng in an interview.

He added, "but it turned out this was not the case."

Cheng said that the assumption was that the new flow of crude oil will displace heavy oils imported to the West Coast by Latin America and the Middle East, allowing refineries to save on shipping charges.

Analysts had predicted that the differential between U.S. and Western Canada Select crude would slowly narrow as a result of the extra export capacity offered by TMX. The spare capacity of the pipeline failed to boost Canadian crude oil prices in the first three months.

Marathon's Los Angeles Refinery, with a 365,000 bpd capacity, is the West Coast's largest refinery. It would be the primary destination for TMX heavy sour grades.

TMX is also used by other refineries on the West Coast including Valero Benicia and Chevron El Segundo.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. West Coast is capable of producing around 2.5 million barrels per day.

Under Pressure

Executives said that refiners may see a drop in crude prices as the Canadian heavy barrels begin to compete with Alaskan North Slope and other crudes used by West Coast refining companies.

The Chief Commercial Officer of Marathon, Rick Hessling, said: "What's changed is that as more Canadian barrels come onto the market it puts pressure on ANS barrels."

General Index data shows that the average ANS price has dropped to $85 per barrel, down from $90 per barrel in April.

Gary Simmons, Valero's chief operating officer, predicted that lower ANS prices would start to reduce crude costs.

Refiners will continue to refine ANS and other crudes on the West Coast. They are testing whether the Canadian heavy sour oil will cause issues or inefficiency in the future.

Cheng, from Scotiabank, said that as you test the grade over time you will learn what natural oils to use in order to get the best yield for your configuration. This process could take several months.

(source: Reuters)