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Executives, trade and labor associations comment on Trump's reciprocal duties
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, and higher duties for some of the biggest trading partners. This could escalate a global trade war and upset the global economy. The latest responses from business executives, unions and trade associations. Companies On Holding We've noted the tariffs announced and we are continually monitoring the changing situation and policy changes. "Our global value chain and supply chain is well-positioned." GERMANY'S FRESENIUS "We... strongly support the proposal to exclude pharmaceuticals from the reciprocal tariff, as such a tariff could potentially lead to shortages of important medicines for American patients." STEEL GROUP APERAM We will examine the feasibility of moving some of our production to the U.S. if we are able to export limited quantities from the EU. The current lack of predictability in regulatory matters creates a hostile business environment both on the US and European sides. STELLANTIS The automaker announced that it would temporarily stop production in some of its Canadian assembly plants and Mexican assembly factories, including its Windsor assembly facility in Canada. ANTONIO BARAVALLE is the CEO of LAVAZZA We had planned to increase the local production (in the U.S.A.) by 100%. "We're ready to go... but there's this other element to investigate, the duties for Brasil... If they put 10% on Brazil, then the duty (of 20%) is already half. The coffee maker produces about 50% of the amount it sells locally in the U.S. FERRARI The purchase contracts for Ferraris contain standard and clear clauses that allow the company to adjust the price in the event of a change in the market conditions before the vehicle is delivered. A Ferrari spokesperson confirmed that new tariffs would also be applied to Ferrari cars that were ordered in the past but have not yet been delivered to the U.S. MOTOFUMI SHITARA, CEO, YAMAHA MOTOR "Our exports will certainly be affected." We will have to raise prices or reduce costs if these tariffs are extended over time, even for vehicles. MAERSK "We expect our customers to be more careful about their stock levels." We're likely going to see some air freight rush orders in the U.S. very soon, before the tariffs go into effect. We will also see a rise in the demand for bonded warehouses as customers want to delay clearing their goods until they have more certainty." GERRESHEIMER Tariffs are affecting primarily our exports to the U.S. from our Mexico-based plant. Injection vials are one example. We will pass on these customs fees to our customers as an additional cost. We will be able, if necessary and if customs duties remain in place for a longer period of time, to move our capacities." MASSIMO BATTAINI is the CEO of PRYSMIAN The announcement seems to have had a positive effect on the local production. The tariffs are applied to the finished products and removes any risk of U.S. producers being undercut by foreign production. ANDERS VINDEGG HEAD OF MEDIA RELATIONS, HYDRO "We work actively from Norway as well as in Brussels, the EU to inform and work actively with organisations and other initiatives that we are a part of in order to leverage the importance Norwegian aluminium for Europe." ASSOCIATIONS IPC, A Global Association for Electronics Manufacturing "We are pleased with President Trump's focus on revitalizing American defense industry, and his commitment to strengthen American manufacturing. Tariffs won't achieve this goal...Trade essential for supply-chain resilience and innovation. Tariffs will only increase costs and drive production overseas. RETAIL INDUSTRY LEADER ASSOCIATION The President's plan will not only hit the budget of every family, but also American innovation and national security. These newly announced tariffs - and the anticipated retaliatory duties on American businesses - risk destabilizing U.S. economic growth and manufacturing. EUROCOMMERCE, EUROPEAN RETAIL INDUSTRY BODGE "EuroCommerce urges the EU and U.S. Administrations to engage constructively in dialogue. In the event that negotiations fail, EU can use its legal authority to take action against unfair trade practices by a third country. The EU has a wide range of tools to help it address the situation. International Apparel Federation The announcement by the U.S. Government of high taxes on trade with the rest is a shock to the global apparel industry. This unnecessarily creates an entirely new, often irrational world that affects billions of dollars in investments and the lives and livelihoods of tens and millions of people who work in our industry worldwide. Someone will pay the price at some point." CANADIAN STEEL ASSOCATION To reduce its dependence, the Canadian Steel Industry urgently needs the adoption of border measures to address unfair trade in steel in Canada, and help recapture the Canadian Market for our industry, workers, and communities. The Spanish Association of Olive Oil Exporters This 20% is a serious disadvantage for the Spanish olive oil industry, as compared to other countries that produce olive oil but do not belong to the European Union. "98% (of the olive oil consumed by Americans) is imported, so these tariffs would result in an increased purchase price which will be paid by U.S. consumers." consumers." KEVIN C RAVEN, CEO of ADS GROUP on AEROSPACE COMPONENTS We are not sure if the exemption from all tariffs (on items classified as airworthy by regulators) is still in place and if these tariffs are applicable or not. This could make the situation worse. COPA-COGECA EU FARMING GROUPS The introduction of additional tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and drive up prices. It would also limit the market access of farmers and agricooperatives from both sides of Atlantic. This will have significant economic implications for the agricultural industry. ANTHONY BRUN, HEAD OF FRENCH GROWERS ASSOCIATION (UGVC) "One might have been frightened by much higher tariffs. However, this risk remains and is associated with a possible conflict over bourbon whisky. Already, we face tariffs from China. Now, there is the U.S. and the consequences are going to be brutal for wine growers. SIGRID de VRIES, Director General, European Automobile Manufacturers' Association "We urge both leaders to meet immediately to find a resolution to any issues that prevent free and fair trading between historical allies, and to allow the EU-US relations to flourish again." SWISS BUSINESS GROUP ECONOMISSE "We must prevent a further escalation in the trade conflict. Swiss economic diplomacy and the Federal Council are urged to find quick solutions with the U.S. Government at the negotiation table. "From an economic perspective, the U.S. tariffs on Switzerland are not comprehensible - rather the opposite." DIRK JANDURA HEAD OF GERMANY EXPORTERS ASSOCIATION (BGA) "We'll have to pass on these tariffs as price increases and this will impact turnover in many instances." It is an economic dead end that will result in welfare losses on both sides of Atlantic. Reporting by Bureax; compiled by Mrinalika, Roy, Pasquini, Alessandro, and Linda Pasquini. Editing by Alan Barona and Milla Nissi.
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Caspian Oil Pipeline Consortium prepares for court battle with Russia over stoppage orders
Three industry sources said that the Western-backed Caspian Pipeline Consortium was preparing to take on a Russian court to challenge a regulatory order which has crippled their export capabilities and threatens to cut off oil flow to global markets. After a series of inspections in response to an oil spill that occurred on the Black Sea, the Russian transport regulator ordered CPC, which includes Chevron, Exxon Mobil and others, to suspend its operations at two moorings. A court in Russia will review the decision of the regulator. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the CPC intends to contest the decision during the hearings. The CPC declined comment. Rostransnadzor did not respond to a comment request. CPC is a major oil export route in Kazakhstan. This is due to the fact that the country has exceeded its export quotas, primarily because of the production increase from the Chevron-led Tengiz Oilfield. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries have also pressed Kazakhstan to reduce production in order to meet its quotas. OPEC+ announced on Thursday that it would increase its output before the scheduled date, indicating the group's confidence in non-compliant member countries to reduce their output. Traders estimate that the CPC pipeline which transports about 1% of global oil supply could lose 50% of its capacity, if it is only allowed to use one berth. The CPC pipeline was set to export 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in April. This is approximately 6.5 millions metric tons. Therefore, more than 800,000. barrels could be lost per day. The traders also stated that the oil production of Kazakhstan, which exports 80% of the total oil through this route, will decline if these restrictions are in place for longer than a week. CPC announced this week that the restrictions would continue at the terminal until the irregularities discovered by the watchdog and which were not made public are addressed. In the past, Russia has imposed restrictions on the exports of the consortium due to bad weather and technical problems. A court in Novorossiisk, Russia, ordered CPC to stop the terminal operation for 30 days because of its documentation on oil spills. Benjamin Godwin is a partner of PRISM Strategic Intelligence in London, an investment advisory company. The pipeline is used by major energy companies in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. The restrictions were implemented after U.S. president Donald Trump expressed his displeasure with Russia for the slow pace of peace talks in Ukraine and threatened to impose secondary duties on Russian oil buyers. Tengizchevroil is Chevron's Kazakhstan-based oil venture. In an email, it stated that the company was focused on ensuring safe and reliable operations. It referred any further questions to CPC. On Wednesday, Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world, imposed further restrictions on a major oil export route. It suspended a mooring from the Black Sea port Novorossiisk, just a day after CPC's restrictions took effect. Mark Potter, David Evans and Mark Potter are responsible for reporting.
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Caspian Oil Pipeline Consortium prepares for court battle with Russia over stoppage orders
Three industry sources said that the Western-backed Caspian Pipeline Consortium was preparing to take on a Russian court to challenge a regulatory order which has crippled their export capabilities and threatens to cut off oil flow to global markets. After a series of inspections in response to an oil spill that occurred on the Black Sea, the Russian transport regulator ordered CPC, which includes Chevron, Exxon Mobil and others, to suspend its operations at two moorings. A court in Russia will review the decision of the regulator. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the CPC intends to contest the decision during the hearings. The CPC declined comment. Rostransnadzor did not respond to a comment request. CPC is a major oil export route in Kazakhstan. This is due to the fact that the country has exceeded its export quotas, mainly because of the production increase from the Chevron-led Tengiz Oilfield. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries have also pressed Kazakhstan to reduce production in order to meet its quotas. On Thursday, OPEC+ You can also find out more about the decision-making process by clicking here. To increase output ahead of schedule by signaling the group's confidence that non-compliant members will reduce output in the next few weeks. Traders estimate that the CPC pipeline which transports about 1% of global oil supply could lose 50% of its capacity, if it is only allowed to use one berth. The CPC pipeline was set to export 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in April. This is approximately 6.5 millions metric tons. Therefore, more than 800,000. barrels could be lost per day. The traders also stated that the oil production of Kazakhstan, which exports 80% of the total oil through this route, will decline if these restrictions are in place for longer than a week. CPC announced this week that the restrictions would continue at the terminal until the irregularities discovered by the watchdog and which were not made public are addressed. A court in Novorossiisk, Russia, ordered CPC to stop the terminal operation for 30 days because of its documentation on oil spills. Tengizchevroil is Chevron's Kazakhstan-based oil venture. In an email, it stated that the company was focused on safe, reliable operations. It referred any further questions to CPC. On Wednesday, Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world, also imposed restrictions on a major oil export route. It suspended a mooring from the Black Sea Port of Novorossiisk just one day after CPC restrictions went into effect. The restrictions were implemented as U.S. president Donald Trump expressed his displeasure with Russia for the slow pace of peace talks in Ukraine and threatened to impose secondary duties on Russian oil buyers. Mark Potter (Editing and Reporting)
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Executives, trade and labor associations comment on Trump's reciprocal duties
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, and higher duties for some of the biggest trading partners. This could escalate a global trade war and upset the global economy. The latest responses from business executives, unions and trade associations. Companies GERMANY'S FRESENIUS "We... strongly support the proposal to exclude pharmaceuticals from the reciprocal tariff, as such a tariff could potentially lead to shortages of important medicines for American patients." STEEL GROUP APERAM We will examine the feasibility of moving some of our production to other countries if we are able to export limited quantities from the EU into the U.S. The current lack of predictability in regulatory matters creates a hostile business environment both on the US and European sides. STELLANTIS The automaker announced that it would temporarily stop production in some of its Canadian assembly plants and Mexican assembly factories, including its Windsor assembly facility in Canada. ANTONIO BARAVALLE is the CEO of LAVAZZA We had planned to increase the local production (in the U.S.A.) by 100%. "We're ready to go... but there's this other element to investigate, the duties for Brasil... If they impose a 10% duty, then the 20% duty is already half. The coffee maker produces about 50% of the amount it sells locally in the U.S. FERRARI The purchase contracts for Ferraris contain standard and clear clauses that allow the company to adjust the price in the event of a change in the market conditions before the vehicle is delivered. A Ferrari spokesperson confirmed that new tariffs would also be applied to Ferraris ordered in the past but not delivered to the U.S. MOTOFUMI SHITARA, CEO, YAMAHA MOTOR "Our exports will certainly be affected." We will have to raise prices or reduce costs if these tariffs are extended over time, even for vehicles. MAERSK "We expect our customers to be more careful about their stock levels." We're likely going to see rush orders for air freight in the U.S. very soon, before the tariffs go into effect. We will also see an increase in the demand for bonded warehouses as customers want to delay clearing their goods until they have more certainty." GERRESHEIMER Tariffs are primarily affecting our exports to the U.S. from our Mexico-based plant. Injection vials are one example. We will pass on these customs fees to our customers as an additional cost. We will be able, if necessary and if customs duties remain in place for a longer period of time, to move our capacities. MASSIMO BATTAINI is the CEO of PRYSMIAN The announcement seems to have had a positive effect on the local production. The tariffs are applied to the finished products and removes any risk of U.S. producers being undercut by foreign production. ANDERS VINDEGG HEAD OF MEDIA RELATIONS, HYDRO "We work actively from Norway as well as in Brussels, the EU to inform and to actively work with the organizations and other measures we're part of in order to leverage the importance Norwegian aluminium for Europe." ASSOCIATIONS EUROCOMMERCE, EUROPEAN RETAIL INDUSTRY BODGE "EuroCommerce urges the EU and U.S. Administrations to engage constructively in dialogue. In the event that negotiations fail, EU can use its legal authority to take action against unfair trade practices by third-country countries. The EU has a wide range of tools to help it address the situation. International Apparel Federation The announcement by the U.S. Government of high taxes on trade with the rest is a shock to the global apparel industry. This unnecessarily creates an entirely new, often irrational world that affects billions of dollars in investments and the lives and livelihoods of tens and millions of people who work in our industry worldwide. Someone will pay the price in the end." CANADIAN STEEL ASSOCATION To reduce its dependence, the Canadian Steel Industry urgently needs the adoption of border measures to address unfair trade in steel in Canada, and help recapture the Canadian Market for our industry, workers, and communities. The Spanish Association of Olive Oil Exporters This 20% is a serious disadvantage for the Spanish olive oil industry, as compared to other countries that produce olive oil but do not belong to the European Union. "98% (of the olive oil consumed by Americans) is imported, so these tariffs would result in an increased purchase price which will be paid by U.S. consumers." consumers." KEVIN C RAVEN, CEO of ADS GROUP on AEROSPACE COMPONENTS We are not sure if the exemption from all tariffs (on items classified as airworthy by regulators) is still in place and if these tariffs are applicable or not. This could make the situation worse. COPA-COGECA EU FARMING GROUPS The introduction of additional tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and drive up prices. It would also limit the market access of farmers and agricooperatives from both sides of Atlantic. This will have significant economic implications for the agricultural industry. ANTHONY BRUN, HEAD OF FRENCH GROWERS ASSOCIATION (UGVC) "One might have been frightened by much higher tariffs. However, this risk remains and is associated with a possible conflict over bourbon whisky. Already, we face tariffs from China. Now, there is the U.S. and the consequences are going to be brutal for wine growers. ETHAN LANE SENIOR V.P. OF GOVERNMENT AFFILIATIONS, NATIONAL CATFARMERS BEEF ASSOCIATION "President Trump has taken action to remove numerous trade barriers which prevent overseas consumers from enjoying high quality, wholesome American Beef. NCBA will engage with the White House in order to optimize export opportunities and ensure fair treatment of America's beef producers worldwide. SIGRID de VRIES, DIRECTOR GENERAL, EUROPEAN MOBILE MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION "We urge both leaders to meet immediately to find a resolution to any issues that prevent free and fair trading between historical allies, and to allow the EU-US relations to flourish again." SWISS BUSINESS GROUP ECONOMISSE "Another escalation in the trade conflict is to be avoided. Swiss economic diplomacy and the Federal Council are urged to find quick solutions with the U.S. Government at the negotiation table. "From an economic perspective, the U.S. tariffs on Switzerland are not comprehensible - rather the opposite." DIRK JANDURA HEAD OF GERMANY EXPORTERS ASSOCIATION (BGA) "We'll have to pass on these tariffs as price increases and this will impact turnover in many instances." It is an economic dead end that will result in welfare losses on both sides of Atlantic. (Reporting and compilation by Bureax; edited by Alan Barona and Milla Nissi, and Alessandro Parodi.
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Reliance executive: India's diesel and gasoline demand will peak in 2035.
Reliance Industries executive said that India's gasoil consumption (diesel), which is expected to reach its peak in 2035, will continue to increase as drivers switch to cleaner fuels. India, a major driver of global oil demand, has set the goal of eliminating net carbon emissions by 2070. India will surpass China in terms of global oil consumption this year. Fuel consumption is expected to rise throughout the next decade. Energy transition is definitely on the agenda. "In our country, there isn't going to just be one fuel dominant," Harish Mehta said. Mehta, speaking at an event organized by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, said that India's transportation sector will be dominated by gaseous fuels, such as compressed natural gas and compressed Biogas, along with gasoline and gasoil. India would simultaneously have "a bouquet of energy sources, fuels for transportation and other things". Reliance operates the largest refinery complex in the world at Jamnagar, located in western Gujarat. The complex has two refineries that process about 1.4 millions barrels of crude oil per day. He expects the Indian government to continue intervening in the local fuel price to make fuels affordable for consumers and to mitigate the impact on global oil markets. A. K. Singh is the chairman of Oil and Natural Gas Corp. He said that India's oil and natural gas consumption will grow by 3-4% per year, and this requires a boost in domestic hydrocarbon production. A S Sahney said that as India's demand for energy continues to grow, state refiners will expand their capacity by around 20% over the next two-years.
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Analyst: US tariffs on corn from Ukraine could be beneficial to the country's corn
Analysts said that Ukrainian corn, which is a major component of the grain sector in Ukraine, could benefit from tariffs imposed on the U.S. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that a minimum 10% tariff would be applied to most imports. However, duties will be significantly higher on products from China and other countries. This is likely going to lead countermeasures which could drive up prices or reduce demand for U.S.-made goods. Ukraine is one of the world's largest corn producers and exporters. In a recent statement, ASAP Agri consultancy stated that "if key importers end up imposing duties on U.S. Corn, this will open a large window of opportunity for other suppliers." The Ukrainian corn market is strong: it has a competitive price, stable logistics and close links with European Union and Asian markets. The consulting firm said that Brazil was the first to be in line but it's harvest could not cover all of the demand. This is where Ukraine comes in and can claim its share. Barva Invest is another consultancy that said Ukraine views the U.S. not as a trading partner but rather an export competitor on the market for grains and oilseeds. It also stated that any counter-restrictions imposed by other countries against U.S. imports would have the biggest impact. The EU, Australia and China will most likely impose these measures. This opens strategic opportunities for Ukraine in areas where it competes with the U.S. Barva Invest told Telegram Messenger that "first of all, it is the market for corn and soybeans, and more indirectly, for rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and barley." Ukraine produced 32 metric tons in 2023, and 26 metric tons in 2024. According to the UCAB, the country is expected to export 22 million tons of corn in 2024/25. Corn export prices are high, so farmers are likely to increase corn plantings this year. Ukraine harvested a record-breaking 6.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024, and about half of that volume could be export this season. Ukraine's soybean crop in 2025 Could be The final volume of the crop will be determined by the amount of rain that falls in May and/or June. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Chizu Omiyama and Ed Osmond
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Analyst: US tariffs on corn from Ukraine could be beneficial to the country's corn
Analysts at ASAP Agri said that Ukrainian corn could be a beneficiary of tariffs levied by the U.S. Ukraine is one of the world's largest corn exporters and growers. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would impose a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. imported goods, and significantly higher duties for goods from China. This is likely to lead to countermeasures which could drive up prices or reduce demand for U.S. products. ASAP Agri stated in a press release that "if key importers end up imposing duties on U.S. Corn, this will open a large window of opportunity for other suppliers." The Ukrainian corn market is strong: it has a competitive price, stable logistics and close links with European Union and Asian markets. According to the consultancy, Brazil was "first in line" but that its harvest could not cover all demand. That is where Ukraine can "step in and claim their share". Ukraine will produce 32 million metric tonnes of corn in 2023, and 26 million in 2024. According to the UCAB, the country is expected to export 22 million tons of corn in 2024/25. Corn export prices are high, so farmers are likely to increase the area planted for corn this season. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Chizu nomiyama
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The increase in oil loadings at Russia's western port is 6% per month compared to April 1-8
The data and calculations provided by sources in the trade industry showed that oil loadings at Russia's western port over the period April 1-8 will increase by 90,000 barrels a day (bpd), compared to the same period last March, to reach around 1.7 million bpd. Calculations showed that the exports and transits of Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light grades of oil from Primorsk to Ust-Luga, Novorossiisk and Novorossiisk will increase by 6% per day from March 1-8. Calculations based on three sources show that Russia's daily oil output from its western ports is set to increase by 100,000 barrels a day in April compared to March, as domestic refinery maintenance begins to outweigh the output cuts under an OPEC+ deal. Several market sources believe that Russia's export of oil in April may fall below the March level, due to some refineries being repaired after drone attacks during February and March. This means more crude oil will be allocated for domestic oil plants before the peak season demand for motor fuels. Calculations based on data provided by LSEG and other sources indicate that Russia's total offline primary crude oil refining capability in April could fall to 2.137 millions metric tons, down from 3.58million tons in March. Reporting by Louise Heavens; Editing by Louise Heavens
Canada wants new pipelines in order to avoid Trump tariffs, but no one wants to build them.
Industry experts say that the Canadian government will have to play an important role in any project to construct new oil pipelines within Canada in order to overcome regulatory, political, and financial hurdles, as well as activist opposition.
As U.S. president Donald Trump threatens tariffs on Canadian oil imports, several Canadian politicians are calling for new pipelines that connect to coastal terminals in order to reduce dependence on the U.S.
Canada is the fourth largest oil exporter in the world. It exports 4 million barrels of crude oil per day to U.S. refining plants. This is approximately 90% of Canada's total oil exports.
The Liberal Energy Minister of Canada, the leader of the Conservative opposition and several provincial premiers all call for new pipelines that will transport crude oil to Canada's east, west and north coasts. No private company has recently expressed interest in undertaking such a multi-billion dollar project that could take up to a decade.
In the past decade, two major east-west projects were canceled. A Canadian company lost billions of dollars when the former U.S. president Joe Biden revoked the permits for the Keystone XL Pipeline project in the U.S. by 2021.
Trump said on Monday that he wants Keystone XL to be built, and he promised easy regulatory approvals. On the same day he announced that tariffs would be imposed on imports of U.S. goods from Canada and Mexico in March.
Tariffs could make Canadian crude less affordable for U.S. refining companies or reduce margins for Canadian producers. This would hurt demand for pipelines.
Dennis McConaghy is a former executive of TransCanada Corp. (now TC Energy). He said that building pipelines still poses too many risks to Canadian companies. He was involved in the ill-fated Keystone XL pipeline project. McConaghy stated in an interview that if he were on the board of a pipeline company, he would find it difficult to justify taking these risks.
Trans Mountain, a pipeline that runs from Alberta's oil-producing province to British Columbia's west coast, is Canada's current alternative to bypassing the U.S. The crude can be exported to foreign markets. Kinder Morgan completed the expansion of the line last year, seven years after it threatened to cancel the line due to strong environmental and Indigenous resistance.
Ottawa purchased the Trans Mountain system in 2018 for C$4.5billion (US $3.15billion) to complete the expansion. The cost of the project grew to C$34billion over four years due to budget overruns and construction delays.
Kent Fellows is an energy economist with the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.
Canada's energy industry has complained for years about the long permitting processes and regulatory uncertainty that slow down projects and scare away potential investors.
Martha Hall Findlay is a former Suncor Energy Inc. executive and Liberal member of parliament. She is now the director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.
In 2019, the act will require pipelines to be assessed for their social and cultural impacts, as well as their environmental impact. Only one project, the Cedar LNG Project, has completed the process successfully since then. It took three-and-a half years.
Hall Findlay stated that "working collaboratively with provinces will be critical -- and it will require some serious political leadership."
Enbridge, a Canadian energy infrastructure company, said in a recent conference that it would not consider any Canadian pipeline projects unless Ottawa reversed its policy on energy infrastructure.
He said that the country needed to reform its permitting system, eliminate the cap on emissions generated by oil and gas production and expand federal and provincial loan guarantees programs, allowing Indigenous Communities to invest in pipeline projects as equity investors.
Ebel stated that "we would need to see a real legislative change on the federal and province government level which specifically identifies the major infrastructure projects as being in national interest."
The companies must also have confidence in the ability of Canada's oil-sands sector to increase production and fill a new pipe. It took oil sands producers years to ramp-up production to reach record levels last year for the Trans Mountain expansion. S&P Global Commodity Insights published a report in 2013 that said Canadian oil sands production increased by 1.3m barrels per day over the past decade and could increase by another half-million bpd before 2030.
OIL SANDS GROWTH IS UNCERTAIN
Canada has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. This goal is in direct opposition to any increase in oil production.
The Canada Energy Regulator's 2023 forecast suggested that oil sands production would decline by 30 percent by 2050 to achieve the net-zero goal of the country.
The S&P Global Report predicts a decline in production starting as early as 2035.
Hall Findlay said that for now, the threat of tariffs has shifted the balance away from climate change and towards building pipelines.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called on federal and provincial governments in Washington, D.C. to build oil and gas pipelines from the east, west, and north coasts of Canada.
Hall Findlay stated that if the federal and provincial governments supported a pipeline via a public-private partnerships or other forms of financial support, this might attract private capital.
Kevin Birn is chief Canadian oil market analyst at S&P Global. He believes that a change of government could boost confidence in Canada’s energy sector.
This month, opposition leader Pierre Poilievre said to reporters that a Conservative Government would "repeal laws against energy" and "build pipes."
Birn stated that even then, there was no guarantee of a long-term solution. Birn noted that former U.S. president Barack Obama's government rejected the Keystone XL Project. Trump revived the project during his first term, but Biden revoked it. Now Trump is encouraging its revival.
Birn, in an interview, said that "part of the problem" is the fact that infrastructure development now needs to be viewed in terms of political cycles.
If you want to build large infrastructures in North America, now you need to ask yourself, "Can I do this in one term? (Reporting and editing by Caroline Stauffer, David Gregorio and Amanda Stephenson)
(source: Reuters)