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US utilities struggle with the massive power demand for data centers by Big Tech

U.S. Electric utilities are receiving massive requests for additional power capacity, as Big Tech searches the country to find viable locations for data centers that can keep up with AI's compute demands. In a survey of 13 U.S. major electric utility earnings transcripts, nearly half of the utilities received inquiries from data centers for power volumes that would exceed peak demand or their existing generation capacity. That's all they supply to businesses and homes. This metric reflects the sheer magnitude of oncoming needs for data centers. The power industry now faces a challenge that will affect billions in investment. How to meet demand?

Utilities announced additional capital expenditures in the billions this year. Some utilities have even doubled their investment plans for five years.

Underestimating the demand can lead to an unstable grid and a greater chance of blackouts. Ratepayers may be on the hook if utilities overbuild.

Investors and other experts in power said that tech companies approach multiple power utilities within the same state or across multiple states to seek multiple bids for a single project. This complicates matters by causing power demand forecasts to be inflated.

Jon Gordon, director of the Advanced Energy United trade group for clean energy, which includes clean power users and large energy consumers like data centers, said: "What we are seeing is this enormous proposed influx"

It is very difficult to predict the future demand for utilities because of their size and secrecy.

James Richmond, CEO at e2Companies (a provider of energy management systems), said that the data center process will be a competitive bidding from three companies on many markets. "That one third, automatically, will win and the two-thirds will drop out."

Big Demands

Sempra, for example, said that Oncor Electric in Texas, which services the Dallas area, had received requests for an additional 119 Gigawatts. This is almost four times the peak power usage on their system.

PPL, based in Allentown, Pa., said that it received more than 50 GW data center requests. This includes at least 9GW which are already advanced stages of development.

Oncor stated that it will only include data centers in its budget plan after it has signed contracts with the developer or the operator, and secured collateral such as a letter or credit guarantee, cash or an affiliate guarantee.

Kerri Dunn, spokesperson for the company, said: "We think these agreements encourage accurate information sharing and project planning certainty."

PPL's spokesperson stated that the company will only spend money on a project if there is an agreement.

The pipeline of data center-driven demand in Evergy territory in Kansas and Missouri has almost doubled, reaching more than 11 GW by the end of 2024. This is slightly higher than the total demand expected for the entire utility system in 2025.

States are starting to notice. Pennsylvania may create a clearinghouse for data center requests to get a better understanding of the soaring demand forecasts. This was revealed by a representative of the Pennsylvania Governor's Office during a recent panel discussion.

Jacob Finkel is the deputy secretary of state for Josh Shapiro.

"RISK OF UNDERBUILD"

Big Tech could also abandon projects that take years to complete due to inflation, increasing interest rates and limited land.

According to several industry sources, in 2024 the cost of building a megawatt would be around $12 million. Richmond noted that the cost of building data centers has risen dramatically since then. The rising capital costs may limit utilities' ability to meet the demand for new facilities, according to Barclays analyst Nick Campanella.

He said that there was a risk of building too much.

There are signs that the requirements for next-generation AI may change, in addition to cost increases. DeepSeek, a new AI model, promises to use less computing power, and potentially less electricity. It only requires a fraction of the current data center chips.

Data centers consume a lot of energy because they have so many chips. Fewer chips means less infrastructure and power to support them. This includes the energy-guzzling systems for cooling. TD Cowen analysts have reported that Microsoft, one of the top investors in AI data centers with plans to spend $80 billion in this year, has pulled back on projects in the United States and Europe that would require 2 GW in electricity.

(source: Reuters)