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The US gasoline market is impacted by high imports and a soft summer demand

U.S. gas prices may fall below $3 per gallon for the first summer in four years, as bad weather dampens demand and an increase in imported fuel fills up inventories.

The price of gasoline has been slashed in recent months. This is great news for Americans who are traveling this summer. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, consumers faced record-high prices at the pump.

The latest Consumer Price Index showed that gasoline prices dropped 8.3% in the 12 months ended June. U.S. crude oil prices plummeted more than 20% amid concerns about a lackluster demand, and the trade war with China. Lower oil prices lower the cost for refiners to produce motor fuels. Some of these savings are typically passed onto consumers.

Analysts say that presidents have a limited influence on fuel prices.

Fuel consumption in the week ending July 4, which is usually a period of high consumption, fell 2.5% compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe the drop in fuel demand was due to the extreme heat that blanketed parts of the nation, and may have discouraged many drivers.

AAA data shows that the national average gasoline price after Independence Day dipped down to $3.14 a gallon. This is the lowest summer month average in the last four years. Gas prices in the U.S. averaged $3.14 per gallon after Independence Day. This was the lowest price during summer months since 2004.

The summer is usually the peak season in the U.S. for gasoline consumption. However, gasoline product supply, which is the U.S. Energy Information Administration proxy for demand, averaged 9.2 millions barrels a daily over the last four weeks. This represents a 1% decrease from the same time period last year.

The U.S. is expected to reduce its gasoline consumption permanently from the peak of 9.3 million bpd it reached in 2018.

Patrick De Haan is the head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy. He said, "As August approaches, I believe gasoline will continue to weaken." He added that "the national average is likely to fall below $3 per gallon by September."

De Haan stated that the downward trend could continue as OPEC’s decision to increase crude production in August by a higher-than-expected 548,000 bpd adds further pressure on oil prices.

Imports JUMP

Imported gasoline entering the U.S. also triggered a spike in storage demand.

The weekly U.S. imports of gasoline peaked at 100,700 barrels per day in mid-June, the highest level in more than a year. This was due to an influx from Canada and Europe. Imports were up 7% in June compared to the previous year.

According to The Tank Tiger, the storage broker, in the U.S. demand for gasoline tanks has increased since March. In June, it reached a record high of three years.

Steven Barsamian is the chief operating officer of The Tank Tiger.

According to government statistics, the steady flow of imports helped to lower gasoline prices by 5 cents per gallon on the U.S. East Coast. This region represents almost a third in the total U.S. demand for refined products.

GasBuddy's De Haan reported that the Dangote oil refining plant in Nigeria has increased production of gasoline to U.S. standard, which is boosting imports. Shipments from the Irving Oil refinery, located in New Brunswick, have also consistently landed on the New York Harbor, according to De Haan.

The Tank Tiger's Barsamian explained that the U.S. East Coast is more likely to be oversupplied than other U.S. markets due to limited transportation and pipeline capacity.

The increased flow of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast market to the East Coast was likely due to an increase in the flows along Colonial Pipeline's main gasoline route. This pipeline delivers fuel to East Coast markets.

Colonial Pipeline informed shippers that it would increase capacity on Line 1 from 5% to 7 % above summer volume, according to an notice seen by.

Colonial confirmed the increase in pipeline volume. Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York and Shariq Khan; editing by Liz Hampton, Ni Williams and Ni Hampton

(source: Reuters)