U.S. Hurricane forecasters lose critical access to government data

After July, the U.S. will no longer share data from three satellites that monitor weather.

Data loss makes it difficult to accurately monitor hurricanes

Half of the previous remote sensing data is no longer used by hurricane forecasters

Rachel Parsons

In response to Hurricane Sandy, crews on Clearwater Beach, a tiny island just off the coast of Florida have begun to raise the remaining structure by more than 13 feet in order to comply with new federal building codes.

According to the National Weather Service, the disaster of September 2024 caused damages worth nearly $79 billion and killed 250 people, making it one of the most deadly hurricanes in the United States in the last 20 years.

Lisa Avram is Scholl's child and oversees the reconstruction.

As families recover from last year's storms and prepare to rebuild, the Atlantic hurricane season of this year is already underway. The risk is even greater than before.

Forecasters have a more difficult job to do than ever before, not only because they predict three to five "major hurricanes" but also because the forecasting is now busier.

Last month, the U.S. Department of Defense surprised hurricane forecasters when it announced that three of its satellites would no longer share data. This effectively reduced the amount of data available to meteorologists by half.

Data sharing has allowed forecasters to accurately predict the location, size and intensity of hurricanes over the past two decades.

Michael Lowry, former National Hurricane Center employee and television station WPLG Miami, Florida, said, "It is all kinds of problematic."

NOAA sent an internal message to announce that the service will end by June 30.

NOAA suspended the service until July 31. This was done to "mitigate an important cybersecurity risk."

Lowry stated that "[the data sets] are really important in telling us not only how strong the hurricane is currently, but how much stronger it could get."

Lowry says that these satellites do not track things high above clouds, as can be seen in radar images. Instead, they operate in low-polar orbits and use microwaves to "see" into a hurricane.

He said that without them, forecasters are unable to provide early warnings.

People can't leave because they have less time to prepare. Lowry added that there are more lives and people at risk. Emergency management services also cannot preposition resources like search-and rescue teams to look for survivors.

Lowry stated that the loss of data from Defense Meteorological Satellite Programs (DMSP) has reduced the amount of information remote sensing forecasters have access to by half.

He said that with three fewer satellites, forecasters may be able to get information about a hurricane strengthening every six to twelve hours rather than every few hours. This would give storms more time to develop without being noticed.

Satellites that are used for traditional satellites provide limited detail in the daylight and even less at night.

Lowry explained that the concern was what some in his community call a "sunrise shock," whereby you go to sleep at eight in the evening and wake up to a tropical storm.

He said: "We wake up the next morning to find it on our doorstep. It's a category three or four hurricane."

'GIANT LOSS'

Satellites of the DMSP closely track sea ice, even thousands of miles away from the hurricane zone.

Zachary Labe is a climate researcher at Climate Central, who has been using these data sets to study the polar sea ice, climate change, and other related topics for decades.

Labe described the loss of access as "quite shocking".

He said, "These satellites... have really shown the story of Arctic Climate Change for almost five decades."

He added that the data was "a key piece of information for cryosphere research" because it allowed observation of sea ice trends and variability over time.

Sea ice data is used by coastal communities in Alaska to prepare for storms, flooding and transportation decisions.

Labe stated that other satellites controlled and operated by countries like Japan also have the same capabilities.

Japan's satellites haven't been in operation as long. Now there is a scramble to match the timelines for different satellites, so that there are no gaps in the records.

He said that climate scientists needed "more data and not less" for their research. Satellites were used to support a variety of climate studies.

Labe stated, "It is a huge loss."

In an email, a spokesperson for the U.S. Navy confirmed that DMSP data-sharing would cease on July 31, 2017.

According to the spokesperson, "the DMSP will be completely discontinued in September 2026" as it no longer "meets our information technology requirements."

Lisa Avram, her husband and their family are constantly on edge in Florida.

She and other storm survivors whose houses are in different elevations may find it "a seriously dangerous proposition".

She said that because it's hurricane season, houses in the air are even more dangerous, as they're not properly secured.

(source: Reuters)