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Is the Iran War just a shock to energy - or is it a turning-point? Russell
Loss of?barrels, and increased prices are already being used to measure the Iran war's impact on global crude oil and gas markets. With a U.S. peace deal with Iran expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz in the near future, it's time to assess whether this was a 'watershed moment or just another blip. Consider two precedents. Volkswagen's "Dieselgate", a scandal in 2015 over rigged emission tests, seemed innocent at first. But it signalled the end of diesel cars for passenger vehicles and the rise?of electric vehicle (EVs). The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused an 'abrupt''surge' in energy prices. However, the market was able to absorb the shock and reroute the flows, so the impact was short-lived. The market has certainly worked its magic to close the Strait of Hormuz effectively since the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran began on 28 February. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have all lost at least 1 billion barrels worth of crude oil. The narrow waterway that separates Iran and Oman also traps up to 20% of the global supply of liquefied gas. The combination of strategic and business inventory releases, as well as a dramatic drop in crude imports from China, the largest crude importer in the world, have helped to keep Brent crude futures below $100 per barrel during the current crisis. One could argue that traders were influenced by the optimism surrounding a possible agreement to reopen Strait, believing President Donald Trump’s social media posts indicating that an accord was imminent. The long-awaited agreement began to take shape on Sunday, when the U.S. announced that it had reached an agreement with Iran on a framework to allow vessels to resume their transit. Trump announced on Monday that oil tankers had begun to leave the Strait. The full details of this agreement are not yet public, but the prospect that tankers will soon be able to enter and exit the waterway with no hindrances raises the question of what comes next. First, the energy markets would receive a temporary sugar rush of relief as trapped tankers in the Gulf leave and deliver their cargoes. The next step would be to try to restore the supply chain and flow of goods to their pre-war level, followed by a longer process to rebuild depleted stocks. The price of crude oil and LNG could stay high for longer if the barrels lost are replaced. However, this will depend on the speed at which Middle East producers can ramp up production and exports and whether OPEC+ 'group is able to produce the higher volumes they have agreed to. CHANGES IN BEHAVIOUR? The longer-term effects are the more important question. The views of consumers and governments will be crucial, particularly in Asia, which is the fastest growing region, where energy consumption is high. Customers who can change their minds are more likely to switch to hybrid or electric vehicles in order to protect themselves from future price spikes for diesel and gasoline. Australia, which is the largest diesel importer in the world and relies on foreign refineries to meet over 80% its fuel needs, provides an early glimpse of what this could look like. In May, Australian EV sales reached a new record, with a 20% market share. When combined with hybrids, this share increased to 46%. In China, which is the world's largest EV producer, EVs and hybrids will account for more than half of all sales by 2025. This figure rose to 60% this May. The government's?policies will also shift towards promoting renewables and electricity over fossil fuels. Dieselgate has seen the motor fuel lose popularity, particularly in Europe where its share in passenger car sales fell from 52% in 2015, to less than 10% in 2025. Asian countries like Vietnam have already put in place policies that encourage electric scooters and EVs. This momentum will likely grow throughout the region. In Asia, LNG is also at stake as countries weigh up the security risks associated with an imported fossil fuel versus buying solar panels,?wind turbines, and?battery-storage from China or developing local industries with Chinese backing. Coal is one fossil fuel that could emerge as the long-term victor of this crisis. China, India, and Indonesia are all countries with large reserves of domestic fuel. They will continue to use it because they can afford it and have a reliable supply, even though this makes reducing carbon dioxide emissions more difficult. Importing coal is also an option for some countries, as the main exporters, such as Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa, are reliable suppliers, and shipments won't be at risk due to chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz. But a long-term move away from crude oil or LNG is not guaranteed, since the producers and exporters are not likely to accept their demise. It may not be difficult to get people to forget about the previous crisis if prices are kept low and drop quickly. Brent fell 4% from $83 to $83 immediately after the announcement of the deal, suggesting that this process is already underway. It's possible for governments and consumers to forgive and forget about the costs and disruption of the Iran War, just as they did in the past after price spikes caused by conflict. The views expressed are those of a columnist at. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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China embraces Myanmar's president as former junta chief seeks legitimacy
The state visit by Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing to China will give him a diplomatic boost, as he seeks to consolidate power in the war torn country after a widely condemned presidential election held at the beginning of the year. Min Aung Hlaing's five-day state visit, which will include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the highest diplomatic level, comes after he visited India last month and held discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Richard Horsey is the Crisis Group's senior Myanmar advisor. "India did not give him the full honors of a state visit on his recent trip, but he was given a warm welcome." Analysts say that while the optics of Min?Aung Hlaing's visit are positive, Beijing will likely remain focused on its own strategic goals, such as strengthening borders and developing resources like rare earths. China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and investor. It has anchored its influence with major Belt and Road Projects, such as a cross country oil and gas pipeline and deep sea port. Beijing is also a key supplier and diplomatic partner of the Myanmar military. David Mathieson is a Thailand-based analyst who closely follows Myanmar. "China also perceives that the West is retreating from Myanmar, and Beijing will assert its new suzerainty in the country." CHINESE INTERESTS Since Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2021, Myanmar has been engulfed in a civil war. The protests against the coup turned into a national armed uprising that pitted the military against newly formed pro-democracy groups and ethnic armies. More than 93,000 people have been killed and more than 3.7 millions displaced by the fighting in this impoverished Southeast Asian country. Myanmar's military orchestrated a general elections last December and January that excluded major opposition, and resulted in an overwhelming victory for a party backed by the army, which paved the way for the election of Min?Aung Hlaing as president. According to the state media, the delegation that accompanied Min Aung Hlaing in China included the chief ministers from Myanmar's Kachin State and Shan State, which both border China. They also included the country's minister of industry. Kachin State has one of the largest heavy rare earth mine belts in the world, and Shan State shares many trading routes with China. Aung Kyaw Soe said that the ministers' attendance suggests that discussions will likely focus on border trade, and the Myitsone Dam project, a $3.6 billion Chinese-led project, in Kachin State, which was shelved by 2011. Aung Kyaw Soe stated that "in 2025, the military second-in command, General Soe Win personally started bringing up the topic of restarting Myitsone. I believe they will discuss it during 'Min Aung Hlaings' current trip to China," Aung Kyaw Soe. Min Aung Hlaing’s visit will be impacted by the arrest of Min Zin in China, a prominent American scholar from Myanmar. He was arrested on suspicion of spying. Horsey, from the Crisis Group, said that Min Aung Hlaing’s visit would bring more attention to Min Zin’s arrest because he was one of the leading Myanmar scholars who worked towards improving understanding between the countries. (Reporting and Editing by DevjyotGhoshal and Kate Mayberry).
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The largest tanker operator told FT that it will take a few weeks to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The chief exec of Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. said that shipowners won't resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz until they feel "confident" about the U.S.Iran deal. Lines said in an interview with the Financial Times published on Tuesday. The Iran War that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, along with products like?aluminium, urea and other liquefied gas and oil supplies around the world has largely stopped shipping. Mitsui O.S.K. is one of Japan’s three largest shipping companies with a fleet of over 900 vessels. This includes bulk carriers, tanks and ferries. "What must?come into place is not a simple agreement, but one that can be translated to the actual situations in the Strait of Hormuz so shipping lines feel comfortable going through," Mitsui O.S.K. 's Jotaro Tamura told FT just before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a?"deal" to end the Iran war. Tamura said that based on the experience of the past couple of months it is reasonable to assume it will take at least two weeks, if not more. Mitsui O.S.K. A request for comment was not responded to immediately. According to the FT, Tamura's opinion has not changed since the agreement between Washington & Tehran was finalised. In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump?said that ships laden with?oil have started to leave the strait. "They are going along the Southern 'Highway', which is completely safe, secure and pristine".
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news stories and updates from France and Benelux that could have an effect on individual stocks or the markets in these regions. Aeroports de Paris, a French airport operator, reported that May group traffic rose by 1.2% to 32.8 million passengers. Traffic at the Paris Aeroport was up 1.0%, at 9.5 millions passengers. This is due to easing Middle East instabilities. EDENRED - French payment solutions provider Edenred has acquired Mobility House Solutions to strengthen its position in Germany, Austria and the rest of Europe. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter 2026. France/G7: European Leaders will warn U.S. Donald Trump on Tuesday at the G7 summit that a superficial interim Iran agreement risks entrenching Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes. They will also press him to reconsider his Ukraine strategy. Donald Trump, U.S. president on Monday, said that an agreement had been reached with Iran and that it would be made public after the formal signing of the deal on Friday. He also stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all traffic. Orange, the French telecommunications firm, priced EUR850m in undated hybrid 7-year notes with a coupon of 4.25% and launched a tender to purchase EUR1.25bn of existing 12-year notes without a call and EUR500mn existing 7.5-year notes. Thales, a French technology and defense company, announced that Availity had selected Thales OneWelcome as the platform to handle billions of transactions across Availity's healthcare network. French tubular solutions company Vallourec stated that it expected geothermal to become the biggest contributor to its new energys business with an addressable?market of around 400,000 tonne?by 2030. Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 ?index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European ?pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct ?losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones ............... Wall Street Report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ London report ........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... Survey of global bourse outlook ......... European Asset Allocation........................ News in a glance Top News ............. Equities.............. Main Oil Report ........... Main currency report .....
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China embraces Myanmar's president as former junta chief seeks legitimacy
The state visit by Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing to China will give him a diplomatic boost as he attempts to consolidate power in the war torn country after a widely condemned election at the beginning of the year. Min Aung Hlaing's five-day state visit to China, where he will meet Chinese president Xi Jinping at the highest diplomatic level, comes after a recent official trip to India, during which he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Richard Horsey is the Crisis Group's senior Myanmar advisor. He said: "An official visit by Xi Jinping to Myanmar is a clear signal that China will deal with Myanmar as a partner." "India gave him warm embrace during his recent visit but not full honours for an official state-visit." Analysts say that while the optics of Min Aung Hlaing's victory are positive, Beijing will likely continue to focus on its own strategic goals, such as strengthening borders and developing resources like rare earths. China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and biggest investor. It anchors its influence with major Belt and Road Projects, such as a cross country oil and gas pipeline and deep sea port. Beijing is also a key supplier and diplomatic partner of the Myanmar military. It has even helped to broker ceasefires in parts of Myanmar's border where ethnic armies that have strong ties with China are dominant. David Mathieson is a Bangkok-based independent analyst closely following Myanmar. He said that China's interest was not in federalism but rather rare?earths and infrastructure, mining and the security of the economic corridor to the Indian Ocean. "China also perceives that the West is retreating from Myanmar, and Beijing will assert its new suzerainty in the country." CHINESE INTERESTS Since Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2021, Myanmar has been engulfed in a civil war. The protests against the coup turned into a national armed uprising that pitted the military against newly formed pro-democracy groups and ethnic armies. Fighting has devastated the impoverished Southeast Asian country, killing more than 93,000 and forcing 3.7 millions to flee their homes. Myanmar's military orchestrated a general elections last December and January that excluded major opposition, and resulted in an overwhelming victory for a party backed by the army, which paved the way for Min Aung Hlaing to be elected president. According to the state media, the delegation that accompanied Min Aung Hlaing in China included the chief ministers from Myanmar's Kachin State and Shan State, both of which border China. They also included the country's Industry Minister. Kachin State has one of the largest heavy rare earth mine belts in the world, and Shan State shares several trade routes with China. Aung Kyaw Soe said that the ministers' attendance suggests that discussions will likely focus on border trade, and the Myitsone Dam project, a $3.6 billion Chinese-led Kachin State project shelved by 2011. Aung Kyaw Soe stated that "in 2025, the military second-in command, General Soe Win personally started bringing up restarting Myitsone. I think they will talk about restarting it on?Min Aung Hlaing?s current visit to China." A recent arrest of Min Zin in China, a prominent American scholar from Myanmar, has hung over?Min Aung Hlaing’s visit. Horsey, from the Crisis Group, said that Min Aung Hlaing’s visit would bring more attention to Min Zin’s arrest because he was one of the leading Myanmar scholars who worked towards improving understanding between the countries. (Reporting and Editing by DevjyotGhoshal and Kate Mayberry).
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Is the Iran War just an energy shock or a turning-point? Russell
Losses in barrels of crude oil and increased prices are already a result of the Iran war. With a U.S. - Iran peace deal expected that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz the reckoning has begun: Was this a watershed or just another blip, we ask? Consider two ?precedents. Volkswagen's "Dieselgate", a scandal involving rigged emission tests in 2015, seemed innocent at first. But it signalled the end of diesel cars for passenger vehicles and the rise in electric vehicles (EVs). The impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was short-lived due to the market's ability reroute the flows and absorb shock. The'market' has'so far acted as a magic wand to deal with the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran began on 28 February. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have all lost at least 1 billion barrels worth of crude oil. The narrow waterway that separates Iran and Oman also traps up to 20% of the global supply of liquefied gas. The combination of strategic and business inventory releases, as well as a dramatic drop in crude imports from China, the largest crude importer in the world, have helped to keep Brent crude futures below $100 per barrel during the current crisis. One could argue that traders were influenced by President Donald Trump’s social media posts indicating that an agreement would be imminent. The long-awaited agreement began to take shape on Sunday, when the U.S. announced that it had reached an agreement with Iran on a framework which could allow vessels to resume transit. Trump announced on Monday that oil tankers had begun to leave the Strait. The agreement is not yet public, but the fact that tankers will soon be able to enter and exit the waterway with no hindrances raises questions about what comes next. First, the energy markets would receive a temporary sugar rush of relief as trapped tankers in the Gulf leave and deliver their cargoes. The next step would be to try to restore the supply chain and flow of goods to their pre-war level, followed by a longer process to rebuild depleted stocks. The price of crude oil and 'LNG could stay high for longer, as barrels lost are replaced. However, much depends on how quickly Middle East producers can ramp up production and exports. Also, whether the OPEC+ is able to pump the higher volumes they have agreed to produce. CHANGES IN BEHAVIOUR? The bigger question, however, is the impact on long-term. The views of consumers and governments will be crucial, particularly in Asia, which is the fastest growing region, where energy consumption is high. Customers who can change their minds are more likely to switch to hybrid or electric vehicles in order to protect themselves from future price spikes for diesel and gasoline. Australia, which is the largest diesel importer in the world and relies on foreign refineries to meet over 80% its fuel needs, provides an early glimpse of what this could look like. In May, Australian EV sales reached a new record, with a 20% market share. When combined with hybrids, this share increased to 46%. In China, which is the world's largest EV producer, EVs and hybrids will account for more than half of all sales by 2025. This figure rose to 60% this May. The government is also likely to change its policies in favor of renewables and electricty over fossil fuels. Dieselgate has seen the motor fuel lose popularity, particularly in Europe where its share in passenger car sales fell from 52% in 2015, to less than 10% in 2025. Asian countries like Vietnam have already put in place policies that encourage electric scooters and EVs. This momentum will likely grow throughout the region. In Asia, LNG is also a threat as countries weigh up the security risks associated with an imported fossil fuel versus buying solar panels, battery storage, and wind turbines?from China or developing local industries with Chinese support. Coal is one fossil fuel that could emerge as the long-term victor of this crisis. China, India, and Indonesia are all countries with large reserves of domestic fuel. They will continue to use it because they can afford it and have a reliable supply, even though this makes reducing carbon dioxide emissions more difficult. Importing nations may also deem coal as a safer investment, since the major exporters, Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa, have been reliable suppliers for many years and that shipping is not at risk due to chokepoints such as?the Strait of Hormuz. But a long-term move away from crude oil or LNG is not guaranteed, since the producers and exporters are unlikely to accept their demise. It may only take a rapid drop in prices and a prolonged period of low prices to make people forget about the previous crisis. Brent fell 4% to $83, on the?announcement of the deal, suggesting that this process is already underway. It's possible for governments and consumers to forgive and forget about the costs and disruption of the Iran War, just as they did in the past after price spikes caused by conflict. The views expressed are those of author, a contributor to. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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US closes investigation into 2024 Delta Air Lines melting down sparked by CrowdStrike failure
The Trump?administration announced on Monday that it had?closed?an?investigation, without seeking penalties, into a July 20, 2024 meltdown of Delta Air Lines sparked a global outage which disrupted the plans of 1.3 millions customers and cost $500 million to the carrier. Biden's administration launched an investigation into Delta after the CrowdStrike computer software outage. Other major carriers had been able to quickly resume normal operations. The U.S. Transportation Department spokeswoman said that the review revealed "Delta passengers received prompt refunds and adequate baggage assistance as well as appropriate?assistance to passengers with disabilities." USDOT, under President Donald Trump's administration, has rolled back some of the consumer protection initiatives announced by then-President Joe Biden. It has also reversed?a number?of penalties. Delta stated in a statement that it was thankful USDOT acknowledged "the catastrophic circumstance we faced as an Industry during the unprecedented outage" and dismissed the investigation by citing our care for customers. This included millions of dollars of refunds, hotel, food, and baggage assistance. USDOT stated that its decision to close the investigation included a directive to Delta to "provide adequate customer service assistance, including timely notification of your right to request a refund." Politico was the first to report on Monday that this decision was made back in November. USDOT waived an $11 million fine on Southwest Airlines in 'December. This was part of a settlement for $140 million over the airline's meltdown during a busy travel season. As part of the settlement, American Airlines was also required to pay $16,7?million in 2024. This was due to their treatment of wheelchairs and disabled passengers. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) closed its investigation last month into airlines that failed to comply with the required flight reductions at 40 major airports in 2025 during the government shutdown, without seeking any fines.
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Native Taiwanese paddle to the Philippines to reconnect a long-lost route
A group of native Taiwanese paddled to the Philippines in a wooden canoe that they built themselves, revitalizing a route that had been dormant for hundreds of years and reestablishing a cultural connection. The indigenous Batanes Islands, located north of Luzon in the Philippines, are also closely related to Taiwan's Orchid island. The 20-seater canoe named Ovayan, or "Golden Friendship", was built by six communities in Orchid Island, as part of an official project. It will take 24 hours to complete the trip, with 60 people rotating between support ships and taking turns rowing. Maraos is the chairperson of Taiwan’s Indigenous Peoples Cultural Foundation, and he himself is an Orchid Island tao. He said that his goal was to reconnect?the forgotten sea route. Maraos (who only goes by one name) said, "With this project, we're re-establishing a sea route between Orchid Island to Batanes. This will allow our cultures and language to continue being transmitted." Hsieh Hsiu Hsiung, a rower, stated that the boat was accompanied by another vessel for safety purposes. Hsieh, who is 61 and a diving instructor, said: "We are no longer afraid because we have modern vessels sailing with us." In the past, our ancestors may have used the stars and moon to guide them while sailing. The 'Tao' are one of Taiwan's smaller indigenous groups, with only a population of?around 5 000. Less than 3 % of Taiwan's 23,000,000 people are indigenous groups. Orchid Island, a popular tourist attraction, is often cut off from Taiwan by bad weather and its isolation. The 'Bashi Channel' is a strategic waterway that connects the South China Sea with the Pacific. Chinese warships patrol the area. Maraos said: "We hope this voyage can be respected by all nations," Maraos said. We do not want our ships or warships to be harassed while at sea by other nations. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Ben Blanchard, Ben Blanchard's writing; Ann Wang, Cheng-Chia Hua; Ann Wang)
China's Xi supports Myanmar's President as the two leaders meet in Beijing
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday endorsed the ?political leadership of Myanmar's military chief-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing as the ?two met in Beijing to ?map out the future development ?of ?bilateral ties. "I'm willing to continue strengthening (our countries' bilateral ties), to carry forward the brotherly relationship between our two nations, and to deepen comprehensive strategic collaboration," Xi said to his Myanmar counterpart according to Chinese state television CCTV. Min Aung Hlaing will be in China until Friday for a 5-day state visit. This is his first trip since he formalised his power after the controversial elections that took place in December and Janaury in war-torn Myanmar. Xi spoke about the importance of their bilateral ties in contributing to regional peace and growth. Beijing hosted a state-welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People, before the leaders met in a closed door meeting that lasted a little more than an hour. Xinhua, the Chinese state-run news agency, reported that both men witnessed the signing documents of cooperation. The 18 memorandums of cooperation covered areas such as cross-border transportation within the Greater Mekong Subregion, free trade and assistance for natural disasters.
China is one of Myanmar's most important foreign partners. The military seized power in February 2021 from Aung San Suu Kyi, the elected leader of Myanmar. This triggered an armed revolt.
China's Foreign Ministry?has stated that it supports Myanmar to unify domestic political forces and restore?stability.
Beijing has also invested in Myanmar projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. This includes an oil and natural gas pipeline that crosses the country, and planned infrastructure such as a deep sea port.
Min?Aung Hlaing has met Xi twice in less than a calendar year. He first met him at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Tianjin in August last year. Min Aung Hlaing chose India as his first foreign trip after he became president. However, analysts believe that his visits to China indicate a stronger relationship with Beijing.
(source: Reuters)