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Manishi Raymondchaudhuri: ROI-China Shock 2.0 has reshuffled the winners and losers
China is exporting its way out of an internal slump, causing what many Western governments refer to as a "second China shock." This strategy may be causing trade wars overseas, but it also creates a whole new group of potential domestic beneficiaries. In recent months, the dichotomy of China's robust export sector and its flagging economy was on full display. China's export?growth was 24% on a year-over-year basis in July, and it posted a $113 Billion trade surplus. This follows similar figures in June. It is now on track to achieve another trillion-dollar surplus by 2026. It recorded a disappointing GDP growth of 4.3% in the second quarter and subdued sales growths of 0.6% in May and 1.3% June. This split is no accident, but reflects Beijing's policies. Over the past decade, China has been trying to dominate advanced manufacturing by gaining a large market share for products like electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and solar cells. Western policymakers call this "China Shock 2", echoing a period in early 2000s when China's growth as a manufacturing exporter caused industries to be disrupted across Europe and America. Today, governments claim that a new wave subsidized Chinese green-tech and electric vehicle exports threatens industrial jobs and undercuts producers. Europe responded with a combination sectoral tariffs and more stringent cybersecurity regulations, as well as exhortations for China to appreciate its currency. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has also increased tariffs. Beijing, meanwhile, has taken only modest steps to boost domestic consumption. This so-called anti-involution campaign, which aims to curb the price wars that are destroying domestic profitability, has met with limited success. Chinese companies were forced to adapt. In order to protect lucrative international revenue streams against?global fragmentation', companies are increasingly manufacturing in core consumer markets. This allows them to bypass trade barriers and build local support while also insulating supply chains from geopolitical disruptors. This is also not an organic change, but a part of Beijing's "Globalization Phase 3.0". This new road map creates the potential for winners and losers to emerge in the second largest economy of the world. National Champions Unsurprisingly, the firms that are best placed to benefit from China's policy changes are concentrated in sectors that dominate its export landscape. China will hold 65% of the global intellectual property in 2024, which includes firms involved in the EV/battery supply chain. BYD, Geely and CATL are the global leaders in EVs and batteries. They not only control large market shares but also have globally diverse manufacturing bases and supply chain. Midea, a consumer electronics giant, and Haier, a global manufacturer, both have fully integrated systems that combine localized R&D, manufacturing, and distribution in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Some of the other potential winners are companies that manufacture critical components for which there are few or no Western alternatives. Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink and other companies produce optical transceivers which are heavily integrated into global AI hardware supply chains and data centers. The large production pipelines they have in Southeast Asia may help them to be protected from possible trade disputes with Western customers. Some of these companies could also be caught in the crossfire of the escalating conflicts. According to a report, the White House may consider a ban on U.S. exports of Chinese data centre components. YUAN PLAYS Beijing may allow its currency to appreciate in response to criticisms about its trade imbalances with Europe and the U.S., thus creating a new set of corporate "winners". As of August 7, the yuan had appreciated by 3.6% versus the dollar, and 5.5% versus the euro. Over the past decade, the yuan has depreciated by 6% against the euro, even though Europe's trade gap with mainland China more than doubled. The yuan's depreciation against the dollar has been a modest 2%, while the U.S. trade deficit with China grew by 10% in the same period. This dynamic shows how deep the undervaluation is. Companies with large euro-denominated liabilities would be the obvious beneficiaries of the yuan appreciating against the euro. Their liabilities will shrink as the yuan appreciates. This category includes large state-owned companies like Sinopec. A strengthening dollar would also benefit China's state-owned airlines, the "Big Three": Air China (China Southern), China Eastern and China Eastern Airlines. Their massive debts in dollars would be reduced to local currency. WATCH OUT FOR HEADWINDS Even the companies that are best positioned to thrive in this new environment will need to be aware of headwinds. One thing to note is that strong exports may not translate into high equity returns. In the first half of the year, BYD's overseas deliveries increased by more than 70% compared to the same period in last year. However, the stock price has fallen due to a fierce internal price war. Beijing's new policy could be hampered by exogenous shocks. The energy price shock caused by the U.S./Iran war has impacted Chinese airline stocks in a big way since February. Due to a shortage of global refining capacity, this conflict could cause jet fuel prices to remain high even if an interim agreement is reached. The first "China Shock" was a major turning point in the industrial world, triggering a new era of globalization. This time around, Chinese firms can't rely on increased cooperation and lower barriers to trade, but instead will likely face an environment characterized by fragmentation and conflict, as well as meaningful pushback from the world's major economic powers. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Writing and editing by Margueritachoy and Anna Szymanski; ManishiRaychaudhuri)
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Ukraine and Russia accuse one another of deadly attacks on Odesa port
Ukraine and Russia both accused the other of deadly attacks on Sunday. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Moscow had targeted global food security when it struck Odesa's port. Three people were 'killed and wounded 37 times in the eastern Ukrainian city?Kharkiv?where an apartment block of multiple floors was struck, and authorities in Russias Belgorod reported that five people were killed and twenty-five wounded by a Ukrainian aerial attack. Zelenskiy claimed that a strike had damaged Odesa's port. Local authorities reported that dozens of drones, missiles and other weapons struck the southern seaside town injuring about a dozen people. Zelenskiy stated that "Russians are at war against the food security of the world in this manner." Odesa’s "seaports" are the main artery of Ukraine's agricultural exports. He also said that Russia hit nine other Ukrainian areas on Sunday. Russia bombarded Odesa to try and cut Ukraine off from Black Sea. "Everyone in Odesa knows that the most frequent target is the area around the port," said 67 year old?Ihor. His apartment narrowly avoided destruction. Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil tankers, cargo ships and other vessels in the Black Sea to disrupt Russia’s war-waging revenues. It claimed three more such attacks on Sunday. Both sides have launched an escalating campaign to undermine the logistics of the other. E-commerce warehouses and Ukrainian petrol stations were targeted heavily during the summer. Naftogaz, the state-owned oil and gas company of Ukraine, said that attacks on its facilities have increased in recent days. This includes overnight attacks on oil extraction equipment. Ukraine's Energy Ministry said that Russia had attacked power plants in the Odesa area, causing "significant" loss of electricity for residents of Odesa overnight. The company said that 90,000 customers had already regained power. The Russian Defence Ministry has said that it struck fuel storage facilities in Odesa, and Chornomorsk nearby. Pope Leo renewed his call for an end to the four-and-a half year war in the Vatican on Sunday. The pontiff told worshippers at Sunday's Angelus service that "Tragic incidents are multiplying and causing an increasing number of civilian victims including children." (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith, Barbara Lewis and Max Hunder at the Kyiv and Moscow Bureau)
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Swiss Re warns of heatwave dangers as some parts of Germany relax trucking restrictions
The authorities failed to understand the'scale of risk' heatwaves pose to human life, according to the CEO of Swiss?Re, quoted on Sunday. This was as some German states relaxed trucking restrictions in order to reduce weather-related pressures on shipping. Europe, the continent that is warming up fastest, has seen thousands of deaths due to a record heatwave. Most of these deaths were people over 65 years old. France and Spain experienced particularly high temperatures over the past few weeks. Heat has also decreased water levels in major?rivers which have hampered shipping. This has prompted some German states to temporarily suspend curbs on truck traffic this weekend. Swiss Re CEO Andreas Berger said to the Swiss newspaper?NZZ am Sonntag that the risk of heatwaves, and their associated deaths, was understated. Berger added: "We must raise awareness about the dangers?arising? from this." Berger said that it is too early to determine the impact of excess mortality on the figures for Swiss Re, which was reported by the company in the first half 2026. Robert Koch Institute of Public Health estimated that there were approximately?11900 heat-related death in Germany in this year, mainly due to extreme temperatures late in June. North Rhine-Westphalia - Germany's largest?state - as well as Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate - as well as Saarland - lowered trucking curbs to help ease bottlenecks in transport caused by high water levels along rivers, including the Rhine. Low water levels are straining supply chains. That's why we're taking ?action and creating additional transport options by road at short notice," said Rhineland-Palatinate's state secretary for transport, Markus ?Wolf. Authorities said that the looser curbs for truck traffic on Sundays and Holidays will be in effect until August 31 and may remain in place through September in certain states. (Writing and reporting by Dave Graham, with additional reporting from Holger Hansen at Berlin; editing by Alexander Smith).
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Turkish officials claim that the passage of ships into the Black Sea is proceeding smoothly.
Two Turkish officials said on Sunday that ships are moving'smoothly' through the Turkish Straits to?the Black Sea, despite increased safety concerns. Bloomberg News reported on Saturday that Ankara has restricted commercial ship traffic into the Black Sea after attacks against vessels, including Turkish-owned vessels. The Turkish government has repeatedly warned Moscow and Kyiv about the attacks on ships in the Black Sea. It has urged the warring parties to take steps to ensure navigational security in the region. Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Foreign Minister said that Ankara has urged Moscow and Kyiv to declare a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea. Officials who spoke under anonymity said that Turkey had taken some temporary measures to ensure its security, as it was very uncomfortable with the situation. However, this passage is clear in terms of the?Montreux Convention. The officials did not provide any further details. The Montreux Convention of 1936 on the Regime of the Straits grants Turkey "control" over the Bosphorus, Dardanelles and the right to regulate the transit of naval warships. The agreement also allows civilian ships to pass freely in peacetime, and restricts passage for vessels not from a Black Sea country. Turkey, with NATO's second largest army, has maintained friendly relations with Kyiv and Moscow ever since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine 2022. It has refused to join Western sanction against Russia while also providing military assistance to Ukraine, including using its own stock. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tuvan Gumrukcu)
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Spain checks 200 Italian arrivals at the border after migration row
On the first day that border controls were reintroduced after a dispute with Italy over 'irregular migration,' Spain checked 200 passengers arriving from Italy at six of the largest airports in the country. Spain's Interior Ministry conducted checks on 199 passengers on 12 flights departing from Italy and arriving at airports in Madrid (Barcelona), Seville (Bilbao), Alicante, Valencia, and Alicante, the ministry said late on Saturday. Spain announced on Friday that border controls would continue to be in place for Italian flights and ships until September 7, after Rome implemented its own measures. Rome said the measures were motivated by a mass migration rush of 72,000 people into Spain's North African enclave, Ceuta. Italy suspended Schengen's borderless Schengen agreement with Spain on August 1, and has said that it will maintain border control until at least August 15 Rome stated that the measure will not affect Spanish or other EU nationals travelling to Italy, but instead would involve targeted checks of?non EU nationals arriving by sea or air from Spain. In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera published on Sunday, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said: "We hope to be able?to lift the suspension as soon as?there is no longer any risk." Schengen Area allows passport free?travel between 29 European?countries. However, member states may temporarily reinstate border controls for security or public order reasons.
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Russian authorities claim that three people were killed in a drone attack by Ukraine on Belgorod.
Local authorities reported on Sunday that three people were killed and 25 others injured in a drone attack by the Ukrainians overnight against Belgorod. Alexander Shuvayev said that the incident sparked two fires which were later put out by emergency services. He said that a number of residential buildings and non-residential ones were damaged. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that it had?destroyed?more 150 Ukrainian drones in the European part of Russia, as well as the Black Sea, Crimea and the Sea of Azov. Alexander Kravchenko, the mayor of Novorossiysk - a major Russian port located on 'the Black Sea' - said that drone debris had fallen?onto two?facilities. He did not identify these sites. According to the state-run RIA news agency, local emergency services reported that a 'Ukrainian drone' struck a building in construction and a crane at Ufa. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Maxim Rodionov)
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Australia investigates the near-miss collision between two planes at Sydney Airport
The Australian 'Transport Safety Bureau' was informed that a Jetstar A320 and a 'Qatar Airways Boeing 777' narrowly avoided colliding on the tarmac of Sydney airport on Sunday. The regulator reported that the Jetstar flight crew was taxiing to take off for Gold Coast in Queensland when they saw an aircraft tug towing a Qatar Airways plane very close by on a cross-taxiway. The Transport Safety Bureau said that "both aircraft were abruptly stopped" in a press release. The regulator reported that a cabin crew member of the Jetstar aircraft was injured and that the connection between the nose gear of the Qatar Airways plane and the aircraft tug had been damaged. Jetstar, Australia's budget airline, also said that it was looking into the incident. In a press release, a Jetstar spokesperson stated that "our?aircraft?was following Air Traffic Control's instructions when the pilots had to?brake strongly after another aircraft approached in close proximity." Qatar Airways didn't immediately respond to an?ask for comment. Airservices Australia, the government agency responsible for Sydney Airport, had implemented "departure spacing" because of a roster problem with air traffic controllers. Airservices Australia didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment.
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German Minister wants to tie bonuses for Deutsche Bahn to targets
The new German transport minister has said he wants to tie bonuses to the struggling national 'rail operator' meeting government targets. In an interview with 'newspaper Bild am Sonntag published on Sunday, Steffen Bielger said: "It would have a tangible impact on bonuses paid to managers at Deutsche Bahn if the government targets are not met." Transport experts believe that the problems of Deutsche Bahn are due to decades of 'underinvestment' in infrastructure despite an increase in rail usage, as well as 'its status as a JSC aiming to make a profit while providing a public service. Bilger, who was appointed last month and is now in charge of the network, has said that he wants to improve punctuality. He said, "The figures so far are totally inadequate." It will take some time. According to the current agreement, the long-distance train punctuality is supposed to reach 70% by 2029. This is up from around 60% during the first half this year. He said, "There won't be 100% in the near future." "I don’t believe it exists in any other country in Europe." (Written by Dave Graham, edited by Andrea Ricci).
German shippers warn Rhine may be "split into two" by low water
The 'federal association of German inland saftey (BDB) warned on Monday that low water levels could halt cargo traffic this week along a critical stretch of the Rhine, effectively dividing the vital?waterway in two zones.
BDB managing director Jens Schwanen said to the Rheinische Post that water levels at Germany’s Kaub gauge station, which is a major bottleneck in Rhine navigation, were forecast to fall into single digits, for the first time, due to a lack of rain.
Kaub is located south of Koblenz, at the lowest point of the Middle Rhine.
He said that commercial?shipping would no longer be able to transport goods into the?region with such low water levels. The same is true for cruise ships and day trips.
He added: "In theory, the Rhine would then be unable to be navigable for its entire length. It is therefore split in two."
Schwanen stated that shipping will continue between the ports in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp as well as the western German canal network and the northern part the German Rhine. Further south, traffic would take place on the Main, Moselle, and Neckar rivers and the Main-Danube Canal.
This weekend, Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, as ?well as Lower Saxony, ?Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland relaxed ?trucking curbs to ease transport bottlenecks caused by low water levels on rivers including the Rhine. (Writing and editing by Alison Williams; Dave Graham)
(source: Reuters)