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Asia buys cheap Kazakh CPC Oil

According to traders and shipping information, exports of Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend into Asia will remain high in March and in April, after reaching their highest level in over a month, as Chinese and South Korean customers replaced Middle Eastern oil that was more expensive.

After U.S. sanctions against Russian oil, demand for Middle Eastern oil increased and supply became tighter.

The drop in Brent crude against Dubai, the Middle East benchmark, has also opened up the arbitrage window to send Atlantic Basin crude from Asia.

Data from Kpler and OilX shows that CPC crude exports to Asia from Kazakhstan and Russia were at their highest level since October 2023.

Kpler reported a February volume of 478,000 barrels a day, up from 227,000 in January. OilX data showed 336,830, which is more than twice the 126,780 in January.

Kazakhstan's production also reached a new record last month, which sources say helped influence OPEC+ to decide to increase their output in April. CPC's discount to Brent dated reached its widest level in two years due to excess supply.

Richard Jones, analyst at Energy Aspects, said that the downward revisions of the CPC loading program in February led to a grade to discount on the price to Asia.

Kpler data shows that China, with 258,000 bpd of CPC oil, was the top Asian destination in February. This is the highest ever recorded.

A trader reported that Chinese buyers increased their purchases of CPC-loadings for March and April at a premium of $1.50-1.80 per barrel over Brent dated on a cost plus freight basis.

Kpler data revealed that CPC exports in South Korea reached 37,000 bpd in February, after having stagnated since July last year.

South Korean refiners looked for alternatives to Abu Dhabi crude as prices rose after the U.S. imposed harsh sanctions against Russia on January 10. This disrupted oil trade and increased freight rates.

CPC's exports to Asia could ease in May, as Murban is now less expensive and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude has also become more affordable.

Another trader reported that CPC, for arrivals in late May or early June, was being traded at a price slightly higher than Murban and Brent C&F China dated.

Jones stated that CPC exports will likely ease in Asia in May as the price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) is more favorable in Asia.

He added that Kazakhstan also informed OPEC of its intention to compensate for crude overproduction, which would limit the availability.

(source: Reuters)