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Analyst: US tariffs on corn from Ukraine could be beneficial to the country's corn

Analysts said that Ukrainian corn, which is a major component of the grain sector in Ukraine, could benefit from tariffs imposed on the U.S.

U.S. president Donald Trump announced that a minimum 10% tariff would be applied to most imports. However, duties will be significantly higher on products from China and other countries. This is likely going to lead countermeasures which could drive up prices or reduce demand for U.S.-made goods.

Ukraine is one of the world's largest corn producers and exporters.

In a recent statement, ASAP Agri consultancy stated that "if key importers end up imposing duties on U.S. Corn, this will open a large window of opportunity for other suppliers."

The Ukrainian corn market is strong: it has a competitive price, stable logistics and close links with European Union and Asian markets.

The consulting firm said that Brazil was the first to be in line but it's harvest could not cover all of the demand. This is where Ukraine comes in and can claim its share.

Barva Invest is another consultancy that said Ukraine views the U.S. not as a trading partner but rather an export competitor on the market for grains and oilseeds. It also stated that any counter-restrictions imposed by other countries against U.S. imports would have the biggest impact.

The EU, Australia and China will most likely impose these measures. This opens strategic opportunities for Ukraine in areas where it competes with the U.S.

Barva Invest told Telegram Messenger that "first of all, it is the market for corn and soybeans, and more indirectly, for rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and barley."

Ukraine produced 32 metric tons in 2023, and 26 metric tons in 2024. According to the UCAB, the country is expected to export 22 million tons of corn in 2024/25.

Corn export prices are high, so farmers are likely to increase corn plantings this year.

Ukraine harvested a record-breaking 6.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024, and about half of that volume could be export this season.

Ukraine's soybean crop in 2025

Could be

The final volume of the crop will be determined by the amount of rain that falls in May and/or June. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Chizu Omiyama and Ed Osmond

(source: Reuters)