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Analysts say that ocean container shipping rates may reach record levels as the rise in Iran war fuel drives up prices.

Off-contract ocean container shipping rates from China to?U.S. The?East Coast is back to the levels it was at after COVID-19 disrupted global trade and could set new records as U.S.-Israel war on Iran increases fuel costs.

According to data provided by freight pricing platform Xeneta, spot rates for this route have reached $10,948 for a 40-foot container. This is a more than fourfold increase since the beginning of the Iran War on February 28.

Peter Sand, Xeneta’s?chief analysts, stated that the?freight rate on these crucial trades is just short of all-time record set during the COVID-19 interruption. Rates hit a new high of $11,900 for the route in January 2022. Shanghai to New York is one of the busiest and profitable routes for container carriers worldwide, including MSC Maersk COSCO CMA CGM.

Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline after aerial attacks in the Middle East war. The U.S. and Iran attacked and sank some oil tankers on the Strait of Hormuz.

These events have pushed the price of bunker fuel oil (also known as very low-sulfur fuel oil) used by container ships up in 20 ports around the world. According to Ship & Bunker, the marine fuel publisher, it reached $901.50 per metric tonne on Thursday. This is up from $543.50 on February 27, but below the peak of $1053 per metric tonne on March 20, according to Ship & Bunker. Container ship owners recover those higher costs through surcharges and pricing tools.

Sand, speaking of the China-to-East Coast container spot rates, said that fuel surcharges are likely to rise as bunker prices increase. "It is not impossible for the rate to surpass the pandemic high," Sand added. He said that a new record is likely to be set this month with the 'traditional Golden Week volume spike' driven by shippers such as Walmart and Amazon.com who rush goods out of China in order to avoid factories closing early October on a holiday.

Drewry World Container Index data released on Thursday showed that spot rates for 40-foot containers from Shanghai to New York increased by nearly 7% week-over-week to $10,394.

Drewry expects that Golden Week shipments will also send the rate up.

Drewry and Xeneta have different methodologies to calculate their spot?rates. Depending on market dynamics, this can be applied?to about half of the cargo on the sea.

Drewry's WCI Shanghai-New York spot rate peaked early in the pandemic at $16,000 when homebound consumers used federal incentive money to buy furniture, large-screen TVs and home fitness equipment.

(source: Reuters)